Donegal Group - 10-Q quarterly report FY

 

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     Indicate by check mark whether registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to file such reports), and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days. Yes þ   No o

     Indicate by check mark whether the registrant has submitted electronically and posted on its Web site, if any, every Interactive Data File required to be submitted and posted pursuant to Rule 405 of Regulation S-T (§232.405 of this chapter) during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to submit and post such files). Yes o     No o

     Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a large accelerated filer, an accelerated filer, a non-accelerated filer, or a smaller reporting company. See definitions of “large accelerated filer,” “accelerated filer” and “smaller reporting company” in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act. (Check one):

     Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a shell company (as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act). Yes o   No þ

     Indicate the number of shares outstanding of each of the issuer’s classes of common stock, as of the latest practicable date: 19,905,297 shares of Class A Common Stock, par value $0.01 per share, and 5,576,775 shares of Class B Common Stock, par value $0.01 per share, outstanding on July 31, 2009.

See accompanying notes to consolidated financial statements.

Donegal Group Inc. and Subsidiaries
Consolidated Statements of Income
(Unaudited)

Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income
(Unaudited)

See accompanying notes to consolidated financial statements.

Donegal Group Inc. and Subsidiaries
Consolidated Statements of Income
(Unaudited)

Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income
(Unaudited)

See accompanying notes to consolidated financial statements.

Donegal Group Inc. and Subsidiaries
Consolidated Statement of Stockholders’ Equity
(Unaudited)
Six Months Ended June 30, 2009

See accompanying notes to consolidated financial statements.

Donegal Group Inc. and Subsidiaries
Consolidated Statements of Cash Flows
(Unaudited)

See accompanying notes to consolidated financial statements.

     Donegal Mutual Insurance Company (“Donegal Mutual”) organized us as a downstream insurance holding company on August 26, 1986. Our six insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual conduct business as the Donegal Insurance Group. The Donegal Insurance Group writes personal and commercial lines of property and casualty insurance exclusively through a network of independent insurance agents in 18 Mid-Atlantic, Midwest and Southern states. The personal lines products consist primarily of homeowners and private passenger automobile policies. The commercial lines products consist primarily of commercial automobile, commercial multi-peril and workers’ compensation policies.

     Our insurance subsidiaries are Atlantic States Insurance Company (“Atlantic States”), Southern Insurance Company of Virginia (“Southern”), Le Mars Insurance Company (“Le Mars”), the Peninsula Insurance Group (“Peninsula”) which consists of Peninsula Indemnity Company and The Peninsula Insurance Company, and Sheboygan Falls Insurance Company (“Sheboygan”). We also own approximately 48% of the outstanding stock of Donegal Financial Services Corporation (“DFSC”), a thrift holding company that owns Province Bank FSB. Donegal Mutual owns the remaining approximately 52% of the outstanding stock of DFSC.

     At June 30, 2009, Donegal Mutual held approximately 42% of our outstanding Class A common stock and approximately 75% of our outstanding Class B common stock.

     Atlantic States and Donegal Mutual are parties to a pooling agreement under which each company places all of its direct written business in the pool and both companies proportionately share the underwriting results of the pool, excluding certain reinsurance assumed by Donegal Mutual from our five other insurance subsidiaries. From July 1, 2000 through February 29, 2008, Atlantic States had a 70% share of the results of the pool, and Donegal Mutual had a 30% share of the results of the pool. Effective March 1, 2008, Donegal Mutual and Atlantic States amended the pooling agreement to increase Atlantic States’ share of the results of the pool to 80% and to decrease Donegal Mutual’s share of the pool to 20%. In connection with this amendment to the pooling agreement, Donegal Mutual transferred approximately $11.9 million in cash and net liabilities to Atlantic States. See Note 4 — Reinsurance for more information regarding the pooling agreement.

     On March 7, 2007, our board of directors authorized a share repurchase program, pursuant to which we may purchase up to 500,000 shares of our Class A common stock at prices prevailing from time to time in the open market subject to the provisions of Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) Rule 10b-18 and in privately negotiated transactions. We purchased 11,000 and 52,031 shares of our Class A common stock under this program during the three months ended June 30, 2009 and 2008, respectively. We purchased 14,000 and 140,243 shares of our Class A common stock under this program during the six months ended June 30, 2009 and 2008, respectively. We have purchased a total of 494,769 shares of our Class A common stock under this program through June 30, 2009.

     In June 2007, Donegal Mutual consummated an affiliation with Sheboygan. As part of the affiliation, Donegal Mutual made a $3.5 million contribution note investment in Sheboygan. During 2008, Sheboygan’s board of directors adopted a plan of conversion to convert to a stock insurance company. Following policyholder and regulatory approval of the plan of conversion, we acquired Sheboygan as of December 1, 2008 for approximately $12.0 million in cash, including payment of the contribution note and accrued interest to Donegal Mutual. Sheboygan’s results of operations have been included in our consolidated results since December 1, 2008.

     On February 23, 2009, our board of directors authorized a share repurchase program, pursuant to which we may purchase up to 300,000 shares of our Class A common stock at prices prevailing from time to time in the open market subject to the provisions of SEC Rule 10b-18 and in privately negotiated transactions. We did not purchase any shares of our Class A common stock under this program during the six months ended June 30, 2009.

     Our financial information for the interim periods included in this Form 10-Q Report is unaudited; however, such information reflects all adjustments, consisting only of normal recurring adjustments that, in the opinion of our management, are necessary for a fair presentation of our financial position, results of operations and cash flows for the interim periods included in this Form 10-Q Report. Our results of operations for the six months ended June 30, 2009 are not necessarily indicative of the results of operations we expect for the year ending December 31, 2009.

     You should read these interim financial statements in conjunction with the financial statements and notes thereto contained in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2008. As indicated in Note 22 to our financial statements included in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2008, we discovered an immaterial error in the amount recorded for losses and loss expenses incurred for the second quarter of 2008. We adjusted our 2008 financial information included in this Form 10-Q Report to correct this error.

     We have two classes of common stock, which we refer to as our Class A common stock and our Class B common stock. Our certificate of incorporation provides that whenever our board of directors declares a dividend on our Class B common stock, our board of directors must also declare a dividend on our Class A common stock that is payable at the same time to holders as of the same record date at a rate that is at least 10% greater than the rate at which our board of directors declared the dividend on our Class B common stock. Accordingly, we use the two-class method to compute our earnings per common share pursuant to Statement of Financial Accounting Standards (SFAS) No. 128, “Earnings Per Share.” The two-class method is an earnings allocation formula that determines earnings per share separately for each class of common stock based on dividends declared and an allocation of the remaining undistributed earnings using a participation percentage that reflects the dividend rights of each class. The table below presents a reconciliation of the numerators and denominators we use to compute basic and diluted net income per share for each class of stock:

     We did not include options to purchase the following number of shares of Class A common stock in our computation of diluted earnings per share because the exercise price of the options was greater than the average market price during the relevant period:

     Atlantic States has participated in a pooling agreement with Donegal Mutual since 1986 under which each company places all of its direct written business into the pool, and Atlantic States and Donegal Mutual then share the underwriting results of the pool in accordance with the terms of the pooling agreement. From July 1, 2000 through February 29, 2008, Atlantic States had a 70% share of the results of the pool, and Donegal Mutual had a 30% share of the results of the pool. Effective March 1, 2008, Donegal Mutual and Atlantic States amended the pooling agreement to increase Atlantic States’ share of the results of the pool to 80%. Donegal Mutual transferred approximately $11.9 million of cash and net liabilities to Atlantic States in connection with this amendment to the pooling agreement as of March 1, 2008 as follows:

     Atlantic States, Southern and Donegal Mutual purchase third-party reinsurance on a combined basis. Le Mars, Peninsula and Sheboygan have separate third-party reinsurance programs that provide similar types of coverage and that are commensurate with their relative size and risk exposures. Our insurance subsidiaries place reinsurance with various reinsurers, all of which, consistent with Donegal Insurance Group’s requirements, have an A.M. Best rating of A- (Excellent) or better or, with respect to foreign reinsurers, have a financial condition that, in the opinion of our management, is equivalent to a company with at least an A- rating. The following information relates to the external reinsurance Atlantic States, Southern and Donegal Mutual have in place during 2009 and 2008:

     Our insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual also purchase facultative reinsurance to cover exposures from losses that exceed the limits provided by their reinsurance agreements with third parties.

     In addition to the pooling agreement and third-party reinsurance, our insurance subsidiaries have various reinsurance agreements with Donegal Mutual.

     We renewed our 2009 reinsurance program at rates comparable to 2008, largely attributable to our decision to increase our excess of loss reinsurance retention from $600,000 to $750,000 effective January 1, 2009. We made no other significant changes to our third-party reinsurance or other reinsurance agreements between our insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual during the six months ended June 30, 2009.

     The amortized cost and estimated fair values of our fixed maturities and equity securities at June 30, 2009 are as follows:

     The amortized cost and estimated fair values of our fixed maturities and equity securities at December 31, 2008 are as follows:

     The amortized cost and estimated fair value of our fixed maturities at June 30, 2009, by contractual maturity, are shown below. Expected maturities may differ from contractual maturities because borrowers may have the right to call or prepay obligations with or without call or prepayment penalties.

     Gross realized gains and losses from investments before applicable income taxes are as follows:

     We held fixed maturities and equity securities with unrealized losses representing declines that we considered temporary at June 30, 2009 as follows:

     We held fixed maturities and equity securities with unrealized losses representing declines that we considered temporary at December 31, 2008 as follows:

     Of our total fixed maturity securities with an unrealized loss at June 30, 2009, we classified 135 securities with a fair value of $154.0 million and an unrealized loss of $5.6 million as available-for-sale and carried them at fair value on our balance sheet, while we classified 11 securities with a fair value of $12.9 million and an unrealized loss of $246,568 as held-to-maturity on our balance sheet and carried them at amortized cost.

     Of our total fixed maturity securities with an unrealized loss at December 31, 2008, we classified 179 securities with a fair value of $184.1 million and an unrealized loss of $10.8 million as available-for-sale and carried them at fair value on our balance sheet, while we classified 23 securities with a fair value of $24.1 million and an unrealized loss of $652,450 as held-to-maturity on our balance sheet and carried them at amortized cost.

     We have no direct exposure to sub-prime residential mortgage-backed securities and hold no collateralized debt obligations. Substantially all of the unrealized losses in our fixed maturity investment

portfolio have resulted from general market conditions and the related impact on our fixed maturity investment valuations. We make estimates concerning the valuation of our investments and the recognition of other-than-temporary declines in the value of our investments. For equity securities, when we consider the decline in value of an individual investment to be other than temporary, we write the investment down to its fair value, and we reflect the amount of the write-down as a realized loss in our results of operations. We individually monitor all investments for other-than-temporary declines in value. Generally, if an individual equity security has depreciated in value by more than 20% of original cost, and has been in such an unrealized loss position for more than six months, we assume there has been an other-than-temporary decline in value. We held three equity securities that were in an unrealized loss position at June 30, 2009. Based upon our analysis of general market conditions and underlying factors impacting these equity securities, we consider these declines in value to be temporary. With respect to a debt security that is in an unrealized loss position, we first assess if we intend to sell the debt security. If we intend to sell the debt security, we recognize the impairment loss in our results of operations. If we do not intend to sell the debt security, we determine whether it is more likely than not that we will be required to sell the security prior to recovery. If it is more likely than not that we will be required to sell the debt security prior to recovery, we recognize an impairment loss in our results of operations. If it is more likely than not that we will not be required to sell the debt security prior to recovery, we then evaluate whether a credit loss has occurred. To determine whether a credit loss has occurred, we compare the amortized cost of the debt security to the present value of the cash flows we expect to collect. If we expect a cash flow shortfall, we consider a credit loss to have occurred. If we consider a credit loss to have occurred, we consider the impairment to be other than temporary. We then recognize the amount of the impairment loss related to the credit loss in our results of operations, and we recognize the remaining portion of the impairment loss in our other comprehensive income, net of applicable taxes. In addition, we may write down securities in an unrealized loss position based on a number of other factors, including the fair value of the investment being significantly below its cost, whether the financial condition of the issuer of a security is deteriorating, the occurrence of industry, company and geographic events that have negatively impacted the value of a security and rating agency downgrades. We determined that no investments trading below cost had declined on an other-than-temporary basis during the first six months of 2009. We determined that certain investments trading below cost had declined on an other-than-temporary basis and included losses of $851,085 in our results of operations for these investments during the first six months of 2008.

     We amortize premiums and discounts on debt securities over the life of the security as an adjustment to yield using the effective interest method. We compute realized investment gains and losses using the specific identification method.

     We amortize premiums and discounts for mortgage-backed debt securities using anticipated prepayments.

     We account for investments in affiliates using the equity method of accounting in accordance with Accounting Principles Board (APB) Opinion No. 18, “The Equity Method of Accounting for Investments in Common Stock.” Under the equity method, we record our investment at cost, with adjustments for our share of affiliate earnings and losses as well as changes in affiliate equity due to unrealized gains and losses.

     We evaluate the performance of our personal lines and commercial lines segments based upon the underwriting results of our insurance subsidiaries as determined under statutory accounting principles prescribed or permitted by various state insurance departments (“SAP”). Our management uses SAP to measure the performance of our insurance subsidiaries instead of United States generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”). Financial data by segment is as follows:

     On October 29, 2003, we received $10.0 million in net proceeds from the issuance of subordinated debentures. The debentures mature on October 29, 2033 and are callable at our option, at par, after October 29, 2008. The debentures carry an interest rate equal to the three-month LIBOR rate plus 3.85%, which is adjustable quarterly. At June 30, 2009, the interest rate on the debentures was 4.90%.

     On May 24, 2004, we received $5.0 million in net proceeds from the issuance of subordinated debentures. The debentures mature on May 24, 2034 and are callable at our option, at par, after May 24, 2009. The debentures carry an interest rate equal to the three-month LIBOR rate plus 3.85%, which is adjustable quarterly. At June 30, 2009, the interest rate on the debentures was 4.51%.

     Effective January 1, 2006, we adopted SFAS No. 123(R), “Share-Based Payment” which requires the measurement of all share-based payments to employees, including grants of stock options, using a fair-value-based method and the recording of such expense in our consolidated statements of income. In determining the expense we recorded for stock options granted to directors and employees of our subsidiaries and affiliates other than Donegal Mutual, the fair value of each option award is estimated on the date of grant using the Black-Scholes option pricing model. The significant assumptions we utilized in applying the Black-Scholes option pricing model are the risk-free interest rate, expected term, dividend yield and expected volatility.

     Under SFAS No. 123(R), the compensation expense for our stock compensation plans that we charged against income before income taxes was $48,691 and $43,070 for the three months ended June 30, 2009 and 2008, respectively, with a corresponding income tax benefit of $17,042 and $15,075, respectively. The compensation expense for our stock compensation plans that we charged against income before income taxes was $110,391 and $86,696 for the six months ended June 30, 2009 and 2008, respectively, with a corresponding income tax benefit of $38,637 and $30,344, respectively. As of June 30, 2009, our total unrecognized compensation cost related to nonvested share-based compensation granted under our stock compensation plans was $133,521. We expect to recognize this cost over a weighted average period of 2.6 years.

     SFAS No. 123(R) does not establish accounting requirements for share-based compensation to nonemployees. We continue to account for share-based compensation to employees and directors of Donegal Mutual under the provisions of FIN No. 44 and EITF 00-23, which state that when we grant share-based compensation to employees of a controlling entity, we should measure the fair value of the award at the grant date and recognize the fair value as a dividend to the controlling entity. These provisions apply to options we granted to employees and directors of Donegal Mutual, the employer of a majority of the employees that provide services to us. We recorded implied dividends of $5,298 and $0 for the three months ended June 30, 2009 and 2008, respectively. We recorded implied dividends of $32,923 and $39,964 for the six months ended June 30, 2009 and 2008, respectively.

     We received cash from option exercises under all stock compensation plans for the three months ended June 30, 2009 and 2008 of $0 and $104,845, respectively. We realized tax benefits for the tax deductions from option exercises of share-based compensation of $0 and $6,824 for the three months ended June 30, 2009 and 2008, respectively. We received cash from option exercises under all stock compensation plans for the six months ended June 30, 2009 and 2008 of $0 and $1,449,643, respectively. We realized tax benefits for the tax deductions from option exercises of share-based compensation of $0 and $631,757 for the six months ended June 30, 2009 and 2008, respectively.

     As of January 1, 2008, we adopted SFAS No. 157, “Fair Value Measurements,” which defines fair value, establishes a framework for measuring fair value under GAAP and requires expanded disclosures about fair value measurements. SFAS No. 157 establishes a hierarchy that ranks the quality and reliability of inputs, or assumptions, used in the determination of fair value and requires financial assets and liabilities carried at fair value to be classified and disclosed in one of the following three categories:

     Level 1 — quoted prices in active markets for identical assets and liabilities;

     Level 2 — directly or indirectly observable inputs other than Level 1 quoted prices; and

     Level 3 — unobservable inputs not corroborated by market data.

     For investments that have quoted market prices in active markets, we use the quoted market price as fair value and include these investments in Level 1 of the fair value hierarchy. We classify publicly traded equity securities as Level 1. When quoted market prices in active markets are not available, we base fair values on quoted market prices of comparable instruments or broker quotes we obtain from independent pricing services through a bank trustee. We classify our fixed maturity investments as Level 2. Our fixed maturity investments consist of U.S. Treasury securities and obligations of U.S, government corporations and agencies, obligations of states and political subdivisions, corporate securities and residential mortgage-backed securities. We had no investments classified as Level 3 at June 30, 2009.

     We present our investments in available-for-sale fixed maturity and equity securities at estimated fair value. The estimated fair value of a security may differ from the amount that could be realized if the security was sold in a forced transaction. In addition, the valuation of fixed maturity investments is more subjective when markets are less liquid, increasing the potential that the estimated fair value does not reflect the price at which an actual transaction would occur. We utilize nationally recognized independent pricing services to estimate fair values for our fixed maturity and equity investments. We generally obtain one price per security. The pricing services utilize market quotations for fixed maturity and equity securities that have quoted prices in active markets. For fixed maturity securities that generally do not trade on a daily basis, the pricing services prepare estimates of fair value measurements using proprietary pricing applications, which include available relevant market information, benchmark yields, sector curves and matrix pricing. The pricing services do not use broker quotes in determining the fair values of our investments. We review the

estimates of fair value provided by the pricing services to determine if the estimates obtained are representative of market prices based upon our general knowledge of the market, our research findings related to unusual fluctuations in value and our comparison of such values to execution prices for similar securities. As of June 30, 2009 and 2008, we received one estimate per security from one of the pricing services and we priced all but an insignificant amount of our fixed maturity and equity investments using those prices. In our review of the estimates provided by the pricing services as of June 30, 2009 and December 31, 2008, we did not identify any discrepancies and we did not make any adjustments to the estimates the pricing services provided.

     We present our cash and short-term investments at estimated fair value. The carrying value in the balance sheet for premium and reinsurance receivables and payables approximate their fair values. The carrying amounts reported in the balance sheet for our subordinated debentures approximate their fair values due to their variable rate nature.

     We evaluate assets and liabilities on a recurring basis to determine the appropriate level at which to classify them for each reporting period. The following table presents our fair value measurements for our investments in available-for-sale fixed maturity and equity securities as of June 30, 2009:

     The following table presents our fair value measurements for our investments in available-for-sale fixed maturity and equity securities as of December 31, 2008:

     Effective January 1, 2007, we adopted Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) Interpretation No. 48, “Accounting for Uncertainty in Income Taxes, an interpretation of FASB Statement No. 109.” As of June 30, 2009 and June 30, 2008, respectively, we had no material unrecognized tax benefits or accrued interest and penalties. Our 2006 federal tax return is under audit, and tax years 2005, 2007 and 2008 remained open for examination as of June 30, 2009.

     In April 2009, the FASB issued FASB Staff Position (FSP) FAS 115-2 and Financial Accounting Standard (FAS) 124-2, Recognition and Presentation of Other-Than-Temporary Impairments. FSP FAS 115-2 and FAS 124-2 provide guidance designed to create greater clarity and consistency in accounting for and presenting impairment losses on debt and equity securities. FSP FAS 115-2 and FAS 124-2 are effective for interim and annual periods ending after June 15, 2009, with early adoption permitted for interim and annual periods ending after March 15, 2009. Effective April 1, 2009, we adopted FSP FAS 115-2 and FAS 124-2. For the interim period ended June 30, 2009, there was no cumulative effect adjustment as all securities determined to be other-than-temporary-impaired in previous periods have been sold. Beginning on April 1, 2009, we analyzed our debt securities for other-than-temporary-impairment adjustments using guidance in FSP FAS 115-2 and FAS 124-2.

     In April 2009, the FASB issued FSP FAS 157-4, “Determining Fair Value When the Volume and Level of Activity for the Asset or Liability Have Significantly Decreased and Identifying Transactions That Are Not Orderly.” FSP FAS 157-4 provides guidelines for making fair value measurements that are more consistent with the principles presented in SFAS No. 157, “Fair Value Measurements.” FSP FAS 157-4 is effective for interim and annual periods ending after June 15, 2009, with early adoption permitted for interim and annual periods ending after March 15, 2009. Effective April 1, 2009, we adopted FSP FAS 157-4. The adoption of FSP FAS 157-4 expanded certain fair value disclosures but had no effect on our results of operations, financial condition or liquidity.

     In April 2009, the FASB issued FSP FAS 107-1 and Accounting Principles Board (APB) 28-1, “Interim Disclosures about Fair Value of Financial Instruments.” FSP FAS 107-1 and APB 28-1 amend FASB Statement No. 107, “Disclosures about Fair Value of Financial Instruments,” to require disclosures about fair value of financial instruments for interim periods as well as in annual financial statements. FSP FAS 107-1 and APB 28-1 are effective for interim and annual periods ending after June 30, 2009, with early adoption permitted for interim and annual periods ending after March 15, 2009. Effective June 30, 2009, we adopted FSP FAS 107-1 and APB 28-1. Footnote 9 includes the disclosures required by FSP FAS 107-1 and APB 28-1.

     In May 2009, the FASB issued FAS 165, “Subsequent Events”. FAS 165 establishes general standards of accounting for and disclosure of events that occur after the balance sheet date but before financial statements are issued or are available to be issued. FAS165 is effective for interim and annual periods ending after June 15, 2009. Effective June 30, 2009, we adopted FAS 165. We have evaluated subsequent events for potential recognition or disclosure through August 7, 2009, the date we issued the consolidated financial statements included in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q.

     You should read the following information in conjunction with the historical financial information and the notes thereto included in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q and Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations contained in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2008.

     Our financial statements are combined with those of our insurance subsidiaries and are presented on a consolidated basis in accordance with GAAP.

     Our insurance subsidiaries make estimates and assumptions that can have a significant effect on amounts and disclosures that we report in our financial statements. The most significant estimates relate to our insurance subsidiaries’ reserves for property and casualty insurance unpaid losses and loss expenses, valuation of investments and determination of other-than-temporary impairment in the value of investments and policy acquisition costs. While we believe our estimates and the estimates of our insurance subsidiaries are appropriate, the ultimate amounts may differ from the amounts estimated. We regularly review these estimates and reflect any adjustment considered necessary in our current results of operations.

     Liabilities for unpaid losses and loss expenses are estimates at a given point in time of the amounts an insurer expects to pay with respect to policyholder claims based on facts and circumstances then known. An insurer recognizes at the time of establishing its estimates that its ultimate liability for unpaid losses and loss expenses will exceed or be less than those estimates. Our insurance subsidiaries base their estimates of liabilities for unpaid losses and loss expenses on assumptions as to future loss trends and expected claims severity, judicial theories of liability and other factors, including prevailing economic conditions. However, during the loss adjustment period, our insurance subsidiaries may learn additional facts regarding individual claims, and, consequently, it often becomes necessary for our insurance subsidiaries to adjust their estimates of liability. Our insurance subsidiaries reflect any adjustments to their liabilities for unpaid losses and loss expenses in their results of operations for the period in which we change our estimates.

     Our insurance subsidiaries maintain liabilities for the payment of unpaid losses and loss expenses with respect to both reported and unreported claims. It is the intent of our insurance subsidiaries that their liabilities for loss expenses will cover the ultimate costs of settling all losses, including investigation and litigation costs from those losses. Our insurance subsidiaries base the amount of their liabilities for reported losses primarily upon a case-by-case evaluation of the type of risk involved, knowledge of the circumstances surrounding each claim and the provisions of our insurance policies relating to the type of loss. Our insurance subsidiaries determine the amount of their liabilities for unreported claims and loss expenses on the basis of historical information by line of insurance. Our insurance subsidiaries account for inflation in the reserving function through analysis of costs and trends and reviews of historical reserving results. Our insurance subsidiaries closely monitor their liabilities and recompute them periodically using new information on reported claims and a variety of statistical techniques. Our insurance subsidiaries do not discount their liabilities for unpaid losses and loss expenses.

     Our liability estimates can change over time because of unexpected changes in assumptions related to our insurance subsidiaries’ external environment and, to a lesser extent, assumptions as to our insurance subsidiaries’ internal operations. For example, our insurance subsidiaries have experienced a decrease in claims frequency on workers’ compensation claims during the past several years while claims severity has gradually increased. These trend changes give rise to greater uncertainty as to the pattern of future loss settlements on bodily injury claims. Related uncertainties regarding future trends include the cost of medical technologies and procedures and changes in the utilization of medical procedures. Assumptions related to our insurance subsidiaries’ external environment include the absence of significant changes in tort law and the legal environment that increase liability exposure, consistency in judicial interpretations of insurance coverage and policy provisions and the rate of loss cost inflation. Internal assumptions include accurate measurement of the impact of rate changes and changes in policy provisions and consistency in the quality and characteristics of business written within a given line of business among other items. To the extent our insurance subsidiaries determine that underlying factors impacting their assumptions have changed, our insurance subsidiaries make adjustments they consider appropriate for those changes in their liabilities. Accordingly, our insurance subsidiaries’ ultimate liability for unpaid losses and loss expenses will likely differ from the amount recorded at June 30, 2009. For every 1% change in our estimate of our insurance subsidiaries’ liability for unpaid losses and loss expenses, net of reinsurance recoverable, the effect on our pre-tax results of operations would be approximately $1.7 million.

     The establishment of appropriate liabilities is an inherently uncertain process. There can be no assurance that the ultimate liability of our insurance subsidiaries will not exceed our insurance subsidiaries’ unpaid loss and loss expense reserves and have an adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition. Furthermore, we cannot predict the timing, frequency and extent of adjustments to our insurance subsidiaries’ estimated future liabilities, since the historical conditions and events that serve as a basis for our insurance subsidiaries’ estimates of ultimate claim costs may change. As is the case for substantially all property and casualty insurance companies, our insurance subsidiaries have found it necessary in the past to increase their estimated future liabilities for unpaid losses and loss expenses in certain periods, and in other periods their estimates have exceeded their actual liabilities. Changes in our insurance subsidiaries’ estimate of their liability for unpaid losses and loss expenses generally reflect actual payments and the evaluation of information received since the prior reporting date.

     Excluding the impact of severe weather events, our insurance subsidiaries have noted slight downward trends in the number of claims incurred and the number of claims outstanding at period ends relative to their premium base in recent years across most of their lines of business. However, the amount of the average claim outstanding has increased gradually over the past several years as the property and casualty insurance industry has experienced increased litigation trends, periods in which economic

conditions extended the estimated length of disabilities, increased medical loss cost trends and a general slowing of settlement rates in litigated claims. We may make adjustments in the future to reflect subsequent developments. However, on the basis of our insurance subsidiaries’ internal procedures, which analyze, among other things, their prior assumptions, their experience with similar cases and historical trends such as reserving patterns, loss payments, pending levels of unpaid claims and product mix, as well as court decisions, economic conditions and public attitudes, we believe that our insurance subsidiaries have made adequate provision for their liability for unpaid losses and loss expenses as of June 30, 2009.

     Atlantic States’ participation in the pool with Donegal Mutual exposes it to adverse loss development on the business of Donegal Mutual that is included in the pool. However, pooled business represents the predominant percentage of the net underwriting activity of both companies, and Donegal Mutual and Atlantic States share any adverse risk development of the pooled business according to their respective participation in the pool. The business in the pool is homogeneous and each company has a percentage share of the entire pool as provided in the pooling agreement. Since substantially all of the business of Atlantic States and Donegal Mutual is pooled and the results shared by each company according to its respective participation level under the terms of the pooling agreement, the intent of the underwriting pool is to produce a more uniform and stable underwriting result from year to year for each company than they would experience individually and to spread the risk of loss between Atlantic States and Donegal Mutual.

     The risk profiles of the business Atlantic States and Donegal Mutual write have historically been, and continue to be, substantially similar. The same executive management and underwriting personnel administer products, classes of business underwritten, pricing practices and underwriting standards of Donegal Mutual and our insurance subsidiaries.

     In addition, Donegal Mutual and our insurance subsidiaries, operating together as the Donegal Insurance Group share a combined business plan to achieve market penetration and underwriting profitability objectives. The products our insurance subsidiaries and Donegal Mutual offer are generally complementary, thereby allowing Donegal Insurance Group to offer a broader range of products to a given market and to expand Donegal Insurance Group’s ability to service an entire personal lines or commercial lines account. Distinctions within the products of Donegal Mutual and our insurance subsidiaries generally relate to specific risk profiles targeted within similar classes of business, such as preferred tier products compared to standard tier products, but we do not allocate all of the standard risk gradients to one company. Therefore, the underwriting profitability of the business directly written by the individual companies will vary. However, as the risk characteristics of all business written directly by Donegal Mutual and Atlantic States are homogenized within the pool and each company shares the results according to each company’s participation level, each company realizes its pro rata share of the underwriting results of the pool.

     Our insurance subsidiaries’ unpaid liability for losses and loss expenses by major line of business as of June 30, 2009 and December 31, 2008 consisted of the following:

     We have evaluated the effect on our insurance subsidiaries’ unpaid loss and loss expense reserves and our stockholders’ equity in the event of reasonably likely changes in the variables we considered in establishing the loss and loss expense reserves of our insurance subsidiaries. We established the range of reasonably likely changes based on a review of changes in accident year development by line of business and applied those changes to our insurance subsidiaries’ loss reserves as a whole. The selected range does not necessarily indicate what could be the potential best or worst case or the most likely scenario. The following table sets forth the estimated effect on our insurance subsidiaries’ unpaid loss and loss expense reserves and our stockholders’ equity in the event of reasonably likely changes in the variables considered in establishing loss and loss expense reserves: