SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
FORM 10-K
Annual Report Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the
Securities Exchange Act of 1934
For the Fiscal Year Ended
Commission File
December 31, 2003
No. 1-13653
Incorporated under
IRS Employer I.D.
the Laws of Ohio
No. 31-1544320
One East Fourth Street, Cincinnati, Ohio 45202
(513) 579-2121
Securities Registered Pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:
Name of Each Exchange
Title of Each Class
on which Registered
American Financial Group, Inc.:
Common Stock
New York Stock Exchange
7-1/8% Senior Debentures due December 15, 2007
7-1/8% Senior Debentures due April 15, 2009
7-1/8% Senior Debentures due February 3, 2034
Securities Registered Pursuant to Section 12(g) of the Act:
Other securities for which reports are submitted pursuant to Section 15(d) of the Act:
Senior Convertible Notes due June 2, 2033
Indicate by check mark whether the Registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months, and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days. Yes X No
Indicate by check mark if disclosure of delinquent filers pursuant to Item 405 of Regulation S-K is not contained herein, and need not be contained, to the best of registrant's knowledge, in definitive proxy or information statements incorporated by reference in Part III of this Form 10-K or any amendment to this Form 10-K. [X]
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an accelerated filer. Yes X No
State the aggregate market value of the voting and non-voting common equity held by non-affiliates computed by reference to the price at which the common equity was last sold, or the average bid and asked price of such common equity, as of the last business day of the registrant's most recently completed second fiscal quarter: $926.7 million (based upon nonaffiliate holdings of 40,644,434 shares and a market price of $22.80 per share at June 30, 2003). Comparable data at March 1, 2004, is $1,334.4 million (based on nonaffiliate holdings of 44,185,471 shares and a market price of $30.20 per share).
Indicate the number of shares outstanding of each of the registrant's classes of common stock, as of the latest practicable date: 73,227,778 shares (excluding 9,953,392 shares owned by a subsidiary) as of March 1, 2004.
_____________
Documents Incorporated by Reference:
Proxy Statement for 2004 Annual Meeting of Stockholders (portions of which are incorporated by reference into Part III hereof).
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC.
INDEX TO ANNUA
ON FORM 10-K
Page
Item 4 - Submission of Matters to a Vote of Security Holders
(a)
Item 9 - Changes in and Disagreements with Accountants on
Accounting and Financial Disclosure
(a) The response to this Item is "none".
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
This Form 10-K, chiefly in Items 1, 3, 5, 7 and 8, contains certain forward-looking statements that are subject to numerous assumptions, risks or uncertainties. The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a safe harbor for forward-looking statements. Some of the forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking words such as "anticipates", "believes", "expects", "estimates", "intends", "plans", "seeks", "could", "may", "should", "will" or the negative version of those words or other comparable terminology. Examples of such forward-looking statements include statements relating to: expectations concerning market and other conditions and their effect on future premiums, revenues, earnings and investment activities; recoverability of asset values; expected losses and the adequacy of reserves for asbestos, environmental pollution and mass tort claims; rate increases, and improved loss experience.
Actual results could differ materially from those contained in or implied by such forward-looking statements for a variety of factors including:
The forward-looking statements herein are made only as of the date of this report. The Company assumes no obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statements.
PART I
ITEM 1
Business
Please refer to "Forward-Looking Statements" following the Index in front of this Form 10-K.
Introduction
American Financial Group, Inc. ("AFG") is a holding company which, through subsidiaries, is engaged primarily in property and casualty insurance, focusing on specialized commercial products for businesses, and in the sale of retirement annuities, life, and supplemental health insurance products. AFG was incorporated as an Ohio corporation in 1997; its predecessor holding company originated in 1955. Its insurance subsidiaries have been operating as far back as the 1800's. Its address is One East Fourth Street, Cincinnati, Ohio 45202; its phone number is (513) 579-2121. SEC filings, news releases and other information may be accessed free of charge through AFG's Internet site at: www.amfnl.com.
At December 31, 2003, Carl H. Lindner, members of his immediate family and trusts for their benefit (collectively the "Lindner Family") beneficially owned approximately 42% of AFG's outstanding voting Common Stock.
Over the years, AFG and its predecessors have owned, operated, and invested in businesses in a variety of industries and geographic areas, culminating in today's group of insurance companies. Generally, AFG's interests have been in the following areas: insurance, savings and loan, leasing, banking, real estate, communications/ entertainment and food distribution. A small number of opportunistic investments have been made in troubled and other undervalued assets.
Recent Transactions
Early in 2003, AFG began an analysis of alternatives to simplify its corporate structure and promote easier oversight, analysis and operation of its subsidiaries. As a result, mergers and a recapitalization were consummated. Committees of independent directors conducted the analyses with the counsel of recognized outside experts and approved each of the transactions. In November, AFG merged with two of its subsidiaries, American Financial Corporation ("AFC") and AFC Holding Company with AFC's Series J preferred stock being acquired and retired in exchange for approximately 3.3 million shares of AFG Common Stock (aggregate value of $75 million). In addition, approximately $170 million in deferred tax liabilities associated with AFC's holding of AFG stock were eliminated. As of January 31, 2004, American Premier Underwriters, Inc. ("APU", a wholly-owned subsidiary) paid an extraordinary dividend consisting of approximately two-thirds of its assets, including its insurance subsidiaries, to its imme diate parent, APU Holding Company, and retained sufficient assets to enable it to meet its estimated liabilities.
In the fourth quarter of 2003, AFG pursued a sale of Transport Insurance Company, an inactive property and casualty subsidiary with only run-off liabilities, including old asbestos and environmental claims. Transport's asbestos and environmental ("A&E") reserves represent approximately 12% of AFG's total net A&E reserves. Although a transaction has not been consummated, AFG recorded a $55 million impairment charge at December 31, 2003, to reduce its investment in Transport to estimated fair value, based on negotiations with potential buyers.
Infinity Property and Casualty Corporation ("Infinity") was incorporated in September 2002 as a wholly-owned subsidiary of AFG. On December 31, 2002, AFG transferred to Infinity the following subsidiaries: Atlanta Casualty Company, Infinity Insurance Company, Leader Insurance Company and Windsor Insurance Company. In exchange, AFG received all of the issued and outstanding shares of Infinity common stock and a $55 million 10-year promissory note (paid off in July 2003). In addition, effective January 1, 2003, Great American Insurance Company ("GAI"), an AFG
1
subsidiary, transferred to Infinity its personal insurance business written through independent agents. In 2002 and 2001, these businesses represented 28% and 35%, respectively, of AFG's property and casualty group's net written premiums. In a February 2003 public offering, AFG sold 61% of Infinity for net proceeds of $186.3 million. In December 2003, AFG sold its remaining shares of Infinity for net proceeds of $214 million. AFG realized a net pretax gain of $17.1 million on the two sales of Infinity stock.
In April 2003, AFG sold subsidiaries that market automobile insurance directly to customers for $32.2 million, realizing a pretax gain of $3.4 million on the sale. These businesses generated approximately 3% of AFG's net written premiums in 2002.
In connection with the February 2003 sale of Infinity, AFG subsidiaries continue to write certain business for, and fully reinsure it to, Infinity. In 2003, AFG subsidiaries ceded $96 million in premiums to Infinity (subsequent to the sale). When GAI sold its Japanese division in 2001 and its commercial lines division in 1998, it had similar arrangements, each of which lasted about three years.
The businesses discussed above are included in the tables and financial statements herein through their respective disposal dates.
Property and Casualty Insurance Operations
Prior to the sale of Infinity and the direct-to-consumer auto businesses in 2003, AFG's property and casualty group was engaged primarily in specialty and private passenger automobile insurance businesses, which were managed as two major business groups: Specialty and Personal. The businesses sold represented nearly all of the Personal group. AFG's remaining Personal lines business generated less than 3% of net written premiums in 2003.
The property and casualty group reports to a single senior executive and is comprised of multiple business units which operate autonomously but with certain strong central controls and full accountability. The decentralized approach allows each unit the autonomy necessary to respond to local and specialty market conditions while capitalizing on the efficiencies of centralized investment and administrative support functions. AFG's property and casualty insurance operations employ approximately 4,400 persons.
The property and casualty group operates in a highly competitive industry that is affected by many factors which can cause significant fluctuations in its results of operations. The industry has historically been subject to pricing cycles characterized by periods of intense competition and lower premium rates (a "downcycle") followed by periods of reduced competition, reduced underwriting capacity due to lower policyholders' surplus and higher premium rates (an "upcycle"). After being in an extended downcycle for over a decade, the property and casualty insurance industry has experienced significant market firming and price increases in certain specialty markets.
The primary objective of AFG's property and casualty insurance operations is to achieve solid underwriting profitability while providing excellent service to its policyholders. Underwriting profitability is measured by the combined ratio which is a sum of the ratios of underwriting losses, loss adjustment expenses ("LAE"), underwriting expenses and policyholder dividends to premiums. When the combined ratio is under 100%, underwriting results are generally considered profitable; when the ratio is over 100%, underwriting results are generally considered unprofitable. The combined ratio does not reflect investment income, other income or federal income taxes.
While many costs included in underwriting may be readily determined (commissions, administrative expenses, and many of the losses on claims reported), the process of determining overall underwriting results is also highly dependent upon the use of estimates in the case of losses incurred or expected but not yet reported or developed. Actuarial procedures and projections are used to obtain "best estimates" which are then included in the overall results. While the process is imprecise and develops amounts which are subject to change over time, AFG's
2
projections, excluding asbestos and environmental ("A&E") claims, have generally been close to the developed ultimate results, as can be seen in the "reserve development triangles" on page 11.
AFG's property and casualty group, like many others in the industry, has A&E claims arising in most cases from general liability policies written in years before 1987. The establishment of reserves for such A&E claims presents unique and difficult challenges and is subject to uncertainties significantly greater than those presented by other types of claims.
In February 2003, GAI entered into an agreement for the settlement of asbestos-related coverage litigation from insurance policies issued in the 1970's and 1980's. Management believes that the $123.5 million settlement (GAI has the option to pay in cash or over time with 5.25% interest) with parties related to and known as A.P. Green Industries, Inc. will enhance financial certainty and provide resolution to litigation that represents AFG's largest known asbestos-related claim and the only such claim that management believes to be material. For a discussion of uncertainties related to A&E claims, see Management's Discussion and Analysis - "Asbestos and Environmental-related Reserves."
Management's focus on underwriting performance has resulted in a statutory combined ratio averaging 105.1% for the period 1999 to 2003 (or 104.0% excluding special charges in 2002 and 2001 related to asbestos and other environmental matters), as compared to 108.2% for the property and casualty industry over the same period (Source: "Best's Review/Preview - Property/Casualty" - January 2004 Edition). AFG believes that its product line diversification and underwriting discipline have contributed to the Company's ability to consistently outperform the industry's underwriting results. Management's philosophy is to refrain from writing business that is not expected to produce an underwriting profit even if it is necessary to limit premium growth to do so.
Generally, while financial data is reported on a statutory basis for insurance regulatory purposes, it is reported in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP") for shareholder and other investment purposes. In general, statutory accounting results in lower capital and surplus and lower net earnings than result from application of GAAP. Major differences include charging policy acquisition costs to expense as incurred rather than spreading the costs over the periods covered by the policies; reporting investment-grade bonds and redeemable preferred stocks at amortized cost; netting of reinsurance recoverables and prepaid reinsurance premiums against the corresponding liability; requiring additional loss reserves; and charging to surplus certain assets, such as furniture and fixtures and agents' balances over 90 days old.
Unless indicated otherwise, the financial information presented for the property and casualty insurance operations herein is presented based on GAAP.
The following table shows (in millions) certain information of AFG's property and casualty insurance operations.
2003
2002
2001
Statutory Basis
Premiums Earned
$1,873
$ 2,372
$ 2,566
Admitted Assets
6,499
7,233
6,736
Unearned Premiums
981
1,168
1,158
Loss and LAE Reserves (net)
3,035
3,607
3,539
Capital and Surplus
1,814
1,742
1,669
GAAP Basis
$1,909
$ 2,403
$ 2,594
Total Assets
9,979
10,927
10,007
1,595
1,848
1,641
Loss and LAE Reserves (gross)(*)
4,909
5,204
4,778
Shareholder's Equity
2,884
3,241
3,288
(*) GAAP loss and LAE reserves net of reinsurance recoverable
were $2.9 billion at December 31, 2003, $3.4 billion at
December 31, 2002, and $3.3 billion at December 31, 2001.
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The following table shows the independent ratings and 2003 net written premiums (in millions) of AFG's major property and casualty insurance subsidiaries. AFG continues to focus on growth opportunities in what it believes to be more profitable specialty businesses.
Company (Ratings - AM Best/S&P)
Net Written Premiums
Ongoing Businesses
Great American Pool(*)
A
$1,059
Republic Indemnity
A-
273
Mid-Continent
248
American Empire Surplus Lines
161
National Interstate
n/a
149
Other
16
Businesses sold in 2003 through sale date
Infinity (through mid-February)
84
GAI direct-to-consumer (through April)
22
$2,012
(*) The Great American Pool represents approximately 10 subsidiaries.
(n/a) Not available/not applicable.
Performance measures such as underwriting profit or loss and related combined ratios are often used by property and casualty insurers to help users of their financial statements better understand the Company's performance. See Note C - "Segment of Operations" to the financial statements for the reconciliation of AFG's operating profit by significant business segment to the consolidated Statement of Operations.
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The following table shows the performance of AFG's property and casualty insurance operations (dollars in millions):
Gross written premiums (a)
$3,508
$3,935
$3,520
Ceded reinsurance (a)
(1,496
(1,521
(938
Net written premiums
$2,414
$2,582
Net earned premiums
$2,403
$2,594
Loss and LAE
1,353
1,783
1,978
Asbestos litigation settlement
-
30
Special A&E charge
69(c)
Underwriting expenses
532
606
736
Policyholder dividends
8
_____5
Underwriting gain (loss)
$ 22
($ 24)
($ 194)
GAAP ratios:
Loss and LAE ratio
70.9%
75.4%
78.9%
Underwriting expense ratio
27.9
25.3
28.4
Policyholder dividend ratio
.1
.3
.2
Combined ratio (d)
98.9
101.0
107.5
Statutory ratios:
72.1%
76.3%
80.2%
28.0
25.0
28.3
100.3
101.5
108.8
Industry statutory combined ratio (e)
All lines
101.1%
107.4%
115.9%
Commercial lines
103.6%
107.7%
117.1%
Excludes the following premiums that were written under special arrangements on behalf of, and fully reinsured to, Infinity (following its sale in February) and the purchasers of the commercial lines and Japanese divisions: 2003 - $122 million; 2002 - $173 million; and 2001 - $143 million.
(b)
Before a reduction of $29.7 million for unearned premium transfer related to the sale of the Japanese division.
(c)
Excludes a $31 million charge recorded by Transport, which has been reclassified to Discontinued Operations in AFG's Statement of Operations.
(d)
The 2003 combined ratios include 2.3 percentage points related to an arbitration decision for GAI's share of a 1995 property fire and business interruption claim. The 2002 combined ratios include 1.2 percentage points (GAAP) and 1.3 points (statutory) related to the A.P. Green asbestos litigation settlement. The 2001 combined ratios include 2.7 percentage points for the third quarter strengthening of insurance reserves relating to A&E matters and 1 percentage point attributable to the attack on the World Trade Center.
(e)
Ratios are derived from "Best's Review/Preview - Property/Casualty" (January 2004 Edition).
As with other property and casualty insurers, AFG's operating results can be adversely affected by unpredictable catastrophe losses. Certain natural disasters (hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, floods, forest fires, etc.) and other incidents of major loss (explosions, civil disorder, fires, etc.) are classified as catastrophes by industry associations. Losses from these incidents are usually tracked separately from other business of insurers because of their sizable effects on overall operations. AFG generally seeks to reduce its exposure to such events through individual risk selection and the purchase of reinsurance. Total net losses to AFG's insurance operations from catastrophes were $17 million in 2003; $7 million in 2002 and $42 million in 2001. These amounts are included in the tables herein. AFG's catastrophe losses in 2001 included $25 million related to the terrorist attack on the World Trade Center.
The Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002 ("TRIA") is to be in effect until the end of 2005 and establishes a temporary Terrorism Risk Insurance Program which requires commercial insurers to offer virtually all policyholders coverage for certain "acts of terrorism" as defined by TRIA. This federal legislation provides
5
that coverage may not materially differ from the terms, amounts, and other coverage limitations applicable to losses arising from occurrences other than terrorism. The federal government provides some stop loss insurance to insurers after an act has been certified by the government as an act of terrorism and after an insurer has paid losses in excess of a deductible. The deductible progresses from 7% to 15% of direct earned premium in each of the three program years. TRIA supersedes state insurance law to the extent that such law is inconsistent with its terms.
AFG incurred no losses due to "acts of terrorism" in 2003. For 2004, AFG would have to sustain losses in excess of $244 million to be eligible for the reinsurance under TRIA. AFG believes that it is unlikely that its losses in the event of a terrorist act would be so significant as to exceed the deductible necessary to participate in the federal reinsurance. AFG generally seeks to limit its exposure to catastrophe losses including those arising from terrorist acts. AFG is complying with the obligations of TRIA to offer coverage but continues to review its business with consideration of the price it charges for such coverage, as well as through management of individual risk selection.
Specialty
General
Property and Transportation
Inland and Ocean Marine
Provides coverage primarily for marine cargo, boat dealers, marina operators/dealers, excursion vessels, builder's risk, contractor's equipment, excess property and motor truck cargo.
Agricultural-related
Provides federally reinsured multi-peril crop (allied lines) insurance covering most perils as well as crop hail, equine mortality and other coverages for full-time operating farms/ranches and agribusiness operations on a nationwide basis.
Commercial Automobile
Markets customized insurance programs for various transportation operations (such as busses and trucks), and a specialized physical damage product for the trucking industry.
Specialty Casualty
Executive and Professional Liability
Markets coverage for attorneys, architects and engineers, and for directors and officers of businesses and not-for-profit organizations.
Umbrella and Excess Liability
Provides higher layer liability coverage in excess of primary layers.
Excess and Surplus
Specially designed insurance products offered to those that can't find coverage in standard markets.
Specialty Financial
Fidelity and Surety Bonds
Provides surety coverage for various types of contractors and public and private corporations and fidelity and crime coverage for government, mercantile and financial institutions.
Collateral Protection
Provides coverage for insurance risk management programs for lending and leasing institutions.
California Workers' Compensation
Workers' Compensation
Writes coverage for prescribed benefits payable to employees (principally in California) who are injured on the job.
6
Specialization is the key element to the underwriting success of these business units. Each unit has independent management with significant operating autonomy to oversee the important operational functions of its business such as underwriting, pricing, marketing, policy processing and claims service. These specialty businesses are opportunistic and their premium volume will vary based on prevailing market conditions. AFG continually evaluates expansion in existing markets and opportunities in new specialty markets that meet its profitability objectives.
The U.S. geographic distribution of the Specialty group's statutory direct written premiums in 2003 compared to 1999 is shown below. Amounts exclude business written under special arrangements on behalf of, and fully reinsured to, the purchasers of the divisions sold in 2003 and 1999.
1999
California
20.7%
26.3%
Oklahoma
2.6
3.3
Texas
8.7
7.8
New Jersey
2.5
Florida
5.8
4.4
Missouri
2.1
*
New York
5.0
5.7
Michigan
Illinois
4.0
Indiana
2.0
Ohio
3.0
2.2
Massachusetts
3.7
Georgia
2.9
North Dakota
Pennsylvania
2.8%
2.3%
35.3
33.7
100.0
(*) less than 2%
The following table sets forth a distribution of statutory net written premiums for AFG's Specialty group by NAIC annual statement line for 2003 compared to 1999.
Other liability
29.0%
19.3%
Workers' compensation
16.5
18.7
Auto liability
8.8
9.3
Commercial multi-peril
7.7
9.8
Inland marine
6.9
13.3
Fidelity and surety
5.6
4.9
Collateral protection
5.3
2.7
Auto physical damage
4.8
4.5
Allied lines
3.8
5.9
Product liability
3.5
Ocean marine
3.4
General aviation
2.8
4.7
5.1
7
The following table shows the performance of AFG's Specialty group insurance operations (dollars in millions):
Gross written premiums (a):
$1,142
$ 886
$ 742
1,413
1,235
859
396
332
356
290
229
243
31
36
$3,243
$2,713
$2,236
Net written premiums:
$ 515
$ 413
$ 506
679
609
512
302
255
247
271
219
236
87
81
41
$1,854
$1,577
$1,542
GAAP combined ratio:
87.8%
90.1%
96.7%
98.2
106.6
111.5
108.3
101.4
80.1
92.0
96.4
104.8
Total Specialty GAAP combined ratio
96.0%
98.4%
101.7%
Total Specialty statutory combined ratio
97.7%
100.1%
104.6%
Industry statutory combined ratio (c)
Excludes the following premiums that were written under special arrangements on behalf of, and fully reinsured to, the purchasers of the Commercial lines and Japanese divisions: 2003 - $26 million; 2002 -$173 million; and 2001 - $143 million.
Before a reduction of $29.7 million for the unearned premium transfer related to the sale of the Japanese division.
Represents the commercial industry statutory combined ratio derived from "Best's Review/Preview - Property/Casualty" (January 2004 Edition).
Marketing
Competition
Personal
The Personal group wrote primarily nonstandard private passenger automobile liability and physical damage insurance, and to a lesser extent, homeowners' insurance. AFG sold 61% of Infinity Property and Casualty Corporation in a February 2003 public offering and its remaining stake in Infinity in December 2003. In April 2003, AFG sold two of its subsidiaries that market automobile insurance directly to customers. The businesses sold in these transactions represented 92% of the Personal group's 2002 net written premiums.
Reinsurance
Consistent with standard practice of most insurance companies, AFG reinsures a portion of its business with other insurance companies and assumes a relatively small amount of business from other insurers. Ceding reinsurance permits diversification of risks and limits the maximum loss arising from large or unusually hazardous risks or catastrophic events. The availability and cost of reinsurance are subject to prevailing market conditions which may affect the volume and profitability of business that is written. AFG is subject to credit risk with respect to its reinsurers, as the ceding of risk to reinsurers generally does not relieve AFG of its liability to its insureds until claims are fully settled.
AFG regularly monitors the financial strength of its reinsurers. This process periodically results in the transfer of risks to more financially secure reinsurers. Substantially all reinsurance is ceded to reinsurers having more than $100 million in capital and A.M. Best ratings of "A-" or better. AFG further minimizes the credit risk of certain ceding arrangements by entering into the contracts on a "funds withheld" basis. Under "funds withheld" arrangements, AFG retains ceded premiums to fund ceded losses as they become due from the reinsurer. As an alternative method to reduce credit risk, AFG has, on occasion, required reinsurers to secure recoverables due under reinsurance agreements by establishing letters of credit. Excluding Infinity, Mitsui and Ohio Casualty (discussed below), approximately half of AFG's total reinsurance recoverable (net, of funds withheld) at December 31, 2003, was with the following companies: American Re-Insurance Company, Swiss Reinsurance America Corporation, Gene ral Reinsurance Corporation, X.L. Reinsurance America, Inc., Employers Reinsurance Corporation, Converium Reinsurance North America, Inc., Berkley Insurance Company, Everest Reinsurance Company, Folksamerica Reinsurance Company, Transatlantic Reinsurance Company, and Hanover Reinsurance Company, Ltd.
Reinsurance is provided on one of two bases, facultative or treaty. Facultative reinsurance is generally provided on a risk by risk basis. Individual risks are ceded and assumed based on an offer and acceptance of risk by each party to the transaction. Treaty reinsurance provides for risks meeting prescribed criteria to be automatically ceded and assumed according to contract provisions. The following table presents (by type of coverage) the amount of each loss above the specified retention maximum generally covered by treaty reinsurance programs (in millions):
Retention
Coverage
Maximum
Coverage(a)
$ 1.0
$149.0
Other Workers' Compensation
48.0
Commercial Umbrella
1.8
48.2
Property - General
Property - Catastrophe
10.0
110.0
Reinsurance covers substantial portions of losses in excess of retention.
However, in general, losses resulting from terrorism are not covered.
AFG also purchases facultative reinsurance providing coverage on a risk by risk basis, both pro rata and excess of loss, depending on the risk and available reinsurance markets.
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Included in the balance sheet caption "recoverables from reinsurers and prepaid reinsurance premiums" were approximately $246 million on paid losses and LAE and $2.1 billion on unpaid losses and LAE at December 31, 2003. These amounts are net of allowances of approximately $42 million for doubtful collection of reinsurance recoverables. The collectibility of a reinsurance balance is based upon the financial condition of a reinsurer as well as individual claim considerations.
Premiums written for reinsurance ceded and assumed are presented in the following table (in millions):
Reinsurance ceded
$1,618
$1,693
$1,114
Reinsurance assumed - including
involuntary pools and associations
100
80
94
In connection with the transfer of a portion of GAI's personal lines business to Infinity in 2003 and the sales of the Japanese division to Mitsui in 2001 and the Commercial lines division to Ohio Casualty in 1998, Great American agreed to issue and renew policies related to the businesses transferred until each purchaser received the required approvals and licensing to begin writing business on their own behalf. The Infinity agreement is effective until January 1, 2006. The Mitsui and Ohio Casualty agreements ended at the end of 2003 and in early 2001, respectively. Under these agreements, Great American cedes 100% of these premiums to the respective purchaser. In 2003, 2002 and 2001, premiums of $122 million, $173 million and $143 million, respectively, were ceded under these agreements.
Loss and Loss Adjustment Expense Reserves
The consolidated financial statements include the estimated liability for unpaid losses and LAE of AFG's insurance subsidiaries. This liability represents estimates of the ultimate net cost of all unpaid losses and LAE and is determined by using case-basis evaluations and actuarial projections. These estimates are subject to the effects of changes in claim amounts and frequency and are periodically reviewed and adjusted as additional information becomes known. In accordance with industry practices, such adjustments are reflected in current year operations.
Generally, reserves for reinsurance and involuntary pools and associations are reflected in AFG's results at the amounts reported by those entities.
10
The following discussion of insurance reserves includes the reserves of American Premier's subsidiaries for only those periods following its acquisition in 1995. See Note P to the Financial Statements for an analysis of changes in AFG's estimated liability for losses and LAE, net and gross of reinsurance, over the past three years on a GAAP basis.
The following table presents the development of AFG's liability for losses and LAE, net of reinsurance, on a GAAP basis for the last ten years, excluding reserves of American Premier subsidiaries prior to 1995. The top line of the table shows the estimated liability (in millions) for unpaid losses and LAE recorded at the balance sheet date for the indicated years. The second line shows the re-estimated liability as of December 31, 2003. The remainder of the table presents intervening development as percentages of the initially estimated liability. The development results from additional information and experience in subsequent years. The middle line shows a cumulative deficiency (redundancy) which represents the aggregate percentage increase (decrease) in the liability initially estimated. The lower portion of the table indicates the cumulative amounts paid as of successive periods as a percentage of the original loss reserve liability. For purposes of this table, reserves of businesses sold a re considered paid at the date of sale. For example, the percentage of the December 31, 2002 reserve liability paid in 2003 includes approximately 20 percentage points for reserves of Infinity at its sale date in February 2003.
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
2000
Liability for unpaid losses
and loss adjustment expenses
As originally estimated
$2,113
$2,187
$3,393
$3,404
$3,489
$3,305
$3,224
$3,192
$3,253
$3,400
$2,850
As re-estimated at
2,467
2,553
3,719
3,739
3,771
3,278
3,308
3,506
3,621
3,567
N/A
Liability re-estimated
One year later
98.1%
95.9%
98.7%
100.9%
104.5%
97.8%
105.1%
105.2%
104.9%
Two years later
94.1%
99.3%
98.5%
105.9%
96.3%
111.3%
Three years later
97.4%
99.9%
103.9%
102.9%
99.0%
109.9%
Four years later
98.9%
109.4%
103.1%
105.4%
102.6%
Five years later
109.7%
109.0%
106.9%
105.7%
99.2%
Six years later
108.8%
108.5%
106.8%
108.1%
Seven years later
115.3%
109.8%
Eight years later
115.5%
116.4%
109.6%
Nine years later
116.6%
116.8%
Ten years later
Cumulative deficiency
(redundancy):
Aggregate
16.8
9.6
8.1
( 0.8%)
9.9
11.3
Excluding the 2002 A.P.
Green settlement charge
and special A&E charges
and reallocations in
1994, 1996, 1998 and 2001
( 7.2%)
( 4.1%)
( 2.8%)
( 0.2%)
( 1.8%)
( 4.8%)
( 1.4%)
10.4
Cumulative paid as of
25.2%
26.8%
33.1%
33.8%
41.7%
28.3%
34.8%
38.3%
33.6%
43.1%
40.6%
42.5%
51.6%
58.0%
56.6%
51.7%
52.7%
52.2%
62.9%
50.9%
54.4%
67.2%
66.7%
70.8%
62.4%
60.0%
71.4%
59.1%
66.3%
72.0%
77.3%
78.6%
65.6%
72.5%
68.0%
69.8%
80.4%
82.8%
81.1%
73.9%
80.0%
84.7%
84.6%
86.9%
80.6%
84.9%
86.0%
89.6%
85.1%
86.1%
90.3%
86.3%
89.2%
The following is a reconciliation of the net liability to the gross liability
for unpaid losses and LAE.
As originally estimated:
Net liability shown above
Add reinsurance
recoverables
611
730
704
720
1,468
1,571
1,324
1,525
1,804
2,059
Gross liability
$2,724
$2,917
$4,097
$4,124
$4,225
$4,773
$4,795
$4,516
$4,778
$5,204
$4,909
December 31, 2003:
$2,467
$2,553
$3,719
$3,739
$3,771
$3,278
$3,308
$3,506
$3,621
$3,567
958
1,024
1,122
1,137
1,217
1,785
1,933
1,758
1,913
1,949
$3,425
$3,577
$4,841
$4,876
$4,988
$5,063
$5,241
$5,264
$5,534
$5,516
Gross cumulative deficiency
(redundancy)
25.6
22.7
18.2
18.1
6.1
16.6
15.8
6.0
11
These tables do not present accident or policy year development data. Furthermore, in evaluating the re-estimated liability and cumulative deficiency (redundancy), it should be noted that each percentage includes the effects of changes in amounts for prior periods. For example, AFG's $100 million special charge for A&E claims related to losses recorded in 2001, but incurred before 1993, is included in the re-estimated liability and cumulative deficiency (redundancy) percentage for each of the previous years shown. Conditions and trends that have affected development of the liability in the past may not necessarily exist in the future. Accordingly, it may not be appropriate to extrapolate future redundancies or deficiencies based on this table.
Much of the adverse development in the tables is due to A&E exposures for which AFG has been held liable under general liability policies written years ago, even though such coverage was not intended. Other factors affecting development included higher than projected inflation on medical, hospitalization, material, repair and replacement costs. Additionally, changes in the legal environment, including changes in state insurance laws and regulations have influenced the development patterns over the past ten years.
The differences between the liability for losses and LAE reported in the annual statements filed with the state insurance departments in accordance with statutory accounting principles ("SAP") and that reported in the accompanying consolidated financial statements in accordance with GAAP at December 31, 2003 are as follows (in millions):
Liability reported on a SAP basis, net of $195 million
of retroactive reinsurance
$2,840
Additional discounting of GAAP reserves in excess
of the statutory limitation for SAP reserves
(13)
Reserves of foreign operations
15
Reinsurance recoverables, net of allowance
Reclassification of allowance for uncollectible
Liability reported on a GAAP basis
Asbestos and Environmental Reserves ("A&E")
Establishing reserves for A&E claims is subject to uncertainties that are significantly greater than those presented by other types of claims. For a discussion of these uncertainties, see Management's Discussion and Analysis -"Uncertainties - Asbestos and Environmental-related Reserves", and "Special A&E Charge" and Note N - "Commitments and Contingencies" to the Financial Statements.
The survival ratio, which is an industry measure of A&E claim reserves, is derived by dividing reserves for A&E exposures by annual paid losses. At December 31, 2003, AFG's three year survival ratio (excluding Transport, which is expected to be sold in 2004 and amounts associated with the A.P. Green settlement) is approximately 11.9 times paid losses for the remaining asbestos reserves and 9.6 times paid losses for total A&E reserves. In October 2003, A.M. Best reported its estimate that the property and casualty insurance industry's three year survival ratio for A&E reserves was approximately 8.7 times paid losses at December 31, 2002.
12
The following table (in millions) is a progression of A&E reserves.
Reserves at beginning of year
$466.7
$446.8
$357.7
Incurred losses and LAE (a)
0.1
48.6
108.0
Paid losses and LAE
(43.5)
(28.7)
(28.1)
Reserves not classified as A&E prior to 2001:
Reserves
1.4
Allowance for uncollectible reinsurance
applicable to ceded A&E reserves
Reserves at end of year, net of
reinsurance recoverable (b)
423.3
466.7
446.8
Reinsurance recoverable, net of allowance
105.1
Gross reserves at end of year (b)
$515.3
$571.8
$548.2
(a) Includes $30 million in 2002 related to the settlement of the
A.P. Green asbestos litigation and a special charge of $100 million
in 2001.
(b) Includes $51.9 million in 2003 in net reserves ($70.4 million gross) of
Transport Insurance Company, which is expected to be sold in 2004.
Annuity and Life Operations
AFG's annuity and life operations are conducted through Great American Financial Resources, Inc. ("GAFRI"), a holding company which markets retirement products, primarily fixed and variable annuities, and various forms of life and supplemental health insurance through the following subsidiaries which were acquired in the years shown. GAFRI and its subsidiaries employ approximately 1,500 persons.
Great American Life Insurance Company ("GALIC") - 1992(*)
Annuity Investors Life Insurance Company ("AILIC") - 1994
Loyal American Life Insurance Company ("Loyal") - 1995
Great American Life Assurance Company of Puerto Rico ("GAPR") - 1997
United Teacher Associates Insurance Company ("UTA") - 1999
Manhattan National Life Insurance Company ("MNL") - 2002
(*) Acquired from Great American Insurance.
Acquisitions in recent years have supplemented GAFRI's internal growth as the assets of the holding company and its operating subsidiaries have increased from $4.5 billion at the end of 1992 to $10.2 billion at the end of 2003. Premiums over the last three years were as follows (in millions):
Insurance Product
Annuities
$ 869
$1,001
$ 751
Life and supplemental health
335
313
310
$1,204
$1,314
$1,061
GAFRI's principal retirement products are Flexible Premium Deferred Annuities ("FPDAs") and Single Premium Deferred Annuities ("SPDAs"). Annuities are long-term retirement saving instruments that benefit from income accruing on a tax-deferred basis. The issuer of the annuity collects premiums, credits interest or earnings on the policy and pays out a benefit upon death, surrender or annuitization. FPDAs are characterized by premium payments that are flexible in both amount and timing as determined by the policyholder and are generally made through payroll deductions. SPDAs are generally issued in exchange for a one-time lump-sum premium payment.
13
The following table (in millions) presents combined financial information of GAFRI's principal annuity operations.
Total assets
$8,663
$8,014
$7,456
Fixed annuity benefits accumulated
6,492
6,111
5,632
Variable annuity liabilities
568
455
530
Stockholder's equity
1,220
1,139
1,023
$7,889
$7,319
$6,896
Fixed annuity reserves
6,578
6,192
5,729
Capital and surplus
515
419
388
Asset valuation reserve (a)
53
63
79
Interest maintenance reserve (a)
27
Fixed annuity receipts:
Flexible premium:
First year
$ 34
$ 29
$ 24
Renewal
114
106
105
148
135
129
Single premium
556
639
392
Total fixed annuity receipts
$ 704
$ 774
$ 521
Variable annuity receipts:
$ 9
$ 16
$ 30
65
71
62
74
92
48
95
107
Total variable annuity receipts
$ 122
$ 182
$ 199
(a) Allocation of surplus.
Sales of annuities, including renewal premiums, are affected by many factors, including: (i) competitive annuity products and rates; (ii) the general level of interest rates; (iii) the favorable tax treatment of annuities; (iv) commissions paid to agents; (v) services offered; (vi) ratings from independent insurance rating agencies; (vii) other alternative investments; (viii) performance of the equity markets and (ix) general economic conditions. At December 31, 2003, GAFRI had over 335,000 annuity policies in force.
Annuity contracts are generally classified as either fixed rate (including equity-indexed) or variable. The following table presents premiums by classification:
Premiums
Traditional fixed
85%
77%
68%
Variable
14
18
Equity-indexed
With a traditional fixed rate annuity, the interest crediting rate is initially set by the issuer and thereafter may be changed from time to time by the issuer subject to any guaranteed minimum interest crediting rates or any guaranteed term in the policy.
GAFRI seeks to maintain a desired spread between the yield on its investment portfolio and the rate it credits to its fixed rate annuities. GAFRI accomplishes this by: (i) offering crediting rates which it has the option to change after any initial guarantee period; (ii) designing annuity products that encourage persistency and (iii) maintaining an appropriate matching of assets and liabilities. GAFRI designs its products with certain provisions to encourage policyholders to maintain their funds with GAFRI for at least five to ten years.
The majority of GAFRI's fixed annuity products permit GAFRI to change the crediting rate at any time, subject to minimum guarantee rates (as determined by applicable law). In the fourth quarter of 2003, GAFRI began issuing products with guaranteed minimum crediting rates of less than 3% in states where required approvals have been received. At December 31, 2003, less than 1% of annuity benefits accumulated related to these new policies. Approximately half of the annuity benefits accumulated relate to policies that have a minimum guarantee of 3%; the majority of the balance have a guarantee of 4%. Historically, management has been able to react to changes in market interest rates and maintain a desired interest rate spread. The recent interest rate environment has resulted in a spread compression, which could continue through at least 2004.
In addition to traditional fixed rate annuities, GAFRI offers variable annuities. Industry sales of such annuities increased substantially in the 1990's as investors sought to obtain the returns available in the equity markets while enjoying the tax-deferred status of annuities. With a variable annuity, the earnings credited to the policy vary based on the investment results of the underlying investment options chosen by the policyholder, generally without any guarantee of principal except in the case of death of the insured annuitant. Premiums directed to the variable options in policies issued by GAFRI are invested in funds maintained in separate accounts managed by various independent investment managers. GAFRI earns a fee on amounts deposited into variable accounts. Subject to contractual provisions, policyholders may also choose to direct all or a portion of their premiums to various fixed rate options, in which case GAFRI earns a spread on amounts deposite d. With the downturn in the stock market during 2000 through 2002, industry-wide sales of variable annuities, including GAFRI's sales, have decreased substantially.
An equity-indexed fixed annuity provides policyholders with a crediting rate tied, in part, to the performance of an existing stock market index while protecting them against the related downside risk through a guarantee of principal. In 2002, GAFRI chose to suspend new sales of equity-indexed annuities due primarily to a lack of volume.
In 2003, 2002 and 2001, 19%, 15% and 17%, respectively, of GAFRI's annuity premiums came from California. In 2001, 13% of the annuity premiums came from Ohio. No other state accounted for more than 10% of premiums in those years.
GAFRI's FPDAs are sold primarily to employees of not-for-profit and commercial organizations who are eligible to save for retirement through contributions made on a before-tax or after-tax basis. Contributions are made at the discretion of the participants through payroll deductions or through tax-free "rollovers" of funds from other qualified investments. Federal income taxes are not payable on pretax contributions or earnings until amounts are withdrawn.
GAFRI distributes its fixed rate products primarily through a network of 130 managing general agents ("MGAs") who, in turn, direct approximately 1,600 actively producing independent agents. The top 15 MGAs accounted for more than two-thirds of GAFRI's fixed rate annuity premiums in 2003. No one MGA represented more than 10% of total fixed annuity premiums in 2003. In addition, GAFRI offers all of its annuity product lines through financial institutions. Sales of annuities through financial institutions were approximately 3% of total annuity premiums in 2003.
In 2002, GAFRI exited the highly competitive single premium, non-qualified segment of the variable annuity market due primarily to insufficient returns and a lack of critical mass. GAFRI offers its variable annuity as an ancillary product solely through its fixed annuity sales channels. Nearly one-half of GAFRI's variable annuity sales in 2003 were made through a wholly-owned subsidiary, Great American Advisors, Inc. ("GAA"). GAA is a broker/dealer licensed in all 50 states to sell stocks, bonds, options, mutual funds and variable insurance contracts through independent representatives and financial institutions. GAA also acts as the principal underwriter and distributor for GAFRI's variable annuity products.
Life and Supplemental Insurance
GAFRI offers a variety of life and supplemental health products through GALIC's life operations, MNL, Loyal, GAPR and UTA. This group produced $335 million of statutory premiums in 2003.
GALIC has offered traditional term, universal and whole life insurance products through national marketing organizations. Beginning in May 2004, GALIC will suspend new sales in this business due to inadequate volume and returns. GALIC will continue to service its in-force block of over 140,000 policies and $27 billion gross ($11 billion net) of life insurance in force.
GAFRI has reinsured 90% of MNL's business in force. While MNL is no longer writing new policies, as of December 31, 2003, it had approximately 75,000 life policies and $10 billion gross ($700 million net) of life insurance in force (primarily term life).
UTA offers a variety of supplemental health products and annuities through independent agents. UTA's principal health products include coverage for Medicare supplement, cancer and long-term care.
Loyal offers a variety of supplemental health and life products. The principal products sold by Loyal include cancer, accidental injury, short-term disability, hospital indemnity, universal life and traditional whole life. In 2001, Loyal reinsured a substantial portion of its life insurance business and reduced its marketing efforts in that line of business. In 2002, Loyal's remaining operations were combined with UTA's operations.
At year-end 2003, GAFRI's operating units writing supplemental insurance products had assets of more than $850 million and approximately 370,000 policies with annualized health premiums in force of more than $225 million and gross life insurance in force of $1.4 billion.
GAPR sells in-home service life and supplemental health products through a network of company-employed agents. Ordinary life, cancer, credit and group life products are sold through independent agents.
Independent Ratings
GAFRI's principal insurance subsidiaries are rated by A.M. Best and Standard & Poor's. In addition, GALIC is rated A+ (strong) by Fitch and A3 (good financial security) by Moody's. Such ratings are generally based on concerns of policyholders and agents and are not directed toward the protection of investors. Following are the ratings as of March 1, 2004:
Standard
A.M. Best
& Poor's
GALIC
A (Excellent)
A-(Strong)
AILIC
Loyal
Not rated
UTA
A-(Excellent)
GAPR
GAFRI believes that the ratings assigned by independent insurance rating agencies are important because potential policyholders often use a company's rating as an initial screening device in considering annuity products. GAFRI believes that (i) a rating in the "A" category by A.M. Best is necessary to successfully market tax-deferred annuities to public education employees and other not-for-profit groups and (ii) a rating in the "A" category by at least one rating agency is necessary to successfully compete in other annuity markets.
GAFRI's operations could be materially and adversely affected by ratings downgrades. In connection with recent reviews by independent rating agencies, management indicated that it intends to maintain lower ratios of debt to capital than it has in recent years and intends to maintain the capital of its significant insurance subsidiaries at levels currently indicated by the rating agencies as appropriate for the current ratings. Items which could adversely affect capital levels include (i) a sustained decrease in the stock market; (ii) a significant period of low interest rates and a resulting significant narrowing of annuity "spread" (the difference between earnings received by GAFRI on its investments less amount credited to policyholders' annuity accounts); (iii) investment impairments; (iv) adverse mortality, and; (v) higher than planned dividends paid due to liquidity needs of GAFRI's holding companies.
GAFRI's insurance companies operate in highly competitive markets. They compete with other insurers and financial institutions based on many factors, including: (i) ratings; (ii) financial strength; (iii) reputation; (iv) service to policyholders and agents; (v) product design (including interest rates credited and premium rates charged); (vi) commissions; and (vii) number of school districts a company has approval to sell in. Since policies are marketed and distributed primarily through independent agents (except at GAPR), the insurance companies must also compete for agents.
No single insurer dominates the markets in which GAFRI's insurance companies compete. Competitors include (i) individual insurers and insurance groups, (ii) mutual funds and (iii) other financial institutions. In a broader sense, GAFRI's insurance companies compete for retirement savings with a variety of financial institutions offering a full range of financial services. Financial institutions have demonstrated a growing interest in marketing investment and savings products other than traditional deposit accounts.
Other Companies
Through subsidiaries, AFG is engaged in a variety of other operations, including The Golf Center at Kings Island in the Greater Cincinnati area; commercial real estate operations in Cincinnati (office buildings and The Cincinnatian Hotel), New Orleans (Le Pavillon Hotel), Cape Cod (Chatham Bars Inn), Austin (Driskill Hotel), Chesapeake Bay (Skipjack Cove Yachting Resort), Charleston (Charleston Harbor Resort and Marina) and apartments in Louisville, Pittsburgh, St. Paul and Tampa Bay. These operations employ approximately 700 full-time employees.
Investment Portfolio
Cash and Short-term Investments
4.3%
6.4%
4.5%
3.8%
3.5%
Fixed Maturities - Available-for-sale:
U.S. Government and Agencies
10.2
10.3
8.4
State and Municipal
7.0
Public Utilities
6.5
Mortgage-Backed Securities
24.5
23.7
22.4
23.2
21.7
Corporate and Other
37.6
41.2
47.9
50.7
53.7
Redeemable Preferred Stocks
.5
.4
.6
87.5
87.9
89.0
88.5
Fixed Maturities - Trading
Other Stocks, Options and Warrants
Policy Loans
1.6
1.7
1.9
Real Estate and Other Investments
2.4
Yield on Fixed Income Securities (a):
Excluding realized gains and losses
6.2%
7.2%
7.6%
7.7%
Including realized gains and losses
6.6%
7.5%
7.4%
Yield on Stocks (a):
6.5%
5.4%
5.0%
5.9%
10.1%
(4.6%)
(.3%)
3.9%
Yield on Investments (a)(b):
7.1%
7.9%
(a) Based on amortized cost; excludes effects of changes in unrealized gains.
(b) Excludes "Real Estate and Other Investments".
17
The table below compares total returns on AFG's fixed income and equity securities to comparable public indices. While there are no directly comparable indices to AFG's portfolio, the two shown below are widely used benchmarks in the industry. Both AFG's performance and the indices include changes in unrealized gains and losses.
Yield on AFG's fixed income securities
6.3%
9.2%
8.8%
9.8%
1.6%
Lehman Universal Bond Index
5.8%
8.1%
10.8%
0.2%
Yield on AFG's equity securities
45.7%
(46.3%)
18.1%
1.8%
Standard & Poors 500 Index
28.7%
(22.1%)
(11.9%)
(9.1%)
21.0%
Fixed Maturity Investments
AFG's bond portfolio is invested primarily in taxable bonds. The NAIC assigns quality ratings which range from Class 1 (highest quality) to Class 6 (lowest quality). The following table shows AFG's bonds and redeemable preferred stocks, by NAIC designation (and comparable Standard & Poor's Corporation rating) as of December 31, 2003 (dollars in millions).
NAIC
Amortized
Market Value
Rating
Comparable S&P Rating
Cost
Amount
%
AAA, AA, A
$ 8,927
$ 9,135
75%
BBB
2,039
2,147
Total investment grade
10,966
11,282
93
BB
321
340
B
326
CCC, CC, C
113
D
34
Total noninvestment grade
758
820
Total
$11,724
$12,102
(*) Less than 1%
Risks inherent in connection with fixed income securities include loss upon default and market price volatility. Factors which can affect the market price of securities include: creditworthiness, changes in interest rates, the number of market makers and investors and defaults by major issuers of securities.
AFG's primary investment objective for fixed maturities is to earn interest and dividend income rather than to realize capital gains. AFG invests in bonds and redeemable preferred stocks that have primarily intermediate-term maturities. This practice allows flexibility in reacting to fluctuations of interest rates.
Equity Investments
At December 31, 2003, AFG held $455 million in stocks; approximately 50% represents an investment in Provident Financial Group, Inc., a Cincinnati-based commercial banking and financial services company. Such an equity investment, because of its size, may not be as readily marketable as the typical small investment position. Alternatively, a large equity position may be attractive to persons seeking to control or influence the policies of a company. In February 2004, Provident announced that it was being acquired by National City Corporation. If this transaction is completed, AFG will receive 8.1 million shares ($290 million market value at March 1, 2004) of National City in exchange for its investment in Provident.
Foreign Operations
AFG sells life and supplemental health products in Puerto Rico and property and casualty products in Mexico, Canada and Europe. Less than 4% of AFG's revenues and costs and expenses are derived from sources outside of the United States.
Regulation
AFG's insurance company subsidiaries are subject to regulation in the jurisdictions where they do business. In general, the insurance laws of the various states establish regulatory agencies with broad administrative powers governing, among other things, premium rates, solvency standards, licensing of insurers, agents and brokers, trade practices, forms of policies, maintenance of specified reserves and capital for the protection of policyholders, deposits of securities for the benefit of policyholders, investment activities and relationships between insurance subsidiaries and their parents and affiliates. Material transactions between insurance subsidiaries and their parents and affiliates generally must be disclosed and prior approval of the applicable insurance regulatory authorities generally is required for any such transaction which may be deemed to be material or extraordinary. In addition, while differing from state to state, these regulations typically restrict the maximum amount of dividends that may be paid by an insurer to its shareholders in any twelve-month period without advance regulatory approval. Such limitations are generally based on net earnings or statutory surplus. Under applicable restrictions, the maximum amount of dividends available to AFG in 2004 from its insurance subsidiaries without seeking regulatory clearance is approximately $181 million.
Changes in state insurance laws and regulations have the potential to materially affect the revenues and expenses of the insurance operations. For example, in the mid-1990s, workers' compensation insurance premium rates were adversely affected by the introduction of an open rating law. The effects of this law as well as a deterioration in loss experience led to significant rate increases which prompted the California Legislature to enact workers' compensation legislation in 2003 that focused primarily on limiting certain medical provider fees in order to reduce but not eliminate increasing costs to employers and insurers. Projected savings from this legislation, however, are to be taken into account in setting new rates in 2004. The California Insurance Commissioner has recommended a decrease in workers' compensation rates of 14.9%, which was higher than was anticipated at the time the legislation was enacted. The impact to the company is uncertain because the Insurance Department has not yet finaliz ed the regulations and procedures implementing the legislation. The Company is unable to predict whether or when other state insurance laws or regulations may be adopted or enacted or what the impact of such developments would be on the future operations and revenues of its insurance businesses.
Most states have created insurance guaranty associations to provide for the payment of claims of insurance companies that become insolvent. Annual assessments for AFG's insurance companies have not been material.
The NAIC is an organization which is comprised of the chief insurance regulator for each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The NAIC model law for Risk Based Capital applies to both life and property and casualty companies. The risk-based capital formulas determine the amount of capital that an insurance company needs to ensure that it has an acceptably low expectation of becoming financially impaired. The model law provides for increasing levels of regulatory intervention as the ratio of an insurer's total adjusted capital and surplus decreases relative to its risk-based capital, culminating with mandatory control of the operations of the insurer by the domiciliary insurance department at the so-called "mandatory control level". At December 31, 2003, the capital ratios of all operating AFG insurance companies substantially exceeded the risk-based capital requirements.
The federal fiscal year budget for 2005 contains several proposals designed to increase private savings by simplifying and consolidating current retirement savings vehicles. Included is one proposal to consolidate 401(k), 403(b) and governmental 457 plans, as well as certain other retirement accounts, into one plan. It is too early to predict the specific proposals which might be included in any legislation to be introduced, whether such legislation would become law, or their impact if adopted.
Various competitors, schools and other entities have proposed measures that would restrict product designs and the number of companies qualified to sell annuities to teachers. In addition, certain school districts have proposed charging policy fees to annuity providers. While efforts in these areas have been largely unsuccessful to date, widespread acceptance of such measures could negatively impact
19
GAFRI's annuity operations to the extent GAFRI's access to school districts is limited or reduced, and to the extent policy fees are not recovered by GAFRI.
ITEM 2
Properties
Subsidiaries of AFG own several buildings in downtown Cincinnati. AFG and its affiliates occupy about three-fourths of the aggregate 675,000 square feet of commercial and office space.
AFG's insurance subsidiaries lease the majority of their office and storage facilities in numerous cities throughout the United States, including Great American's and GAFRI's home offices in Cincinnati. A GAFRI subsidiary owns a 40,000 square foot office building in Austin, Texas, most of which is used by the company for its operations.
AFG subsidiaries own transferable rights to develop approximately 1.3 million square feet of floor space in the Grand Central Terminal area in New York City. The development rights were derived from ownership of the land upon which the terminal is constructed. Since the beginning of 1999, AFG has sold approximately 420,000 square feet of such air rights for total consideration of $22.2 million.
ITEM 3
Legal Proceedings
AFG and its subsidiaries are involved in various litigation, most of which arose in the ordinary course of business, including litigation alleging bad faith in dealing with policyholders and challenging certain business practices of insurance subsidiaries. Except for the following, management believes that none of the litigation meets the threshold for disclosure under this Item.
AFG's insurance company subsidiaries and American Premier are parties to litigation and receive claims asserting alleged injuries and damages from asbestos, environmental and other substances and workplace hazards and have established loss accruals for such potential liabilities. The ultimate loss for these claims may vary materially from amounts currently recorded as the conditions surrounding resolution of these claims continue to change.
American Premier is a party or named as a potentially responsible party in a number of proceedings and claims by regulatory agencies and private parties under various environmental protection laws, including the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act ("CERCLA"), seeking to impose responsibility on American Premier for hazardous waste or discharge remediation costs at certain railroad sites formerly owned by its predecessor, Penn Central Transportation Company ("PCTC"), and at certain other sites where hazardous waste or discharge allegedly generated by PCTC's railroad operations and APU's former manufacturing operations is present. It is difficult to estimate American Premier's liability for remediation costs at these sites for a number of reasons, including the number and financial resources of other potentially responsible parties involved at a given site, the varying availability of evidence by which to allocate responsibility among such parties, the wide range of costs f or possible remediation alternatives, changing technology and the period of time over which these matters develop. Nevertheless, American Premier believes that its accruals for potential environmental liabilities are adequate to cover the probable amount of such liabilities, based on American Premier's estimates of remediation costs and related expenses and its estimates of the portions of such costs that will be borne by other parties. Such estimates are based on information currently available to American Premier and are subject to future change as additional information becomes available. American Premier seeks reimbursement from certain insurers for portions of whatever remediation costs it incurs.
20
As previously reported, Great American Insurance Company and certain other insurers were parties to asbestos-related coverage litigation under insurance policies issued during the 1970's and 1980's to Bigelow-Liptak Corporation and related companies, subsequently known as A.P. Green Industries, Inc. ("A.P. Green"). These claims alleged that the refractory materials manufactured, sold or installed by A.P. Green contained asbestos and resulted in bodily injury from exposure to asbestos. A.P. Green sought to recover defense and indemnity expenses related to those claims from a number of insurers, including Great American, and in an effort to maximize coverage asserted that Great American's policies were not subject to aggregate limits on liability, and that each insurer was liable for all sums that A.P. Green became legally obliged to pay.
In February 2002, A.P. Green filed petitions for bankruptcy under Chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy Code in the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of Pennsylvania (In Re Global Industrial Technologies, Inc., et al, filed February 14, 2002).
In February 2003, Great American Insurance Company entered into an agreement for the settlement of coverage litigation related to A.P. Green asbestos claims. The settlement is for $123.5 million (Great American has the option to pay in cash or over time with 5.25% interest), all but $30 million of which will be covered by reserves established prior to September 30, 2002, and anticipated reinsurance recoverables. The remaining $30 million was recorded as of December 31, 2002. The agreement allows up to 10% of the settlement to be paid in AFG Common Stock. During the third quarter of 2003, a revised settlement agreement was executed and shortly thereafter approved by the Bankruptcy Court supervising the A.P. Green reorganization. The revised settlement agreement is conditioned upon confirmation of a plan of reorganization that includes an injunction prohibiting the assertion against Great American of any present or future asbestos personal injury claims under policies issued to A.P. Green and related companies. No assurance can be made that all conditions will be met; no payments are required until completion of the process. If the conditions are not met, the outcome of this litigation will again be subject to the complexities and uncertainties associated with a Chapter 11 proceeding and asbestos coverage litigation. Fireman's Fund Insurance Company and Royal Insurance Company of America have filed Third Party Complaints in the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of Pennsylvania for declaratory relief against Great American arising out of their ongoing coverage dispute with A.P. Green. The Parties seek a declaration of whether Great American and the other settling insurers owe any obligations to the non-settling insurers under doctrines of equitable subrogation, equitable contribution or equitable indemnity. This was not unexpected and provisions were included in Great American's settlement agreement with A.P. Green to add ress this contingency.
In October 2003, Republic Insurance Company of America, a wholly-owned subsidiary of AFG, entered into an agreement for the settlement of litigation brought in late 1994 by several medical groups. The lawsuit (NPI Medical Group, a California professional corporation, et al., v. State Compensation Insurance Fund, et al., Superior Court of California, County of Los Angeles) alleged antitrust violations by a number of California workers' compensation insurers, including Republic. While Republic believed it had significant defenses to these antitrust claims, in light of the risks resulting from certain adverse pretrial rulings, it concluded a settlement was in its best interest. The settlement was for $37.5 million, a portion of which was covered by reserves previously established. In September 2003, Republic recorded a $35.5 million charge to cover the balance of the settlement and remaining legal costs.
UTA was a defendant in the class action lawsuit (Peggy Berry, et al. v. United Teacher Associates Insurance Company, Travis County District Court, Case No. GN100461, filed February 11, 2001). The complaint sought unspecified damages based on the alleged misleading disclosure of UTA's interest crediting practices on its fixed rate annuities and various other allegations with respect to the marketing and administration of those annuities. This case was settled based on the agreement of UTA to make certain changes in its business practices with respect to fixed annuities and to pay the attorneys' fees of counsel for the plaintiffs. Settlement of this matter did not have a material impact on UTA or its financial results.
21
PART II
ITEM 5
Market for Registrant's Common Equity and Related Stockholder Matters
AFG Common Stock has been listed and traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol AFG. The information presented in the table below represents the high and low sales prices per share reported on the NYSE Composite Tape.
High
Low
First Quarter
$24.21
$18.00
$28.81
$22.85
Second Quarter
23.90
19.27
30.30
22.51
Third Quarter
23.77
21.27
26.30
17.90
Fourth Quarter
26.70
21.68
24.80
20.82
There were approximately 13,300 shareholders of record of AFG Common Stock at March 1, 2004. In 2003 and 2002, AFG declared and paid quarterly dividends of $.125 per share. The ability of AFG to pay dividends will be dependent upon, among other things, the availability of dividends and payments under intercompany tax allocation agreements from its insurance company subsidiaries.
Equity Compensation Plan Information
The following reflects certain information about shares of AFG Common Stock authorized for issuance (at December 31, 2003) under compensation plans.
Number of securities
available for future
issuance under equity
to be issued upon
Weighted-average
compensation plans
exercise of
exercise price of
(excluding securities
Equity Compensation Plans
outstanding options
reflected in column (a))
Approved by shareholders
7,715,656
$26.56
4,193,536 (1)
Not approved by
shareholders
none
494,560 (2)
(1) Includes options exercisable into 1.9 million shares available for issuance under AFG's
Stock Option Plan, 2.2 million shares issuable under AFG's Employee Stock Purchase Plan
and 73,537 shares issuable under AFG's Nonemployee Directors' Compensation Plan.
(2) Represents shares issuable under AFG's Deferred Compensation Plan. Under this Plan,
certain highly compensated employees of AFG and its subsidiaries may defer up to 80%
of their annual salary and/or bonus. Participants may elect to have the value of
deferrals (i) earn a fixed rate of interest, set annually by the Board of Directors,
or (ii) fluctuate based on the market value of AFG Common Stock, as adjusted to reflect
stock splits, distributions, dividends, and a 7-1/2% match to participant deferrals.
ITEM 6
Selected Financial Data
The following table sets forth certain data for the periods indicated (dollars in millions, except per share data).
Earnings Statement Data
Total Revenues
$3,360
$3,745
$3,919
$3,816
Operating Earnings Before Income Taxes
301
176
86
110
Earnings (Loss) from Continuing Operations
124
(47)
147
Discontinued Operations (b)
(33)
(20)
Extraordinary Items
(2)
Cumulative Effect of Accounting Changes (a)
(40)
(10)
(9)
(4)
Net Earnings (Loss)
294
85
(15)
(56)
141
Basic Earnings (Loss) Per Common Share:
$4.53
$1.80
$.22
($.79)
$2.45
Net Earnings (Loss) Available to Common Shares
4.14
1.23
(.22)
(.95)
2.37
Diluted Earnings (Loss) Per Common Share:
$4.51
$1.79
$2.43
4.12
1.22
2.35
Cash Dividends Paid Per Share of
$.50
$1.00
Ratio of Earnings to Fixed Charges (c):
Including Annuity Benefits
1.69
1.36
1.13
1.18
1.71
Excluding Annuity Benefits
3.71
2.40
1.49
1.63
3.36
Balance Sheet Data
$20,197
$19,505
$17,402
$16,416
$16,054
Long-term Debt:
Holding Companies
586
648
585
493
Subsidiaries
251
297
195
240
Minority Interest
188
471
508
489
Shareholders' Equity
2,076
1,726
1,498
1,549
1,340
Reflects the implementation in the following years of accounting changes mandated by recently enacted accounting standards:
2003 - FIN 46 (Consolidation of Variable Interest Entities)
2002 - SFAS #142 (Goodwill and Other Intangibles)
2001 - EITF 99-20 (Asset-backed Securities)
2000 - SFAS #133 (Derivatives)
1999 - SOP 98-5 (Start-up Costs)
Reflects the results of Transport Insurance Company which is expected to be sold in 2004.
Fixed charges are computed on a "total enterprise" basis. For purposes of calculating the ratios, "earnings" have been computed by adding to pretax earnings the fixed charges and the minority interest in earnings of subsidiaries having fixed charges and the undistributed equity in losses of investees. Fixed charges include interest (including or excluding interest credited to annuity policyholders' accounts as indicated), amortization of debt premium/discount and expense, preferred dividend and distribution requirements of subsidiaries and a portion of rental expense deemed to be representative of the interest factor.
Although the ratio of earnings to fixed charges excluding interest on annuities is not required or encouraged to be disclosed under Securities and Exchange Commission rules, some investors and lenders may not consider interest credited to annuity policyholders' accounts a borrowing cost for an insurance company, and accordingly, believe this ratio is meaningful.
23
ITEM 7
Management's Discussion and Analysis
of Financial Condition and Results of Operations
____________________________________________________________________________________
INDEX TO MD&A
24
35
25
Income Items
Expense Items
Ratios
Other Items
42
Sources of Funds
26
43
Contractual Obligations
Investments
Uncertainties
GENERAL
Following is a discussion and analysis of the financial statements and other statistical data that management believes will enhance the understanding of AFG's financial condition and results of operations. This discussion should be read in conjunction with the financial statements beginning on page F-1.
OVERVIEW
Financial Condition
AFG strengthened its capital and liquidity during 2003 with shareholders' equity growing by more than $350 million (20%) to $2.1 billion. Nearly half of this increase resulted from the elimination of a deferred tax liability following the merger of AFG and two subsidiary holding companies in November. In the merger, AFG issued 3.3 million common shares to retire all $72 million of voting preferred stock of the subsidiary holding company, American Financial Corporation, thereby reducing annual dividends by over $4 million.
AFG and its subsidiaries completed several major cash transactions in 2003, including the following:
In addition, AFG and its subsidiaries issued just over $200 million in debt during the first quarter of 2004 and used the proceeds primarily to retire higher coupon trust preferred securities.
Results of Operations
Through the operations of its subsidiaries, AFG is engaged primarily in property and casualty insurance and in the sale of retirement annuities, life and supplemental health insurance products. With the sale of Infinity, AFG narrowed the focus of its property and casualty business to its specialized commercial products for businesses.
The property and casualty business is cyclical in nature with periods of high competition resulting in low premium rates, sometimes referred to as a "soft market" or "downcycle" followed by periods of reduced competition and higher premium rates,
referred to as a "hard market" or "upcycle." The 1990's were a soft market period; prices started to harden in 2000 and accelerated significantly following the terrorist attacks in 2001. Rates have continued to rise into 2004, although the increases have moderated somewhat during the latter part of 2003.
As discussed in the following pages under "Results of Operations," the profitability of AFG's property and casualty business improved during the hard market despite the negative impact of adverse development on prior year claims and lower yields on newly invested funds.
The operating results of AFG's annuity, life and health business were negatively impacted in 2003 by the continued narrowing of spreads in its fixed annuity operations. This spread narrowing was partially offset by improved results in the other annuity, life and health operations.
AFG's net earnings for 2003 were $294 million ($4.12 per share). Included in net earnings were the following items, net of tax and minority interest:
CRITICAL ACCOUNTING POLICIES
Significant accounting policies are summarized in Note A to the financial statements. The preparation of financial statements in conformity with generally accepted accounting principles requires management to make estimates and assumptions that can have a significant effect on amounts reported in the financial statements. As more information becomes known, these estimates and assumptions could change and thus impact amounts reported in the future. Management believes that the establishment of insurance reserves, especially asbestos and environmental-related reserves, and the determination of "other than temporary" impairment on investments are the two areas where the degree of judgment required to determine amounts recorded in the financial statements make the accounting policies critical. For further discussion of these policies, see "Liquidity and Capital Resources - Investments" and "Liquidity and Capital Resources - Uncertainties."
LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES
AFG's ratio of earnings to fixed charges, including annuity benefits as a fixed charge, was 1.69 for the year ended December 31, 2003. Excluding annuity benefits, this ratio was 3.71 for 2003. Although the ratio excluding interest on annuities is not required or encouraged to be disclosed under Securities and Exchange Commission rules, it is presented because interest credited to annuity policyholder accounts is not always considered a borrowing cost for an insurance company.
The NAIC's model law for risk based capital ("RBC") applies to both life and property and casualty companies. RBC formulas determine the amount of capital that an insurance company needs to ensure that it has an acceptable expectation of not becoming financially impaired. At December 31, 2003, the capital ratios of all AFG insurance companies substantially exceeded the RBC requirements (the lowest capital ratio of any operating AFG subsidiary was 3.7 times its authorized control level RBC; weighted average of all AFG subsidiaries was 5.1 times).
Management believes AFG has sufficient resources to meet its liquidity requirements. If funds generated from operations, including dividends and tax payments from subsidiaries, are insufficient to meet fixed charges in any period, AFG would be required to generate cash through borrowings, sales of securities or other assets, or similar transactions.
AFG's bank credit line consists of two facilities: a 364-day revolving facility, extendable annually, for one-third of the total line and a three-year revolving facility for the remaining two-thirds. Amounts borrowed bear interest at rates ranging from 1.25% to 2.25% over LIBOR based on AFG's credit rating. This credit agreement provides ample liquidity and can be used to obtain funds for operating subsidiaries or, if necessary, for the parent companies. About half of the net proceeds from the issuance of Senior Convertible Notes in June 2003 were used to repay borrowings under AFC's bank line. While the credit line provides up to $280 million of availability, there were no borrowings outstanding at December 31, 2003.
All debentures issued by AFG and GAFRI are rated investment grade by three nationally recognized rating agencies. In February 2004, AFG issued $115 million in 7-1/8% Debentures due 2034 under a shelf registration statement and called for redemption $95.5 million in 9-1/8% trust preferred securities. Under a currently effective shelf registration statement, AFG can issue up to an aggregate of $485 million in additional equity or debt securities. The shelf registration provides AFG with greater flexibility to access the capital markets from time to time as market and other conditions permit.
For statutory accounting purposes, equity securities of non-affiliates are generally carried at market value. At December 31, 2003, AFG's insurance companies owned publicly traded equity securities with a market value of $451 million. In addition, Great American Insurance Company owns GAFRI common stock with a market value of $626 million and a statutory carrying value of $438 million. Decreases in market prices could adversely affect the insurance group's capital, potentially impacting the amount of dividends available or necessitating a capital contribution. Conversely, increases in market prices could have a favorable impact on the group's dividend-paying capability.
Under tax allocation agreements with AFG, its 80%-owned U.S. subsidiaries generally compute tax provisions as if filing separate returns based on book taxable income computed in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. The resulting provision (or credit) is currently payable to (or receivable from) AFG.
Within
More than
One Year
2-3 Years
4-5 Years
5 Years
Long-Term Debt
$ 837.5
$ 2.0
$30.7
$370.3
$434.5
Payable to Subsidiary Trusts
265.5
Operating Leases
117.5
36.1
47.0
21.1
$1,220.5
$38.1
$77.7
$391.4
$713.3
The AFG Convertible Debentures issued in 2003 are included in the above table at the first put date (2008). AFG's Balance Sheet at December 31, 2003, includes estimated liabilities for claims and benefits payable related to its insurance operations. AFG expects operating cash flows to be sufficient to meet these obligations and also have marketable investments available for sale should the operating cash flows prove to be inadequate.
AFG has no material contractual purchase obligations or other long-term liabilities at December 31, 2003.
AFG's goal is to maximize return on an ongoing basis rather than focusing on short-term performance.
Fixed income investment funds are generally invested in securities with intermediate-term maturities with an objective of optimizing total return while allowing flexibility to react to changes in market conditions. At December 31, 2003, the average life of AFG's fixed maturities was about 6-1/2 years.
Approximately 93% of the fixed maturities held by AFG were rated "investment grade" (credit rating of AAA to BBB) by nationally recognized rating agencies at December 31, 2003. Investment grade securities generally bear lower yields and lower degrees of risk than those that are unrated or noninvestment grade. Management believes that the high quality investment portfolio should generate a stable and predictable investment return.
Investments in mortgage backed securities ("MBSs") represented approximately one-fourth of AFG's fixed maturities at December 31, 2003. MBSs are subject to significant prepayment risk due to the fact that, in periods of declining interest rates, mortgages may be repaid more rapidly than scheduled as borrowers refinance higher rate mortgages to take advantage of lower rates. Due to the significant decline in the general level of interest rates in 2002 and 2003, AFG has experienced an increase in the level of prepayments on its MBSs; these prepayments have not been reinvested at interest rates comparable to the rates earned on the prepaid MBSs. Substantially all of AFG's MBSs are investment grade quality, with over 95% rated "AAA" at December 31, 2003.
Summarized information for the unrealized gains and losses recorded in AFG's balance sheet at December 31, 2003, is shown in the following table (dollars in millions). Approximately $95 million of available-for-sale "Fixed maturities" and $21 million of "Other stocks" had no unrealized gains or losses at December 31, 2003.
Securities
With
Unrealized
Gains
Losses
Available-for-sale Fixed Maturities
Market value of securities
$8,845
$3,162
Amortized cost of securities
$8,395
$3,234
Gross unrealized gain (loss)
$ 450
($ 72)
Market value as % of amortized cost
105%
98%
Number of security positions
1,575
286
Number individually exceeding
$2 million gain or loss
Concentration of gains (losses) by
type or industry (exceeding 5% of
unrealized):
Gas and electric services
$ 59.7
($ 4.3)
Banks, savings and credit institutions
55.5
(1.6)
Mortgage-backed securities
45.7
(45.1)
State and municipal
28.5
(2.2)
Telephone communications
25.1
(0.1)
U.S. government and government agencies
24.4
(5.2)
Air transportation (generally collateralized)
Percentage rated investment grade
92%
96%
Other Stocks
$ 393
$ 41
Cost of securities
$ 196
$ 42
$ 197
($ 1)
Market value as % of cost
201%
AFG's investment in equity securities of Provident Financial Group, a Cincinnati-based commercial banking and financial services company, represents $159 million of the $197 million in unrealized gains on other stocks at December 31, 2003.
The table below sets forth the scheduled maturities of AFG's available-for-sale fixed maturity securities at December 31, 2003, based on their market values. Asset backed securities and other securities with sinking funds are reported at average maturity. Actual maturities may differ from contractual maturities because certain securities may be called or prepaid by the issuers.
with
Maturity
One year or less
3%
- %
After one year through five years
29
After five years through ten years
40
After ten years
AFG realized aggregate losses of $5.3 million during 2003 on $52.4 million in sales of fixed maturity securities (9 issues; 8 issuers) that had individual unrealized losses greater than $500,000 at December 31, 2002. Market values of seven of the issues increased an aggregate of $8.9 million from year-end 2002 to date of sale. The market value of the remaining two securities decreased $316,000 from year-end 2002 to the sale date.
28
AFG realized aggregate losses of $11.1 million during 2002 on $72.9 million in sales of fixed maturity securities (14 issues; 12 issuers) that had individual unrealized losses greater than $500,000 at December 31, 2001. Market values of eleven of the securities increased an aggregate of $8 million from year-end 2001 to date of sale. The market value of one of the securities did not change from year-end 2001 to the date of sale. One of the securities was a Conseco bond that decreased in value by $5 million from year-end 2001 to the date of sale due to the continued decline in Conseco's financial condition. The market value of the remaining security decreased $920,000 from year-end 2001 to the sale date.
Although AFG had the ability to continue holding these investments, its intent to hold them changed due primarily to deterioration in the issuers' creditworthiness, decisions to lessen exposure to a particular credit or industry, or to modify asset allocation within the portfolio.
The table below (dollars in millions) summarizes the unrealized gains and losses on fixed maturity securities by dollar amount.
Market
Value as
% of Cost
Value
Gain (Loss)
Basis
Fixed Maturities
Securities with unrealized gains:
Exceeding $500,000 (290 issues)
$3,134
$281
110%
Less than $500,000 (1,285 issues)
5,711
169
103
$450
Securities with unrealized losses:
Exceeding $500,000 (43 issues)
$1,164
($ 43)
Less than $500,000 (243 issues)
1,998
(29
99
The following table summarizes (dollars in millions) the unrealized loss for all fixed maturity securities with unrealized losses by issuer quality and length of time those securities have been in an unrealized loss position.
Fixed Maturities with Unrealized
Losses at December 31, 2003
Investment grade with losses for:
One year or less (227 issues)
$2,953
($58)
Greater than one year (17 issues)
90
(5
$3,043
($63)
Non-investment grade with losses for:
One year or less (15 issues)
($ 2)
Greater than one year (27 issues)
97
(7
$ 119
($ 9)
93%
When a decline in the value of a specific investment is considered to be "other than temporary," a provision for impairment is charged to earnings (accounted for as a realized loss) and the cost basis of that investment is reduced. The determination of whether unrealized losses are "other than temporary" requires judgment based on subjective as well as objective factors. Factors considered and resources used by management include:
Based on its analysis of the factors enumerated above, management believes (i) AFG will recover its cost basis in the securities with unrealized losses and (ii) that AFG has the ability and intent to hold the securities until they mature or recover in value. Should either of these beliefs change with regard to a particular security, a charge for impairment would likely be required. While it is not possible to accurately predict if or when a specific security will become impaired, charges for other than temporary impairment could be material to results of operations in a future period. Management believes it is not likely that future impairment charges will have a significant effect on AFG's liquidity.
Net realized gains (losses) on securities sold and charges for "other than temporary" impairment on securities held were as follows (in millions):
Net Realized
Gains (Losses)
Charges for
on Sales
Impairment
$117.1
($ 58.4)
$ 0.2
$58.9
112.8
(179.4)
(12.4)
(79.0)
89.1
(125.5) (b)
11.6
(24.8)
(1.9)
(27.5)
(26.8)
37.4
(19.4)
20.1
Increased impairment charges in recent years reflect a rise in corporate
defaults in the marketplace resulting from the weakened economy and other factors.
Property and Casualty Insurance Reserves
December 31,
$4,105
$3,712
838
Other lines (including asbestos
and environmental)
561
654
The liabilities for unpaid claims and for expenses of investigation and adjustment of unpaid claims are based upon: (a) the accumulation of case estimates for losses reported prior to the close of the accounting periods on direct business written; (b) estimates received from ceding reinsurers and insurance pools and associations; (c) estimates of unreported losses based on past experience; (d) estimates based on experience of expense for investigating and adjusting claims; and (e) the current state of law and coverage litigation. Using these items as well as historical trends adjusted for changes in underwriting standards, policy provisions, product mix and other factors, company actuaries determine a single or "point" estimate which management utilizes in recording its best estimate of the liabilities. Ranges of loss reserves are not developed by company actuaries.
Estimating the liability for unpaid losses and LAE is inherently judgmental and is influenced by factors which are subject to significant variation. Through the use of analytical reserve development techniques, management utilizes items such as the effect of inflation on medical, hospitalization, material, repair and replacement costs, general economic trends and the legal environment.
While current factors and reasonably likely changes in variable factors are considered in estimating the liability for unpaid losses, there is no method or system which can eliminate the risk of actual ultimate results differing from such estimates. As shown in the reserve development table (loss triangle) on page 11, the original estimates of AFG's liability for losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance, over the past 10 years have developed through December 31, 2003, to be deficient (for three years) by as much as 10.4% and redundant (for 7 years) by as much as 7.2% (excluding the effect of special charges for asbestos and environmental exposures). AFG believes this development illustrates the variability in factors considered in estimating its insurance reserves.
Quarterly reviews of unpaid loss and LAE reserves are prepared using standard actuarial techniques. These may include: Case Incurred Development Method; Paid Development Method; Bornhuetter-Ferguson Method; and Incremental Paid LAE to Paid Loss Methods. Generally, data is segmented by major product or coverage within product using countrywide data; however, in some situations data may be reviewed by state or region.
Asbestos and Environmental-related ("A&E") Reserves
While management believes that AFG's reserves for A&E claims are a reasonable estimate of ultimate liability for such claims, actual results may vary materially from the amounts currently recorded due to the difficulty in predicting the number of future claims and the impact of recent bankruptcy filings, and unresolved issues such as whether coverage exists, whether policies are subject to aggregate limits on coverage, whether claims are to be allocated among triggered policies and implicated years, and whether claimants who exhibit no signs of illness will be successful in pursuing their claims.
In February 2003, Great American Insurance Company entered into an agreement for the settlement of asbestos related coverage litigation under insurance polices issued during the 1970's and 1980's to Bigelow-Liptak Corporation and related companies, subsequently known as A.P. Green Industries, Inc. Management believes that this settlement will enhance financial certainty and provides resolution to litigation that represents AFG's largest known asbestos-related claim and the only such claim that management believes to be material.
The settlement is for $123.5 million (Great American has the option to pay in cash or over time with 5.25% interest), all but $30 million of which was covered by reserves established prior to September 30, 2002, and anticipated reinsurance recoverables for this matter. As a result, AFG recorded a $30 million pretax charge ($19.5 million after tax) in the fourth quarter of 2002. The agreement allows up to 10% of the settlement to be paid in AFG Common Stock.
The settlement has received the approval of the bankruptcy court supervising the reorganization of A.P. Green. It remains subject to the confirmation by the bankruptcy court of a plan of reorganization that includes an injunction prohibiting the assertion against Great American of any present or future asbestos personal injury claims under policies issued to A.P. Green and related companies. This process should be completed in 2004. No assurance can be made that a plan of reorganization will be confirmed; no payments are required until completion of the process. If there is no plan confirmation, the outcome of this litigation will again be subject to the complexities and uncertainties associated with a Chapter 11 proceeding and asbestos coverage litigation.
The payments and reserve balances for asbestos, environmental and other mass torts were as follows (in millions):
Net
Amounts
Reserve
Paid in
Balance
12/31/03
Asbestos
$23.6
$278.7
Environmental
15.6
121.2
Other Mass Tort
4.3
23.4
$43.5
$423.3
Nearly one-half of AFG's asbestos reserves relate to policies written by AFG subsidiaries. Claims from these policies generally are product oriented claims with only a limited amount of non-product exposures, and are dominated by small to mid-sized commercial entities that are mostly regional policyholders with few national target defendants.
The assumed reinsurance business includes exposures for the periods 1954 to 1983. The asbestos and environmental assumed claims are ceded by various insurance companies under reinsurance treaties. A majority of the individual assumed claims have exposures of less than $100,000 to AFG. Asbestos losses assumed include some of the industry known manufacturers, distributors and installers. Pollution losses include industry known insured names and sites.
Other mass tort losses include lead, silica and various chemical exposures.
32
Exposure to Market Risk
Fixed Maturity Portfolio
The following table provides information about AFG's "available for sale" fixed maturity investments at December 31, 2003 and 2002, that are sensitive to interest rate risk. The table shows principal cash flows (in millions) and related weighted average interest rates by expected maturity date for each of the five subsequent years and for all years thereafter. Callable bonds and notes are included based on call date or maturity date depending upon which date produces the most conservative yield. Mortgage-backed securities ("MBSs") and sinking fund issues are included based on maturity year adjusted for expected payment patterns. Actual cash flows may differ from those expected.
December 31, 2002
Principal
Cash Flows
Rate
2004
$ 647
7.19%
$ 1,301
10.09%
2005
1,120
4.86
848
8.31
2006
947
6.22
1,035
7.05
2007
778
6.42
1,135
6.69
2008
1,132
5.98
6.12
Thereafter
6,994
5.89
5,939
6.13
$11,618
5.94%
$11,416
6.88%
Fair Value
$12,007
Equity Price Risk
Annuity Contracts
33
Projected payments (in millions) in each of the subsequent five years and for all years thereafter on GAFRI's fixed annuity liabilities at December 31 were as follows.
Fair
First
Second
Third
Fourth
Fifth
$610
$710
$870
$740
$690
$3,355
$6,975
$6,781
550
610
740
810
700
3,044
6,454
6,284
Approximately half of GAFRI's fixed annuity liabilities at December 31, 2003, were two-tier in nature in that policyholders can receive a higher amount if they annuitize rather than surrender their policy, even if the surrender charge period has expired. At December 31, 2003, the average stated crediting rate on the inforce block of GAFRI's principal fixed annuity products was approximately 4.1%. The current stated crediting rates (excluding bonus interest) on new sales of GAFRI's products generally range from 2.8% to 3.3%. GAFRI estimates that its effective weighted-average crediting rate on its inforce business over the next five years will approximate 3.8%. This rate reflects actuarial assumptions as to (i) expected investment spread, (ii) deaths, (iii) annuitizations, (iv) surrenders and (v) renewal premiums. Actual experience and changes in actuarial assumptions may result in different effective crediting rates than those above.
GAFRI's equity-indexed fixed annuities provide policyholders with a crediting rate tied, in part, to the performance of an existing stock market index. GAFRI attempts to mitigate the risk in the equity-based component of these products through the purchase of call options on the appropriate index. GAFRI's strategy is designed so that an increase in the liabilities, due to an increase in the market index, will be substantially offset by unrealized and realized gains on the call options purchased by GAFRI. Under SFAS No. 133, both the equity-based component of the annuities and the related call options are considered derivatives and marked to market through current earnings as annuity benefits. Adjusting these derivatives to market value had a net effect of less than 1% of annuity benefits in 2003 and 2002. In 2002, GAFRI chose to suspend new sales of equity-indexed annuities due primarily to lack of volume.
Debt and Preferred Securities
Scheduled
Payments
$ 9.9
9.11%
18.6
6.74
$ 10.1
9.09%
75.3
7.13
289.9
4.99
79.9
434.5
7.30
429.4
7.14
$829.0
6.48%
$539.8
7.16%
$877.8
$504.2
(*) Less than $2 million.
The AFG Convertible Debentures issued in 2003 are included in the above table at the first put date (2008). In December 2003, GAFRI entered into an interest rate swap, effectively converting $40 million of its 6-7/8% fixed-rate Notes due in 2008 (included in the table above) to a floating rate (about 4.1% at December 31, 2003).
At December 31, 2002, AFG and GAFRI had a total of $396.6 million outstanding under their variable rate bank lines (2.8% weighted average interest rate at December 31, 2002). No amounts were borrowed under the bank lines at December 31, 2003.
There were $265 million and $242 million of subsidiary trust preferred securities with a weighted average interest rate of 8.74% and 9.09% outstanding at December 31, 2003 and 2002, respectively. Although none of these are scheduled for maturity or mandatory redemption during the next five years, approximately $190 million were redeemed in the first quarter of 2004. Under Financial Accounting Standards Board Interpretation No. 46 ("FIN 46"), which AFG implemented as of December 31, 2003, AFG was required to deconsolidate the wholly-owned subsidiary trusts that issued these securities because they are "variable interest entities" in which AFG is not considered to be the primary beneficiary. These subsidiary trusts were formed to issue the preferred securities and, in turn, purchase a like amount of subordinated debt from their parent company, which provides interest and principal payments to fund the respective trust obligations. Accordingly, at December 31, 2003, the subordinated debt due the trusts is shown as a liability in the Balance Sheet. Prior to that date, the subsidiary trust preferred securities were included in minority interest in the Balance Sheet.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS - THREE YEARS ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2003
Net earnings (loss)
$293.8
$84.6
($14.8)
After tax income (expense) items included in
net earnings:
Arbitration settlement
(28.5)
Litigation settlements
(23.1)
(19.5)
Special tax benefits
141.5
31.0
A&E charge and WTC losses
(61.1)
Net earnings (losses) from investee corporations
9.1
(9.0)
(16.5)
Realized investment gains (losses)
50.8
(44.7)
(13.1)
Discontinued operations
(33.6)
(19.9)
Cumulative effect of accounting changes
6.3
(40.4)
(10.0)
Diluted per share amounts:
$4.12
$1.22
($ .22)
(.41)
(.33)
(.28)
2.01
.44
(.90)
Investee corporations
.13
(.13)
(.24)
.73
(.64)
(.19)
(.48)
.02
(.29)
.09
(.59)
(.15)
In addition to the effects of items shown in the table above, net earnings increased in 2003 as improved underwriting results more than offset a decline in the fixed annuity operations. Net earnings increased in 2002 primarily due to significantly improved underwriting results and income from the sale of real estate, partially offset by reduced earnings in the annuity and life operations. Net earnings for 2001 include goodwill amortization expense of $13.7 million ($.20 per share).
Property and Casualty Insurance - Underwriting
The Specialty group includes a highly diversified group of business lines. Some of the more significant areas are inland and ocean marine, California workers' compensation, agricultural-related coverages, executive and professional liability, fidelity and surety bonds, commercial auto, collateral protection, umbrella, and excess and surplus coverages.
The Personal group wrote nonstandard and preferred/standard private passenger auto insurance and, to a lesser extent, homeowners' insurance. Nonstandard automobile insurance covers risks not typically accepted for standard automobile coverage because of the applicant's driving record, type of vehicle, age or other criteria.
To understand the overall profitability of particular lines, the timing of claims payments and the related impact of investment income must be considered. Certain "short-tail" lines of business (primarily property coverages) have quick loss payouts which reduce the time funds are held, thereby limiting investment income earned thereon. On the other hand, "long-tail" lines of business (primarily liability coverages and workers' compensation) have payouts that are either structured over many years or take many years to settle, thereby significantly increasing investment income earned on related premiums received.
Underwriting profitability is measured by the combined ratio which is a sum of the ratios of underwriting losses, loss adjustment expenses, underwriting expenses and policyholder dividends to premiums. When the combined ratio is under 100%, underwriting results are generally considered profitable; when the ratio is over 100%, underwriting results are generally considered unprofitable. The combined ratio does not reflect investment income, other income or federal income taxes.
For certain lines of business and products where the credibility of the range of loss estimates is less certain (primarily many of the various specialty businesses listed above), management believes that it is prudent and appropriate to use conservative assumptions until such time as the data, experience and projections have more credibility, as evidenced by data volume, consistency and maturity of the data. While this practice mitigates the risk of adverse development on this business, it does not eliminate it.
While AFG desires and seeks to earn an underwriting profit on all of its business, it is not always possible to do so. As a result, AFG attempts to expand in the most profitable areas and control growth or even reduce its involvement in the least profitable ones.
Over the last several years, AFG has been realigning its property and casualty business mix and focusing on rate adequacy in order to improve its operating profitability. Management has continued to direct capital in order to take advantage of certain specialty market opportunities. Management believes these actions have been successful and that the current mix of specialty businesses positions the company for solid growth and continuing improved profitability in the foreseeable future.
AFG's combined ratio has been better than the industry average for seventeen of the last eighteen years and excluding AFG's special A&E charges, for all eighteen years. Management believes that AFG's insurance operations have performed better than the industry as a result of product line diversification and stringent underwriting discipline.
Premiums and combined ratios for AFG's property and casualty insurance operations were as follows (dollars in millions):
Gross Written Premiums (GAAP)
Specialty:
Total Specialty
3,243
2,713
2,236
Personal (a)
265
1,222
1,284
Net Written Premiums (GAAP)
1,854
1,577
1,542
158
837
1,040
Combined Ratios (GAAP)
96.0
98.4
101.7
103.0
99.8
107.9
Aggregate (including discontinued lines)(b)
101.0%
107.5%
(a) Includes the operations of Infinity through the sale date in mid-February
2003 and the direct auto business through its sale at the end of April 2003.
(b) Includes 2.3 points in 2003 for the effect of an arbitration decision
relating to a claim arising from a business in runoff, 1.2 points for
2002 relating to the A. P. Green asbestos litigation charge and 3.6 points
for 2001 relating to the A&E charge and the attack on the World Trade
Center.
37
As shown in Note P under "Insurance Reserves," AFG's property and casualty operations recorded loss development of $167 million in 2003, $171 million in 2002 and $163 million in 2001 related to prior accident years. Major areas of adverse development were as follows (in millions):
Property and transportation
$ 32
$ 19
$ 10
Specialty casualty
82
78
Personal lines
44
49
108
(3
$167
$171
$163
(*) Amounts are immaterial and included in Other.
The prior year development in Property and transportation related primarily to higher than anticipated frequency of claims in the 1993 through 2001 accident years for the homebuilders' liability business, which is in runoff.
Specialty casualty development includes amounts related to executive liability, other liability and excess casualty runoff. Executive liability development impacted 2001, 2002 and 2003 and resulted primarily from claim severity on directors' and officers' liability policy coverages for 1996 through 2000. Both settlement and defense costs related to shareholder lawsuits have increased beyond estimates. The development in other liability impacted both 2003 and 2002 reflecting an unexpected shift of judicial climate in some previously conservative states. Verdicts, judgments, and settlements have increased. The development in excess casualty runoff during 2002 reflects higher frequency of claims related to the 1999 and 2000 accident years. Excess casualty runoff development in 2001, and to a lesser extent in 2002, was affected by increased severity resulting from a rigorous claims review of case reserves established by former management.
In the personal lines, personal injury and uninsured motorist claims experienced increased severity. During 2002, claims remained open longer and settlement amounts were higher than in previous years.
The arbitration settlement represents a charge in the second quarter of 2003 for an unfavorable decision resulting from Great American's share of a 1995 property fire and business interruption claim. Great American was a 9.5% participant with a number of other companies in the insurance pool that insured the loss during the 1995 coverage year.
Asbestos development was due primarily to a charge of $30 million for the settlement of asbestos-related coverage in litigation in 2002 and the special $100 million A & E charge in 2001, which is discussed below. See "Uncertainties -Asbestos and Environmental-related Reserves" for additional information about these claims.
2001 Special A&E Charge
38
The Specialty group's combined ratio improved 2.4 points over 2002 reflecting rate increases partially offset by $16 million in higher prior year development in 2003.
The 29% growth in property and transportation gross written premiums reflects significant volume growth in the federal crop insurance program. In addition, the other property and transportation business experienced rate increases and volume growth in 2003. The 14% increase in gross written premium in specialty casualty primarily relates to rate increases. The 19% increase in specialty financial gross written premiums reflects rate increases as well as volume growth in the fidelity and crime products and certain collateral protection products. The 27% increase in California workers' compensation relates mostly to rate increases.
The 2.3 point improvement in property and transportation's combined ratio reflects rate increases, partially offset by $13 million in additional prior year development in 2003 compared to 2002. Specialty Casualty's 8.4 point combined ratio improvement is primarily due to rate increases.
The specialty financial combined ratio deterioration of 6.9 points is primarily a result of the decline in results related to the residual value products. Lower used car prices, dealer incentives on new cars and the volume of used cars available from expiring leases contributed to the deterioration in the residual value results. California workers' compensation combined ratio improved 4.4 points as rate increases and $10 million of benefit related to recently enacted legislation were partially offset by increased claim costs.
The Specialty group's gross written premiums increased 21% in 2002 compared to 2001, reflecting the effect of rate increases and the volume growth in certain businesses, partially offset by planned reductions in less profitable lines of business. Specialty rate increases averaged about 27% during 2002. Net written premiums increased 2% in 2002 compared to 2001 as strong growth in gross written premiums was offset by the impact of increased reinsurance coverage in certain lines.
Excluding the effect of the attack on the World Trade Center, the Specialty group's combined ratio improved 1.5 points for 2002. The improvement reflects strategic changes in the mix of specialty businesses and the impact of rate increases, partially offset by the effects of prior year loss development.
The Personal group's gross written premiums for 2002 decreased about 5% compared to 2001 due primarily to intentional reductions in new business volume in certain non-core markets and through the direct channel, partially offset by the effect of continuing rate increases and volume growth in target markets. Due primarily to rate increases and a reduction in marketing and media cost of the direct business, the Personal group's combined ratio improved by 8.1 points compared to 2001.
Life, Accident and Health Premiums and Benefits
Investment Income
39
due primarily to higher average investment in fixed maturity securities, partially offset by lower average yields on those investments.
Gains (Losses) on Securities
Realized gains (losses) on securities include losses of $1.1 million in 2003 and $11.9 million in 2002, and gains of $5.2 million in 2001 to adjust the carrying value of AFG's investment in warrants to market value under SFAS No. 133.
Gains (Losses) on Sales of Subsidiaries and Investees
In 2002, AFG recognized a $10.8 million pretax loss on the disposal of its New Jersey private passenger auto business.
In 2001, AFG recognized a $7.1 million pretax gain on the sale of a small insurance subsidiary. In connection with the sale of the Japanese division in 2001, AFG recognized a $6.9 million pretax loss and deferred a gain of approximately $21 million on ceded insurance which is being recognized over the estimated settlement period (weighted average of 4 years) of the ceded claims.
Gain on Sale of Other Investments
Real Estate Operations
Other income
$96.5
$115.0
$102.6
Other operating and general expenses
73.7
71.7
64.9
Interest charges on borrowed money
2.3
Minority interest expense, net
1.1
Other income includes net pretax gains on the sale of real estate assets of$10.3 million in 2003, $31.0 million in 2002 and $27.2 million in 2001.
Other Income
2003 compared to 2002
2002 compared to 2001
Annuity Benefits
The majority of GAFRI's fixed annuity products permit GAFRI to change the crediting rate at any time subject to minimum interest rate guarantees (as determined by applicable law). Approximately half of the annuity benefits accumulated relate to policies that have a minimum guarantee of 3%; the majority of the balance has a guarantee of 4%. In states where required approvals have been received, GAFRI has begun issuing products with guaranteed minimum crediting rates of less than 3% beginning in the fourth quarter of 2003.
Historically, management has been able to react to changes in market interest rates and maintain a desired interest rate spread. The recent interest rate environment has resulted in a spread compression. Significant changes in projected investment yields could result in charges (or credits) to earnings in the period the projections are modified.
Annuity and Life Acquisition Expenses
2003 compared to 2002 The increase in annuity and life acquisition expenses in 2003 compared to 2002 reflects the continued narrowing of spreads in the fixed annuity operations and an increase in in-force policies, primarily in the annuities and supplemental insurance operations. Included in 2003 were $15.2 million in DPAC writeoffs related to spread narrowing.
2002 compared to 2001 The increase in annuity and life acquisition expenses in 2002 compared to 2001 reflects (i) a writeoff of DPAC; (ii) the amortization costs associated with GAFRI's purchase of MNL in June 2002 and (iii) higher commission expense due to GAFRI's growth in premiums. Included in 2002 and 2001 were DPAC writeoffs related to variable annuities of $13.5 million and $3.0 million, respectively, resulting from the actual performance of the equity markets and a reduction of assumed future returns. Included in 2002 is a DPAC writeoff of $4 million related primarily to adverse mortality in GAFRI's life operations. Partially offsetting the DPAC writeoffs in 2002 was a reduction of approximately $7 million in DPAC amortization on fixed annuities relating to decreases in crediting rates on certain fixed annuity products.
The vast majority of GAFRI's DPAC asset relates to its fixed annuity, variable annuity and life insurance lines of business. Continued spread compression, decreases in the stock market and adverse mortality could lead to write-offs of DPAC in the future. However, absent significant deterioration in those factors, GAFRI does not anticipate any material write-offs in the foreseeable future.
Interest on Borrowed Money
2003 compared to 2002 Interest expense decreased in 2003 primarily due to lower average indebtedness and lower interest charges on amounts due reinsurers.
2002 compared to 2001 Interest expense was virtually unchanged in 2002 as lower average rates on AFG's variable rate debt were substantially offset by higher average indebtedness and higher average payable to reinsurers balances.
Other Operating and General Expenses
2003 compared to 2002 Other operating and general expenses for 2003 include a third quarter pretax charge of $35.5 million related to an agreement to settle a lawsuit alleging antitrust violations by a number of California workers' compensation insurers including an AFG subsidiary. Excluding this charge, other operating and general expenses decreased 2% in 2003 compared to 2002 as the absence of expenses from Infinity (following its sale in mid-February) offset higher expenses in the Specialty group's growing warranty business.
2002 compared to 2001 Other operating and general expenses for 2001 include goodwill amortization of $13.7 million. Under SFAS No. 142, which was implemented January 1, 2002, goodwill is no longer amortized. Excluding 2001 goodwill amortization, other operating and general expenses increased $37.7 million (10%) in 2002. Expenses of the Specialty group's new warranty business, higher expenses in real estate operations (due primarily to the acquisition of a new hotel in May 2002) and higher expenses related to growth in certain other Specialty operations were partially offset by lower charges for environmental reserves related to former operations and lower technology-related expenses.
Income Taxes
Investee Corporations
Infinity Property and Casualty Corporation
Start-up Manufacturing Businesses
Cumulative Effect of Accounting Changes
See Note A - "Accounting Policies" - "Managed Investment Entity" and "Payable to Subsidiary Trusts." The cumulative effect of implementing FIN 46 was an increase in income of $6.3 million.
Effective January 1, 2002, AFG implemented Statement of Financial Accounting Standards ("SFAS") No. 142, "Goodwill and Other Intangible Assets", under which goodwill is no longer amortized, but is subject to an impairment test at least annually. The initial impairment testing resulted in a charge of $40.4 million (net of minority interest and taxes) for the cumulative effect of a change in accounting principle.
In 2001, the cumulative effect of accounting change represents the implementation of a new accounting standard (EITF 99-20) which resulted in a writedown of $10.0 million (net of minority interest and taxes) of the carrying value of certain collateralized debt obligations as of April 1, 2001.
RECENT ACCOUNTING STANDARDS
The following accounting standards have been or may be implemented by AFG. The implementation of these standards is discussed under various subheadings of Note A to the Financial Statements; effects of each are shown in the relevant Notes.
Accounting
Subject of Standard (Year Implemented)
Reference
EITF 99-20
Asset-backed Securities (2001)
"Investments"
SFAS #141
Business Combinations (2001)
"Business Combinations"
SFAS #142
Goodwill and Other Intangibles (2002)
"Goodwill"
SFAS #144
Impairment or Disposal of Long-Lived
Assets (2002)
"Discontinued Operations"
SFAS #148
Stock-based Compensation (2002)
"Stock-based Compensation"
FIN 46
Consolidation of Variable Interest
"Managed Investment Entity"/
Entities (2003)
"Payable to Subsidiary Trust"
SFAS #133 B36
Embedded Derivatives in Reinsurance
Contracts (2003)
"Reinsurance"
Other standards issued in recent years did not apply to AFG or had only negligible effects on AFG.
SOP 03-1
GAFRI will adopt the SOP effective January 1, 2004. Although interpretation of accounting for certain items covered by the SOP has not been finalized, the effect of initially adopting this SOP is expected to be less than 1% of AFG's equity and will be reported as a cumulative effect of a change in accounting principle in the 2004 results of operations. This effect results primarily from the change in accounting for persistency bonuses. GAFRI does not expect that the final amount will have a material adverse impact on the company.
ITEM 7A
Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
The information required by Item 7A is included in Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations.
ITEM 8
Financial Statements and Supplementary Data
Report of Independent Auditors
F-1
Consolidated Balance Sheet:
December 31, 2003 and 2002
F-2
Consolidated Statement of Operations:
Years ended December 31, 2003, 2002, and 2001
F-3
Consolidated Statement of Changes in Shareholders' Equity:
F-4
Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows:
F-5
Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements
F-6
"Selected Quarterly Financial Data" has been included in Note O to the
Consolidated Financial Statements.
ITEM 9A
Controls and Procedures
AFG's management, with participation of its Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer, has evaluated AFG's disclosure controls and procedures (as defined in Exchange Act Rule 13a-15) as of the end of the period covered by this report. Based on that evaluation, AFG's CEO and CFO concluded that the controls and procedures are effective. There have been no significant changes in AFG's internal controls or in other factors that could significantly affect these controls subsequent to the date of their evaluation.
PART III
The information required by the following Items will be included in AFG's definitive Proxy Statement for the 2004 Annual Meeting of Shareholders which will be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission within 120 days after the end of Registrant's fiscal year and is incorporated herein by reference.
ITEM 10
ITEM 11 Executive Compensation
ITEM 12 Security Ownership of Certain Beneficial Owners and Management and
Related Stockholder Matters
ITEM 13 Certain Relationships and Related Transactions
ITEM 14 Principal Accountant Fees and Services
REPORT OF INDEPENDENT AUDITORS
Board of Directors
American Financial Group, Inc.
We have audited the accompanying consolidated balance sheet of American Financial Group, Inc. and subsidiaries as of December 31, 2003 and 2002, and the related consolidated statements of operations, changes in shareholders' equity and cash flows for each of the three years in the period ended December 31, 2003. Our audits also included the financial statement schedules listed in the Index at Item 15(a). These financial statements and schedules are the responsibility of the Company's management. Our responsibility is to express an opinion on these financial statements and schedules based on our audits.
We conducted our audits in accordance with auditing standards generally accepted in the United States. Those standards require that we plan and perform the audit to obtain reasonable assurance about whether the financial statements are free of material misstatement. An audit includes examining, on a test basis, evidence supporting the amounts and disclosures in the financial statements. An audit also includes assessing the accounting principles used and significant estimates made by management, as well as evaluating the overall financial statement presentation. We believe that our audits provide a reasonable basis for our opinion.
In our opinion, the financial statements referred to above present fairly, in all material respects, the consolidated financial position of American Financial Group, Inc. and subsidiaries at December 31, 2003 and 2002, and the consolidated results of their operations and their cash flows for each of the three years in the period ended December 31, 2003, in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States. Also, in our opinion, the related financial statement schedules, when considered in relation to the basic financial statements taken as a whole, present fairly in all material respects the information set forth therein.
As discussed in Notes A and E to the consolidated financial statements, in 2002, the Company implemented Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 142, which required a change in the method of accounting for goodwill, and in 2003, the Company implemented FASB interpretation No. 46, which required a change in consolidation policy related to variable interest entities.
ERNST & YOUNG LLP
Cincinnati, Ohio
February 12, 2004
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET
(Dollars In Thousands)
Assets:
Cash and short-term investments
$ 593,552
$ 871,103
Investments:
Fixed maturities:
Available for sale - at market
(amortized cost - $11,724,181 and $11,549,710)
12,101,981
12,006,910
Trading - at market
195,390
Other stocks - at market
(cost - $258,466 and $174,645)
454,866
300,445
Policy loans
215,571
214,852
Real estate and other investments
266,435
257,731
Total cash and investments
13,827,795
13,651,041
Recoverables from reinsurers and prepaid
reinsurance premiums
3,131,775
2,866,780
Agents' balances and premiums receivable
502,458
708,327
Deferred acquisition costs
851,199
842,070
Other receivables
320,517
307,008
Assets of managed investment entity
424,669
Variable annuity assets (separate accounts)
568,434
455,142
Prepaid expenses, deferred charges and other assets
402,081
425,775
Goodwill
168,330
248,683
$20,197,258
$19,504,826
Liabilities and Capital:
Unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses
$ 4,909,109
$ 5,203,831
Unearned premiums
1,594,839
1,847,924
Annuity benefits accumulated
6,974,629
6,453,881
Life, accident and health reserves
1,018,861
902,393
Payable to reinsurers
408,518
508,718
Long-term debt:
Holding companies
586,051
648,410
250,811
296,771
Payable to subsidiary trusts (issuers of preferred
securities)
265,472
Liabilities of managed investment entity
406,547
Variable annuity liabilities (separate accounts)
Accounts payable, accrued expenses and other
liabilities
950,267
990,884
Total liabilities
17,933,538
17,307,954
Minority interest (including trust-issued preferred
securities at December 31, 2002)
187,559
471,024
Shareholders' Equity:
Common Stock, no par value
- 200,000,000 shares authorized
- 73,056,085 and 69,129,352 shares outstanding
73,056
69,129
Capital surplus
1,035,784
923,042
Retained earnings
664,721
409,777
Unrealized gain on marketable securities, net
302,600
323,900
Total shareholders' equity
2,076,161
1,725,848
See notes to consolidated financial statements.
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF OPERATIONS
(In Thousands, Except Per Share Data)
Year ended December 31,
Income:
Property and casualty insurance premiums
$1,909,206
$2,402,600
$2,593,938
Life, accident and health premiums
331,887
305,647
280,122
Investment income
773,188
861,503
851,479
Realized gains (losses) on:
58,891
(78,968)
(24,776)
Subsidiaries and investees
19,824
(10,769)
170
Other investments
9,253
266,647
255,609
218,328
3,359,643
3,744,875
3,919,261
Costs and Expenses:
Property and casualty insurance:
Losses and loss adjustment expenses
1,353,177
1,812,495
2,047,057
Commissions and other underwriting expenses
534,161
614,062
741,026
Annuity benefits
294,940
300,966
294,654
Life, accident and health benefits
250,713
245,271
213,022
Annuity and life acquisition expenses
121,322
114,507
79,297
57,320
60,407
60,744
447,004
421,344
397,307
3,058,637
3,569,052
3,833,107
Operating earnings before income taxes
301,006
175,823
86,154
Provision (benefit) for income taxes
(47,454
17,117
20,471
Net operating earnings
348,460
158,706
65,683
Minority interest expense, net of tax
(36,393)
(26,149)
(34,070)
Equity in net earnings (losses) of investees,
net of tax
9,084
(8,990
(16,550
Earnings (loss) from continuing operations
321,151
123,567
15,063
(33,636)
1,433
(19,863)
6,300
(40,360
(10,040
$ 293,815
$ 84,640
($ 14,840)
Premium over stated value paid on redemption
of subsidiaries' preferred shares
(4,121)
Net earnings (loss) available to Common Shares
$ 289,694
Basic earnings (loss) per Common Share:
Continuing operations
(.59
(.15
$4.14
$1.23
($.22)
Diluted earnings (loss) per Common Share:
Average number of Common Shares:
Basic
69,937
68,800
67,928
Diluted
70,272
69,203
68,368
Cash dividends per Common Share
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CHANGES IN SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY
Common
and Capital
Retained
Gain on
Shares
Surplus
Earnings
Balance at December 31, 2000
67,410,091
$ 965,654
$442,276
$140,600
$1,548,530
(14,840)
Change in unrealized
18,700
Comprehensive income
3,860
Dividends on Common Stock
(67,874)
Shares issued:
Exercise of stock options
65,335
1,522
Dividend reinvestment plan
85,105
1,806
Employee stock purchase plan
53,370
1,365
Retirement plan contributions
876,877
20,970
Deferred compensation distributions
331
Directors fees paid in stock
4,044
96
Shares acquired and retired
(3,543)
(51)
(49)
(100)
Tax effect of intercompany dividends
(6,400)
Capital transactions of subsidiaries
(4,215)
(1,190
Balance at December 31, 2001
68,491,610
$ 979,566
$359,513
$159,300
$1,498,379
Net earnings
$ -
164,600
249,240
(34,367)
28,837
656
298,076
6,616
45,869
1,143
260,040
6,589
1,809
45
3,904
(793)
(12)
(21)
(3,200)
672
Balance at December 31, 2002
69,129,352
$ 992,171
$409,777
$323,900
$1,725,848
$293,815
(21,300)
(21,300
272,515
(34,750)
AFG/AFC merger
3,299,563
75,032
(4,048)
70,984
35,000
771
165,428
3,412
41,940
914
376,234
7,740
3,300
5,272
115
Elimination of tax effect of prior
intercompany dividends
34,000
Repurchase of trust preferred securities
(73)
(5,386
Balance at December 31, 2003
73,056,085
$1,108,840
$664,721
$302,600
$2,076,161
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS
(In Thousands)
Operating Activities:
Adjustments:
(6,300)
40,360
10,040
Equity in net (earnings) losses of investees
(9,084)
8,990
16,550
Minority interest
16,470
6,096
11,366
Depreciation and amortization
176,857
174,990
126,167
Realized (gains) losses on investing activities
(35,633)
49,093
(2,604)
Deferred annuity and life policy acquisition
costs
(148,247)
(170,194)
(137,724)
Increase in reinsurance and other receivables
(515,698)
(669,776)
(298,995)
Decrease (increase) in other assets
(85,511)
30,978
(16,211)
Increase in insurance claims and reserves
717,010
703,244
546,522
Increase (decrease) in payable to reinsurers
(21,398)
212,256
154,384
Increase in other liabilities
56,277
39,415
4,558
Other, net
16,002
1,252
28,650
749,500
812,310
722,517
Investing Activities
Purchases of and additional investments in:
Fixed maturity investments
(8,013,349)
(6,199,022)
(3,827,768)
Equity securities
(147,836)
(16,583)
(9,071)
Subsidiary
(48,447)
Real estate, property and equipment
(29,699)
(53,639)
(90,111)
Maturities and redemptions of fixed maturity
investments
1,833,418
1,807,482
902,820
Sales of:
4,745,708
3,566,812
2,468,492
59,987
23,669
15,814
461,386
40,395
16,649
22,417
71,002
Cash and short-term investments of acquired
(former) subsidiaries, net
(112,666)
4,684
(134,237)
Collection of receivable from investee
55,000
Decrease (increase) in other investments
578
27,220
(7,827
(1,130,824
(865,407
(570,491
Financing Activities:
Fixed annuity receipts
788,174
874,470
616,628
Annuity surrenders, benefits and withdrawals
(572,013)
(549,919)
(622,474)
Net transfers from (to) variable annuity assets
966
20,807
(363)
Additional long-term borrowings
337,208
224,560
242,613
Reductions of long-term debt
(454,775)
(159,926)
(143,840)
Issuances of Common Stock
1,516
1,608
2,582
Issuances of trust preferred securities
33,943
Repurchases of trust preferred securities
(11,322)
(75,000)
Subsidiary's issuance of stock in rights offering
10,632
Cash dividends paid on Common Stock
(31,338)
(27,834)
(66,068)
782
(3,739
(601
103,773
380,027
(46,523
Net Increase (Decrease) in Cash and
Short-term Investments
(277,551)
326,930
105,503
Cash and short-term investments at beginning of
period
871,103
544,173
438,670
Cash and short-term investments at end of period
$ 544,173
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
_________________________________________________________________________________
INDEX TO NOTES
A.
Accounting Policies
J.
B.
Acquisitions and Sales of Subsidiaries
K.
and Investees
L.
Discontinued Operation
C.
Segments of Operations
M.
Equity in Earnings (Losses) of
D.
Investees
E.
Assets and Liabilities of Managed
N.
Commitments and Contingencies
Investment Entity
O.
Quarterly Operating Results
F.
Goodwill and Other Intangibles
P.
Insurance
G.
Q.
Additional Information
H.
R.
Subsequent Event
I.
Basis of Presentation
The preparation of the financial statements in conformity with generally accepted accounting principles requires management to make estimates and assumptions that affect the amounts reported in the financial statements and accompanying notes. Changes in circumstances could cause actual results to differ materially from those estimates.
Subsidiary Realignment
NOTES TO CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS - CONTINUED
the borrowers. Variations from anticipated prepayments will affect the life and yield of these securities.
Gains or losses on securities are determined on the specific identification basis. When a decline in the value of a specific investment is considered to be other than temporary, a provision for impairment is charged to earnings (included in realized gains) and the cost basis of that investment is reduced.
Derivatives
In December 2003, Great American Financial Resources, Inc. ("GAFRI"), an 82%-owned subsidiary of AFG, entered into an interest rate swap, effectively converting the interest rate on $40 million of its 6-7/8% fixed rate Senior Notes to a floating rate based on LIBOR. The swap realigns GAFRI's mix of floating and fixed rate debt and has been designated a fair value hedge. The terms of the swap match those of the debt; therefore, the swap is considered to be (and is accounted for as) a 100% effective hedge. Both the swap and the hedged debt are adjusted for changes in fair value by offsetting amounts. Accordingly, since the swap is included with long-term debt in the Balance Sheet, the only effect on AFG's financial statements is that the interest expense on the hedged debt is recorded based on the variable rate.
Managed Investment Entity
F-7
GAFRI's subsidiaries cede life insurance policies to a third party on a funds withheld basis where GAFRI retains the assets (securities) associated with the reinsurance contracts. Interest is credited to the reinsurer based on the actual investment performance (including realized gains and losses) of the retained assets. Effective October 1, 2003, GAFRI implemented SFAS No. 133 Implementation Issue B36 ("B36"). Under B36, these reinsurance contracts are considered to contain embedded derivatives (that must be marked to market) because the yield on the payables is based on specific blocks of the ceding companies' assets, rather than the overall creditworthiness of the ceding company. GAFRI determined that changes in the fair value of the underlying portfolios of fixed maturity securities is an appropriate measure of the value of the embedded derivative. As permitted under B36, GAFRI reclassified the securities related to these transactions from "available for sale" to "trading". The $16.1&n bsp;million cumulative effect of marking to market the derivatives embedded in the payables at October 1, 2003, was offset by the initial effect of transferring the related securities from available for sale to trading. Beginning in the fourth quarter of 2003, the mark to market on the embedded derivatives offsets the investment income recorded on the mark to market of the related trading portfolios.
Deferred Policy Acquisition Costs ("DPAC")
DPAC related to annuities and universal life insurance products is deferred to the extent deemed recoverable and amortized, with interest, in relation to the present value of expected gross profits on the policies. To the extent that realized gains and losses result in adjustments to the amortization of DPAC related to annuities, such adjustments are reflected as components of realized gains. DPAC related to annuities is also adjusted, net of tax, for the change in amortization that would have been recorded if the unrealized gains (losses) from securities had actually been realized. This adjustment is included in "Unrealized gains (losses) on marketable securities, net" in the shareholders' equity section of the Balance Sheet.
DPAC related to traditional life and health insurance is amortized over the expected premium paying period of the related policies, in proportion to the ratio of annual premium revenues to total anticipated premium revenues.
F-8
Unpaid Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses The net liabilities stated for unpaid claims and for expenses of investigation and adjustment of unpaid claims are based upon (a) the accumulation of case estimates for losses reported prior to the close of the accounting period on direct business written; (b) estimates received from ceding reinsurers and insurance pools and associations; (c) estimates of unreported losses based on past experience; (d) estimates based on experience of expenses for investigating and adjusting claims and (e) the current state of the law and coverage litigation. Establishing reserves for asbestos and environmental claims involves considerably more judgment than other types of claims due to, among other things, inconsistent court decisions, an increase in bankruptcy filings as a result of asbestos-related liabilities, novel theories of coverage, and judicial interpretations that often expand theori es of recovery and broaden the scope of coverage.
Loss reserve liabilities are subject to the impact of changes in claim amounts and frequency and other factors. Changes in estimates of the liabilities for losses and loss adjustment expenses are reflected in the Statement of Operations in the period in which determined. In spite of the variability inherent in such estimates, management believes that the liabilities for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses are adequate.
Annuity Benefits Accumulated
Life, Accident and Health Reserves
Variable Annuity Assets and Liabilities
Premium Recognition
Policyholder Dividends
F-9
Payable to Subsidiary Trusts (Issuers of Preferred Securities) Under FIN 46, AFG is required to deconsolidate three wholly-owned subsidiary trusts because they are "variable interest entities" in which AFG is not considered to be the primary beneficiary. These subsidiary trusts were formed to issue preferred securities and, in turn, purchase a like amount of subordinated debt from their parent company which provides interest and principal payments to fund the respective trust obligations. Accordingly, the subordinated debt due to the trusts is shown as a liability in the Balance Sheet beginning December 31, 2003, and the related interest expense will be shown in the Statement of Operations as "interest on subsidiary trust obligations" beginning in the first quarter of 2004. Prior to these dates, these items were included in the Balance Sheet as minority interest and in the Statement of Operations as minority interest expense. Implementati on of FIN 46 with respect to the preferred securities had no effect on earnings.
Deferred income taxes are calculated using the liability method. Under this method, deferred income tax assets and liabilities are determined based on differences between financial reporting and tax bases and are measured using enacted tax rates. Deferred tax assets are recognized if it is more likely than not that a benefit will be realized.
Stock-Based Compensation
The following table illustrates the effect on net earnings (in thousands) and earnings per share had compensation cost been recognized and determined based on the "fair values" at grant dates consistent with the method prescribed by SFAS No. 123. See Note J "Shareholders' Equity" for further information on stock options.
F-10
For SFAS No. 123 purposes, the "fair value" of $5.62 per option granted in 2003, $8.52 in 2002 and $8.18 in 2001 was calculated using the Black-Scholes option pricing model and the following assumptions: dividend yield of 2%; expected volatility of 30% for 2003 and 2002 and 27% for 2001; risk-free interest rate of 3.6% for 2003, 4.9% for 2002 and 5.3% for 2001; and expected option life of 7.4 years. There is no single reliable method to determine the actual value of options at grant date. Accordingly, actual value of the option grants may be higher or lower than the SFAS No. 123 "fair value".
Net earnings (loss), as reported
$84,640
($14,840)
Pro forma stock option expense, net of tax
(6,362
(5,639
(5,436
Adjusted net earnings (loss)
$287,453
$79,001
($20,276)
Earnings per share (as reported):
($0.22)
Earnings per share (adjusted):
$4.05
$1.15
($0.30)
$4.04
$1.14
Benefit Plans
AFG and many of its subsidiaries provide health care and life insurance benefits to eligible retirees. AFG also provides postemployment benefits to former or inactive employees (primarily those on disability) who were not deemed retired under other company plans. The projected future cost of providing these benefits is expensed over the period the employees earn such benefits.
Discontinued Operations
Earnings Per Share
Statement of Cash Flows
F-11
benefits and withdrawals are also reflected as financing activities. All other activities are considered "operating". Short-term investments having original maturities of three months or less when purchased are considered to be cash equivalents for purposes of the financial statements.
Fidelity Excess and Surplus Insurance Company
Direct automobile insurance business
New Jersey private passenger automobile insurance business
Manhattan National Life Insurance
Seven Hills Insurance Company
Japanese division
F-12
Prior to the sale of its remaining interest in Infinity in the fourth quarter of 2003, AFG separated its property and casualty insurance segment into two components or sub-segments, the Specialty group and the Personal group. The Personal group wrote nonstandard and preferred/standard private passenger auto and other personal insurance coverage. Since AFG has disposed of substantially all of its Personal group business, it has revised its reporting of the Specialty sub-segment into the following components: (i) Property and Transportation which includes inland and ocean marine, agricultural-related business and commercial automobile, (ii) Specialty Casualty which includes executive and professional liability, umbrella and excess liability and excess and surplus, (iii) Specialty Financial which includes fidelity and surety bonds and collateral protection and (iv) California Workers' Compensation. AFG's reportable segments and their components were determined based primarily upon similar economic characteristics, products and services.
AFG's annuity, life and health business markets primarily retirement products as well as life and supplemental health insurance. AFG's businesses operate throughout the United States. In 2003, 2002, and 2001, AFG derived just over 2% of its revenues from the sale of life and supplemental health products in Puerto Rico and just over 1% of its revenues from the sale of property and casualty insurance in Mexico, Canada and Europe.
F-13
The following tables (in thousands) show AFG's assets, revenues and operating profit (loss) by significant business segment and sub-segment. Operating profit (loss) represents total revenues less operating expenses.
Assets
Property and casualty insurance (a)
$ 9,230,244
$ 9,960,769
$ 8,796,909
Annuities and life
10,177,839
9,349,280
8,370,904
789,175
194,777
233,868
$17,401,681
Revenues
Premiums earned:
$ 480,597
$ 419,528
$ 484,941
656,725
572,051
486,508
Specialty financial
262,280
229,415
169,352
California workers' compensation
262,691
213,879
236,533
83,295
62,215
32,163
163,610
905,246
1,182,651
Other lines
266
1,790
1,909,206
2,402,600
2,593,938
252,860
328,593
341,926
Realized gains (losses)
75,193
(52,862)
3,906
166,071
130,523
108,207
2,403,330
2,808,854
3,047,977
Annuities, life and health (c)
931,018
897,365
855,733
25,295
38,656
15,551
$ 3,359,643
$ 3,744,875
$ 3,919,261
Operating Profit (Loss)
Underwriting:
$ 58,612
$ 41,336
$ 16,175
11,560
(37,584)
(56,135)
(21,866)
(3,127)
33,769
20,919
7,647
(11,253)
(162)
16,272
(5,830)
(4,795)
1,339
(93,254)
Other lines (d)
(42,400
(49,840
(77,617
21,868
(23,957)
(194,145)
Investment and other income (e)
255,891
206,861
293,611
277,759
182,904
99,466
Annuities, life and health
87,335
61,553
100,864
Other (f)
(64,088
(68,634
(114,176
$ 301,006
$ 175,823
$ 86,154
(a) Not allocable to sub-segments.
(b) Revenues include sales of products and services as well as other income earned by
the respective segments.
(c) Investment income comprises approximately three-fifths of these revenues. Includes
impairment charges of $36.7 million, $87.5 million and $51.9 million in 2003,
2002 and 2001, respectively.
(d) Represents development of lines in "run-off" and includes a pretax charge of
$43.8 million in 2003 for an arbitration decision relating to a 1995 property claim
from a discontinued business; AFG has ceased underwriting new business in these
operations. Includes special charges of $30 million in 2002 related to the
A.P. Green settlement and $69 million in 2001 related to asbestos and other
environmental matters ("A&E").
(e) Includes a 2003 pretax charge of $35.5 million related to the settlement of
litigation.
(f) Includes holding company expenses.
F-14
Gross Unrealized
United States Government
and government agencies
and authorities
$ 1,392.6
$ 1,411.8
$ 24.4
($ 5.2)
$ 1,353.6
$ 1,402.0
$ 49.5
($ 1.1)
States, municipalities and
political subdivisions
943.7
970.0
584.4
615.2
36.4
(5.6)
Foreign government
146.3
150.0
4.2
(0.5)
163.3
169.9
6.6
Public utilities
1,011.4
1,068.8
61.7
(4.3)
1,038.9
1,058.3
43.4
(24.0)
3,387.5
3,388.1
3,106.6
3,232.1
134.6
(9.1)
All other corporate
4,780.5
5,043.0
277.3
(14.8)
5,241.8
5,462.7
312.0
(91.1)
Redeemable preferred stocks
62.2
70.3
8.3
(0.2
61.1
66.7
(2.2
$11,724.2
$12,102.0
$450.1
($72.3)
$11,549.7
$12,006.9
$590.3
($133.1)
Other stocks
$ 258.5
$ 454.9
$197.5
$ 174.6
$ 300.4
$130.5
($ 4.7)
The following table shows gross unrealized losses on fixed maturities and other stocks by investment category and length of time that individual securities have been in a continuous unrealized loss position at December 31, 2003.
Twelve Months or Less
More Than Twelve Month
Market as
Loss
$ 316.4
($ 0.0)
$ 0.1
94%
(0.7)
94.6
99%
(1.5)
31.7
95%
42.6
-%
(2.9)
80.7
97%
(1.4)
26.6
(44.1)
2,039.8
(1.0)
10.9
(6.6)
390.7
(8.2)
117.6
10.5
($60.2)
$2,975.3
($12.1)
$186.9
($ 0.9)
$ 36.9
($ 0.2)
$ 3.5
The table below sets forth the scheduled maturities of fixed maturities based on market value as of December 31, 2003. Asset-backed securities and other securities with sinking funds are reported at average maturity. Data based on amortized cost is generally the same. Actual maturities may differ from contractual maturities because certain securities may be called or prepaid by the issuers. Mortgage-backed securities had an average life of approximately six years at December 31, 2003.
2%
72
Certain risks are inherent in connection with fixed maturity securities, including loss upon default, price volatility in reaction to changes in interest rates, and general market factors and risks associated with reinvestment of proceeds due to prepayments or redemptions in a period of declining interest rates.
The only investment (other than U.S. Treasury Notes) which exceeds 10% of Shareholders' Equity is an equity investment in Provident Financial Group, Inc., having a market value of $227 million and $189 million at December 31, 2003 and 2002, respectively. See Note R - "Subsequent Event".
F-15
Realized gains (losses) and changes in unrealized appreciation (depreciation) on fixed maturity and equity security investments are summarized as follows (in thousands):
Fixed
Equity
Tax
Maturities
Effects
Realized - Continuing operations
$ 51,647
$ 7,244
($ 20,514)
$ 38,377
Realized - Discontinued operations
1,600
(564)
1,047
Change in Unrealized
(79,400)
70,600
3,000
(5,800)
(61,614)
(17,354)
27,594
(51,374)
389
(500)
(72)
301,900
(103,800)
198,000
(15,990)
(8,786)
8,674
(16,102)
675
(39)
(223)
413
139,000
(84,500)
(19,200)
35,300
Gross gains and losses on available-for-sale fixed maturity investment transactions included in the Statement of Cash Flows consisted of the following (in millions):
Gross Gains
$152.2
$155.3
$108.9
Gross Losses
($ 99.0)
($216.5)
($124.2)
Upon formation in 1999, the CDO issued securities in various senior and subordinate classes and the proceeds were invested in primarily floating rate, secured bank loans, and to a lesser extent, high yield bonds, all of which serve as collateral for the securities issued by the CDO. None of the collateral was purchased from AFG. Income from the CDO's investments is used to service its debt and pay other operating expenses including management fees to AFG. AFG's investment in this CDO is subordinate to the senior classes (approximately 92% of the total securities) issued by the CDO. To the extent there are defaults and unrecoverable losses on the underlying collateral resulting in reduced cash flows, AFG's class would bear losses first.
The assets (substantially all cash and investments carried at market as "trading securities") of this managed investment entity are separately disclosed in the Consolidated Balance Sheet because they are not available for use to satisfy AFG obligations. Likewise, the CDO liabilities (substantially all debt) are separately disclosed because they represent claims against only the CDO's assets and not against AFG's other assets. Accordingly, AFG's exposure to loss on this investment is limited to its investment (approximately $11.5 million at December 31, 2003).
Beginning in 2004, the operating results of the CDO will be included in AFG's Consolidated Statement of Earnings. However, due to the non-recourse nature of the instruments issued by the CDO, any excess losses included in AFG's results that are not absorbed by AFG's investment over the life of the CDO would ultimately reverse when the CDO is liquidated. Accordingly, while implementation of FIN 46 will impact the timing of income recognition, it will not impact the overall amount of income recognized over the life of this investment.
F-16
AFG is the investment manager and has an investment of $6.3 million in another CDO (included in fixed maturities) at December 31, 2003, which is not required to be consolidated. This CDO was formed in 2000 and had approximately $475 million in investments at December 31, 2003.
If the goodwill amortization of $13.7 million ($.20 per share, basic and diluted) in 2001 had not been expensed, net loss for the period would have been $1.2 million ($.02 per share).
Changes in the carrying value of goodwill during 2002 and 2003, by reporting segment, are presented in the following table (in thousands):
Property and Casualty
and Life
Balance December 31, 2001
$150,999
$117,391
$40,404
$308,794
Goodwill from acquisitions
1,461
Transitional impairment charge
(39,600)
(21,184)
(60,784)
(788
Balance December 31, 2002
150,211
77,791
20,681
Goodwill related to businesses sold
(77,791)
(645)
(78,436)
(1,917
Balance December 31, 2003
$150,211
$18,119
$168,330
Included in deferred acquisition costs in AFG's Balance Sheet are $57.9 million and $66.8 million at December 31, 2003 and 2002, respectively, representing the present value of future profits ("PVFP") related to acquisitions by AFG's annuity and life business. The PVFP amounts are net of $65.8 million and $57.3 million of accumulated amortization. Amortization of the PVFP was $8.5 million in 2003, $11.8 million in 2002 and $9.2 million in 2001. During each of the next five years, the PVFP is expected to decrease at a rate of approximately 14% of the balance at the beginning of each respective year.
F-17
Holding Companies:
AFG 7-1/8% Senior Debentures due April 2009,
less discount of $1,349 and $1,552
(imputed rate - 7.2%)
$301,501
$301,298
AFG 7-1/8% Senior Debentures due December 2007
75,100
79,600
AFG Senior Convertible Debentures due June 2033
(imputed rate - 4.0%)
189,857
Notes payable under bank line
248,000
American Premier Underwriters, Inc. ("APU")
10-7/8% Subordinated Notes due May 2011,
including premium of $712 and $777
(imputed rate - 9.6%)
11,433
11,498
8,160
8,014
$586,051
$648,410
Subsidiaries:
GAFRI 6-7/8% Senior Notes due June 2008
$100,000
GAFRI 7-1/2% Senior Debentures due November 2033
112,500
GAFRI notes payable under bank line
148,600
Notes payable secured by real estate
27,063
35,610
11,248
12,561
$250,811
$296,771
At December 31, 2003, sinking fund and other scheduled principal payments on debt for the subsequent five years were as follows (in millions):
Holding
Companies
11.2
19.5
80.3
80.4
100.1
In June 2003, AFG issued Senior Convertible Notes due in 2033 at an issue price of 37.153% of the principal amount due at maturity. AFG received $189.9 million before issue costs of $4.5 million. Interest is payable semiannually at a rate of 4% of issue price per year through June 2008, after which, interest at 4% annually will be accrued and added to the carrying value of the Notes. In addition, contingent cash interest will be paid if the average market price of a Note for an applicable five-day trading period equals 120% or more of the accreted value. The Notes are redeemable at AFG's option at any time on or after June 2, 2008, at prices ranging from $371.53 per Note to $1,000 per Note at maturity. Holders may require AFG to purchase all or a portion of their Notes on five year anniversaries beginning in 2008, at the accreted value. Generally, holders may convert each Note into 11.5016 shares of AFG Common Stock (i) if the average market price of AFG Common Stock to be received up on conversion exceeds 120% of the accreted value, (ii) if the credit rating of the Notes is significantly lowered, or (iii) if AFG calls the notes for redemption.
In November 2003, GAFRI received approximately $109 million from the sale of $112.5 million principal amount of 7-1/2% senior debentures due 2033.
In December 2003, GAFRI entered into an interest rate swap, effectively converting $40 million of its 6-7/8% fixed-rate Senior Notes to a floating rate of 3-month LIBOR plus 2.906% (about 4.1% at December 31, 2003).
F-18
In the first quarter of 2004, AFG issued $115 million principal amount of 7-1/8% senior debentures due 2034 and GAFRI issued $86.3 million principal amount of7-1/4% senior debentures due 2034. Proceeds from both offerings were used to redeem at face value a portion of the outstanding trust preferred securities.
AFG may borrow up to $280 million under its credit agreement. The line consists of two facilities: a 364-day revolving facility, extendable annually, for one-third of the total line and a three-year revolving facility for the remaining two-thirds with a final maturity in November 2005. Amounts borrowed bear interest at rates ranging from 1.25% to 2.25% over LIBOR based on AFG's credit rating. In addition, GAFRI has an unsecured credit agreement under which it can borrow up to $155 million at floating rates based on prime or Eurodollar rates through December 2004.
Cash interest payments of $48 million, $47 million and $51 million were made on long-term debt in 2003, 2002 and 2001, respectively. Interest expense in the Statement of Operations includes interest credited on funds held by AFG's insurance subsidiaries under reinsurance contracts and other similar agreements as follows: 2003 - $7.8 million; 2002 - $11.7 million; and 2001 - $7.1 million.
In accordance with FIN 46, variable interest entities that issued preferred securities subsequent to January 31, 2003, are not consolidated for reporting purposes. Beginning December 31, 2003, previously consolidated subsidiary trusts were deconsolidated for reporting purposes under FIN 46. Accordingly, the subordinated debt due the trusts is shown as a liability in AFG's Balance Sheet instead of the preferred securities which were previously reported as minority interest. The preferred securities supported by the payable to subsidiary trusts consisted of the following at December 31, 2003 (in thousands):
Date of
Optional
Issuance
Issue (Maturity Date)
Outstanding
Redemption Dates
October 1996
AFG 9-1/8% TOPrS (2026)
$95,459
Currently redeemable
November 1996
GAFRI 9-1/4% TOPrS (2026)
65,013
March 1997
GAFRI 8-7/8% Pfd (2027)
70,000
On or after 3/1/2007
May 2003
GAFRI 7.35% Pfd (2033)
20,000
On or after 5/15/2008
Variable Rate Pfd (2033)
15,000
On or after 5/23/2008
In May 2003, a GAFRI subsidiary and a 68%-owned subsidiary of GAI issued an aggregate of $35 million in trust preferred securities maturing in 2033.
The AFG 9-1/8% trust preferred securities and the GAFRI 9-1/4% trust preferred securities were redeemed at face value in the first quarter of 2004.
Interest of noncontrolling shareholders
in subsidiaries' common stock
$180,937
$157,207
Managed investment entity
6,622
Preferred securities issued by
subsidiary trusts (a)
241,663
AFC preferred stock (b)
72,154
$187,559
$471,024
(a) See Note H - "Payable to Subsidiary Trusts."
(b) Exchanged for 3.3 million shares of AFG Common Stock in
November 2003.
F-19
Minority Interest Expense
in earnings of subsidiaries
$16,470
$ 6,096
$11,366
Accrued distributions by consolidated
subsidiaries on preferred securities:
Trust issued securities, net of tax
14,151
14,281
16,932
AFC preferred stock
5,772
$36,393
$26,149
$34,070
In conjunction with the AFG/AFC merger, AFG issued 3.3 million shares of Common Stock in exchange for all of the outstanding shares of AFC Series J preferred stock in November 2003.
The Senior Convertible Notes issued in June 2003 could be converted under certain conditions into 5.9 million shares of AFG Common Stock.
Stock Options
Average
Exercise
Price
Outstanding at beginning of year
6,982,562
$27.58
6,089,131
$27.91
6,452,496
$27.86
Granted
956,250
$18.54
1,056,750
$25.78
20,500
$26.22
Exercised
(35,000)
$21.12
(28,837)
$20.80
(65,335)
$21.39
Forfeited
(188,156
$25.02
(134,482
$29.41
(318,530
$28.16
Outstanding at end of year
Options exercisable at year-end
5,404,330
$28.51
4,560,210
$29.01
3,818,305
$29.23
Options available for grant at
year-end
1,942,881
2,710,975
3,633,243
F-20
The following table summarizes information about stock options outstanding at December 31, 2003:
Options Outstanding
Options Exercisable
Range of
Remaining
Exercise Prices
Life
$18.45 - $20.00
2,626,891
$19.34
7.4 years
1,147,441
$19.79
$20.01 - $25.00
1,199,225
$23.94
1.5 "
1,195,225
$23.95
$25.01 - $30.00
1,235,614
$25.93
7.2 "
536,414
$26.09
$30.01 - $35.00
914,750
$30.36
2.1 "
912,450
$30.35
$35.01 - $40.00
1,462,676
$36.81
4.3 "
1,336,300
$36.91
$40.01 - $45.19
276,500
$42.40
4.2 "
No compensation cost has been recognized for stock option grants. For information about the SFAS #123 "fair value" of options granted, see Note A - "Accounting Policies - Stock-based Compensation."
Unrealized Gain (Loss) on Marketable Securities, Net
Minority
Pretax
Interest
Unrealized holding gains on
securities arising during the period
$ 86.5
($30.6)
$ 56.9
Adoption of FIN 46
(2.1)
0.8
(1.2)
Transfer to Trading Securities
(16.1)
(8.6)
Realized gains included in net income and
unrealized gains of subsidiaries sold
(104.5
36.7
(0.6
(68.4
Change in unrealized gain on marketable
securities, net
($ 36.2)
$ 12.5
$ 2.4
($ 21.3)
$195.7
($66.6)
($11.8)
$117.3
Realized losses included in net income
79.1
(27.7
(4.1
47.3
$274.8
($94.3)
($15.9)
$164.6
Unrealized holding gains (losses) on
$ 0.8
($ 0.3)
($ 4.1)
($ 3.6)
Adoption of EITF 99-20
16.9
(6.0)
(0.9)
Realized losses included in net income and
unrealized gains of subsidiary sold
23.6
(8.3)
(3.0
12.3
$ 41.3
($14.6)
($ 8.0)
$ 18.7
F-21
Earnings (loss) before income taxes:
Operating
$301,006
$175,823
$86,154
Minority interest expense
(44,013)
(33,839)
(43,187)
Equity in net earnings (losses) of investees
13,975
(13,830)
(25,462)
(51,795)
2,196
(30,256)
Accounting changes
(57,716
(15,948
$225,473
$ 72,634
($28,699)
Income taxes at statutory rate
$ 78,916
$ 25,422
($10,045)
Effect of:
Adjustment to prior year taxes
(143,500)
(33,192)
(6,317)
7,764
3,058
5,672
Tax exempt interest
(4,970)
(1,367)
(1,233)
Effect of foreign operations
(4,416)
(4,212)
(3,421)
Dividends received deduction
(2,539)
(2,313)
(2,317)
Amortization and writeoff of intangibles
907
3,711
4,526
Nondeductible meals, etc.
770
992
1,381
State income taxes
460
153
781
Losses utilized
(3,300)
(1,245)
Tax credits
(1,243)
(1,734
(958
(398
Total Provision (Credit)
(68,342)
(12,006)
(13,859)
Amounts applicable to:
7,620
7,690
9,117
(4,891)
4,840
8,912
18,159
(763)
10,393
17,356
5,908
Provision (credit) for income taxes as shown
on the Statement of Operations
($ 47,454)
$ 17,117
$20,471
The AFG/AFC merger in November 2003 resulted in the elimination of $170 million in deferred tax liabilities associated with AFC's holding of AFG stock. Of this amount, $136 million had previously been recorded through charges to earnings in conjunction with AFC's accounting for AFG's predecessor under the equity method from 1980 through March 1995. The remaining $34 million had previously been recorded through charges to capital surplus for the tax effect of AFG dividends paid to AFC from April 1995 through the end of 2002, during which time AFG and AFC were in separate tax groups.
F-22
Total earnings before income taxes include income subject to tax in foreign jurisdictions of $21.7 million in 2003, $17.8 million in 2002 and $8.3 million in 2001.
The total income tax provision (credit) consists of (in thousands):
Current taxes:
Federal
$ 43,028
$17,535
$44,715
Foreign
3,115
2,293
State
707
1,201
Deferred taxes:
(116,338)
(33,762)
(59,042)
1,146
1,692
(733
($ 68,342)
($12,006)
($13,859)
For income tax purposes, AFG and certain members of its consolidated tax group had the following carryforwards available at December 31, 2003 (in millions):
Expiring
{
2005 - 2009
$ 4
Operating Loss {
2010 - 2019
51
2020 - 2022
Capital Loss
Other - Tax Credits
Deferred income tax assets and liabilities reflect temporary differences between the carrying amounts of assets and liabilities recognized for financial reporting purposes and the amounts recognized for tax purposes. The significant components of deferred tax assets and liabilities included in the Balance Sheet at December 31, were as follows (in millions):
Deferred tax assets:
Net operating loss carryforwards
$ 56.0
$ 70.4
Capital loss carryforwards
86.0
Insurance claims and reserves
263.2
278.6
518.0
457.8
Valuation allowance for deferred
tax assets
(50.0
(34.9
468.0
422.9
Deferred tax liabilities:
(222.2)
(242.6)
Investment securities
(93.4
(188.3
(315.6
(430.9
Net deferred tax asset (liability)
$152.4
The gross deferred tax asset has been reduced by a valuation allowance based on an analysis of the likelihood of realization. Factors considered in assessing the need for a valuation allowance include: (i) recent tax returns, which show neither a history of large amounts of taxable income nor cumulative losses in recent years, (ii) opportunities to generate taxable income from sales of appreciated assets, and (iii) the likelihood of generating larger amounts of taxable income in the future. The likelihood of realizing this asset will be reviewed periodically; any adjustments required to the valuation allowance will be made in the period in which the developments on which they are based become known.
Cash payments for income taxes, net of refunds, were $50.2 million, $30.0 million and $6.6 million for 2003, 2002 and 2001, respectively.
F-23
Transport's results are reflected as discontinued for all periods presented in the Statement of Operations; Balance Sheet amounts have not been reclassified. The carrying amount of the major classes of Transport's assets and liabilities and a summary of the discontinued operations follow (in millions):
Investment in fixed-maturity securities
$ 70.8
$ 74.5
Amounts due from reinsurers and prepaid
59.3
62.8
Liabilities:
$111.8
$117.4
Operations:
Revenue
$ 6.1
$ 4.7
$ 4.4
Pretax earnings (loss)
3.2
(30.3)
(10.4
Earnings (loss) from discontinued operations
AFG's provision for impairment, net of tax
(35.7
($ 33.6)
$ 1.4
($ 19.9)
Equity in net earnings (losses) of investees for 2002 and 2001 represents AFG's share of the losses from two start-up manufacturing businesses that were formerly subsidiaries. One of these businesses was sold in December 2002; equity in the net loss of the remaining business was $3.1 million in 2003.
At December 31, 2003, American Premier had liabilities for environmental and personal injury claims aggregating $74.9 million. The environmental claims consist of a number of proceedings and claims seeking to impose responsibility for hazardous waste remediation costs related to certain sites formerly owned or operated by the railroad and manufacturing operations. Remediation costs are difficult to estimate for a number of reasons, including the number and financial resources of other potentially responsible parties, the range of costs for remediation alternatives, changing technology and the time period over which these matters develop. The personal injury claims include pending and expected claims, primarily by former employees of PCTC, for injury or disease allegedly caused by exposure to excessive noise, asbestos or other substances in the workplace. In December 2001, American Premier recorded a $12.1 million charge to increase its
F-24
environmental reserves due to an increase in expected ultimate claim costs. At December 31, 2003, American Premier had $8.8 million of offsetting recovery assets (included in other assets) for such environmental and personal injury claims based upon estimates of probable recoveries from insurance carriers.
AFG has accrued approximately $6.2 million at December 31, 2003, for environmental costs and certain other matters associated with the sales of former operations.
AFG's insurance subsidiaries continue to receive claims related to environmental exposures, asbestos and other mass tort claims. Establishing reserves for these claims is subject to uncertainties that are significantly greater than those presented by other types of claims. The liability for asbestos and environmental reserves at December 31, 2003 and 2002, respectively, was $515 million and $572 million; related recoverables from reinsurers (net of allowances for doubtful accounts) at those dates were $92 million and $105 million, respectively. These amounts include the reserves ($70 million) and reinsurance recoverables ($18 million) of Transport Insurance Company, which AFG expects to sell in 2004.
While management believes AFG has recorded adequate reserves for the items discussed in this note, the outcome is uncertain and could result in liabilities exceeding amounts AFG has currently recorded. Additional amounts could have a material adverse effect on AFG's future results of operations and financial condition.
F-25
The following are quarterly results of consolidated operations for the two years ended December 31, 2003 (in millions, except per share amounts).
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Quarter
Year
$839.9
$776.6
$848.3
$894.8
$3,359.6
Earnings (loss) from:
24.8
29.9
225.2
321.1
(34.9)
Cumulative effect of accounting change
30.5
41.6
196.6
293.8
Basic earnings (loss) per common share:
$.36
$.43
$.59
$3.10
.01
(.49)
$.44
$.60
$2.70
Diluted earnings (loss) per common share:
$.58
$3.08
$2.68
69.3
69.6
69.7
71.2
69.9
69.4
70.0
$924.4
$917.4
$941.9
$961.2
$3,744.9
42.1
11.5
26.2
43.8
123.6
(.3)
.7
12.1
26.9
44.2
84.6
Basic earnings per common share:
$.61
$.17
$.38
$.63
Net earnings available to Common Shares
$.02
$.18
$.39
$.64
Diluted earnings per common share:
$.16
68.6
68.7
68.9
69.0
68.8
69.2
Quarterly earnings per share do not add to year-to-date amounts due to changes in shares outstanding.
Results for 2003 include (i) a $5.5 million first quarter tax benefit related to AFG's investment in Infinity, (ii) a $43.8 million second quarter charge for an arbitration decision relating to a 1995 property claim, (iii) a $12.5 million second quarter charge related to the narrowing of spreads on GAFRI's fixed annuities, (iv) a $35.5 million third quarter charge related to a litigation settlement, (v) a fourth quarter tax benefit of $136 million related to the
F-26
elimination of deferred taxes in connection with the AFG/AFC merger, and (vi) a fourth quarter $55 million charge related to the planned sale of Transport Insurance Company (included in discontinued operations).
Results for 2002 include a $16 million tax benefit in the first quarter and a $15 million tax benefit in the fourth quarter resulting from the reduction of previously accrued amounts due to the resolution of certain tax matters. Fourth quarter 2002 results also include a $30 million charge related to the settlement of asbestos-related litigation.
AFG has realized gains (losses) on sales of subsidiaries in recent years (see Note B). Realized gains (losses) on securities, affiliates and other investments amounted to (in millions):
($37.7)
$25.3
$21.8
$69.3
$78.7
(17.4)
(47.7)
(24.9)
9.5
(80.5)
Insurance Reserves
The following table provides an analysis of changes in the liability for losses and loss adjustment expenses, net of reinsurance (and grossed up), over the past three years on a GAAP basis (in millions). Adverse development recorded in 2003, 2002 and 2001 in prior year reserves related primarily to charges for asbestos and certain Specialty lines in run-off.
Balance at beginning of period
Provision for losses and LAE occurring
in the current year
1,203
1,664
1,950
Net increase (decrease) in provision for
claims of prior years
167
171
163
Total losses and LAE incurred (*)
1,370
1,835
2,113
Payments for losses and LAE of:
Current year
(389)
(594)
(831)
Prior years
(849
(1,094
(1,036
Total payments
(1,238)
(1,688)
(1,867)
Reserves of businesses sold
(682)
(120)
Reclass to unearned premiums
(65
Balance at end of period
Add back reinsurance recoverables, net
of allowance
Gross unpaid losses and LAE included
in the Balance Sheet
(*) Before amortization of deferred gains on retroactive reinsurance of
$15 million in 2003, $20 million in 2002 and $33 million in 2001.
Includes losses of Transport Insurance Company which have been reclassed
to discontinued operations: 2003 - $2 million; 2002 - $2 million; and
2001 - $33 million.
F-27
Net Investment Income
Insurance group investment income:
Fixed maturities
$753.6
$849.7
$838.8
13.1
767.1
859.9
848.0
Insurance group investment expenses (*)
(39.7
(40.3
(36.7
$727.4
$819.6
$811.3
(*) Included primarily in "Other operating and general expenses" in the
Statement of Operations.
Statutory Information
Policyholders'
Property and casualty companies
$94
$116
$34
$1,814
$1,742
Life insurance companies
(24)
(25)
549
445
Direct premiums written
$3,530
$4,027
$3,573
Reinsurance assumed
(1,618
(1,693
(1,114
Direct premiums earned
$3,455
$3,798
91
(1,625
(1,486
(891
Reinsurance recoveries
$1,124
$ 773
(*) Net of $29.7 million unearned premium transfer related to the
sale of the Japanese division.
F-28
Future minimum rentals, related principally to office space, required under operating leases having initial or remaining noncancelable lease terms in excess of one year at December 31, 2003, were as follows: 2004 - $36 million; 2005 - $25 million; 2006 - $22 million; 2007 - $13 million; 2008 - $8 million and $13 million thereafter. In addition, AFG has 99-year land leases (approximately 93 years remaining) at one of its real estate properties. Minimum lease payments under these leases are expected to total approximately $180,000 in 2004 and are adjusted annually for inflation.
Other operating and general expenses included charges for possible losses on agents' balances, other receivables and other assets in the following amounts: 2003 - $1.3 million; 2002 - $2.7 million; and 2001 - $3.5 million. Losses and loss adjustment expenses included charges for possible losses on reinsurance recoverables of $4.7 million in 2003 and $6.6 million in 2002. The aggregate allowance for all such losses amounted to approximately $84 million and $89 million at December 31, 2003 and 2002, respectively.
Unadjusted
Adjusted
Asset
Effect of
(Liability)
SFAS 115
Fixed maturities - available-for-sale
$377.8
258.5
196.4
454.9
909.9
(58.7)
851.2
(6,965.7)
(8.9
(6,974.6)
Pretax unrealized
506.6
Deferred taxes
327.4
(175.0)
152.4
(158.6)
(29.0
(187.6)
Unrealized gain
$302.6
$457.2
174.6
125.8
300.4
873.1
(31.0)
842.1
(6,444.7)
(9.2
(6,453.9)
542.8
179.5
(187.5)
(8.0)
(439.6)
(31.4
(471.0)
$323.9
F-29
Fair Value of Financial Instruments
carrying value and estimated fair value of AFG's financial instruments at
December 31.
Carrying
$12,297
300
accumulated
$ 6,975
$ 6,781
$ 6,454
$ 6,284
629
624
257
287
Payable to subsidiary trusts
Minority Interest:
Trust preferred securities
$ 242
$ 238
54
$ 2,076
$ 1,933
$ 1,726
$ 1,595
When available, fair values are based on prices quoted in the most active market for each security. If quoted prices are not available, fair value is estimated based on present values, discounted cash flows, fair value of comparable securities, or similar methods. The fair value of the liability for annuities in the payout phase is assumed to be the present value of the anticipated cash flows, discounted at current interest rates. Fair value of annuities in the accumulation phase is assumed to be the policyholders' cash surrender amount. Fair value of shareholders' equity is based on the quoted market price of AFG's Common Stock.
Financial Instruments with Off-Balance-Sheet Risk
Restrictions on Transfer of Funds and Assets of Subsidiaries
Transactions With Affiliates
F-30
under the credit line. In September 2002, the homebuilding company was sold to an unrelated party for a gain of $9.3 million (included in realized gains on other investments) and GAFRI's line of credit was repaid and terminated.
In 2001, an AFG subsidiary purchased a 29% interest in an aircraft for$1.6 million (fair value as determined by independent third party) from a company owned by a brother of AFG's chairman. The remaining interests in the aircraft are owned by AFG's chairman and his two brothers. Costs of operating the aircraft are being borne proportionately.
In 2000, GAFRI received an $18.9 million subordinated note in connection with the sale of its minority ownership interest in an ethanol company back to that company. Following the sale, AFG's Chairman beneficially owns 100% of the ethanol company. The note bore interest at 12-1/4% and was repaid as follows: $6 million in 2001, $1 million in 2002 and the remaining $11.9 million in 2003. In December 2003, the ethanol company repaid a GAFRI subsidiary $4.0 million under a subordinated note that bore interest at 14%. As of the end of 2003, AFG's only remaining interest in the ethanol company is Great American's $10 million line of credit, under which no amounts have been borrowed.
In connection with the sale of the remaining shares of Infinity in December 2003, AFG paid Infinity $13.5 million to commute a prior indemnification and cost reimbursement obligation. AFG purchased at fair value $4.7 million in marketable securities from Infinity during 2003. During 2003, Infinity paid AFG $9.0 million for rent, information technology, investment, accounting, legal, actuarial and other services. In 2003, Infinity repaid a $55 million note due to AFG plus $2.5 million in interest.
During 2003, AFG subsidiaries invested $20 million in preferred stock and warrants of an unrelated party who utilized the proceeds to repay bank loans, including $3.4 million in loans and fees to the Provident Bank. AFG's Chairman and members of his immediate family own approximately one-fourth of Provident's parent company; AFG owns 14% of the parent company.
F-31
PART IV
ITEM 15
Exhibits, Financial Statement Schedules and Reports on Form 8-K
(a) Documents filed as part of this Report:
1. Financial Statements are included in Part II, Item 8.
2. Financial Statement Schedules:
A. Selected Quarterly Financial Data is included in Note O to the
B. Schedules filed herewith for 2003, 2002 and 2001:
I - Condensed Financial Information of Registrant
S-2
V - Supplemental Information Concerning
Property-Casualty Insurance Operations
S-4
All other schedules for which provisions are made in the applicable regulation of the Securities and Exchange Commission have been omitted as they are not applicable, not required, or the information required thereby is set forth in the Financial Statements or the notes thereto.
3. Exhibits - see Exhibit Index on page E-1.
(b) Report on Form 8-K:
Date of Report
Item Reported
October 7, 2003
Press Release regarding AFC/AFG Merger Agreement.
October 29, 2003
Third Quarter 2003 Earnings Release.
November 21, 2003
Press Release regarding Completion of AFC/AFG Merger.
December 17, 2003
Press Release regarding Sale of Remaining Infinity Shares.
January 30, 2004
Press Release regarding Sale of 7-1/8% Senior Debentures
due 2034.
February 2, 2004
Correction of Press Release regarding Sale of 7-1/8%
Senior Debentures due 2034.
Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2003 Earnings Release.
February 17, 2004
Press Release regarding Potential Effect of a Proposed
Merger Agreement between Provident Financial Group, Inc.
and National City Corporation.
S-1
AMERICAN FINANCIAL GROUP, INC. - PARENT ONLY (*)
SCHEDULE I - CONDENSED FINANCIAL INFORMATION OF REGISTRANT
Condensed Balance Sheet
December 31
$ 5,097
$ 6,084
Receivables from affiliates
66,545
165,442
Investment in subsidiaries
4,019,453
3,622,334
Investment in securities
3,064
2,464
34,921
Other assets
295,343
130,898
$4,424,423
$3,962,143
Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity:
$ 68,860
$ 71,533
Payables to affiliates
1,704,784
1,455,696
Long-term debt
574,618
636,912
Shareholders' equity
1,798,002
Condensed Statement of Operations
Year Ended December 31,
Dividends from subsidiaries
$ 282
$ 76,004
$ 60,282
Equity in undistributed earnings
of subsidiaries
366,735
146,758
73,163
Realized gains on investments
9,076
849
Investment and other income
4,075
5,844
15,031
371,132
237,682
149,325
Interest charges on intercompany borrowings
30,992
28,259
35,836
Interest charges on other borrowings
34,757
33,839
39,221
34,415
47,430
56,763
100,164
109,528
131,820
Earnings from continuing operations
before income taxes and accounting changes
270,968
128,154
17,505
Provision (credit) for income taxes
(50,183
4,587
2,442
(*) For periods prior to the AFG/AFC merger in November 2003, the Parent Only Financial Statements include the accounts of AFG, AFC and AFC Holding Company.
SCHEDULE I - CONDENSED FINANCIAL INFORMATION OF REGISTRANT - CONTINUED
Condensed Statement of Cash Flows
Equity in earnings of subsidiaries
(217,986)
(131,438)
(68,921)
2,451
3,975
4,602
Realized gains on investing activities
(1)
(8,697)
(2,432)
Change in balances with affiliates
316,039
192,103
122,809
Increase in other assets
(127,907)
(84,912)
(38,027)
Increase (decrease) in other liabilities
2,053
(32,947)
32,334
282
48,732
60,282
984
1,307
2,091
263,430
113,123
107,938
Capital contributions to subsidiaries
(165,000)
(156,041)
(67,514)
Purchases of investments
(5,583)
Sales of investments
18,546
1,209
Purchases of property and equipment
(341)
(1,429)
(4,620)
Sales of property and equipment
1,576
(165,284
(142,931
(70,901
220,482
192,060
135,338
(288,282)
(153,414)
(112,152)
4,499
10,915
17,766
(3,324)
Cash dividends paid
(1,170
(99,133
21,727
(25,116
(987)
(8,081)
11,921
Cash and short-term investments at beginning
of period
6,084
14,165
2,244
Cash and short-term investments at end
$ 14,165
S-3
SCHEDULE V - SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION CONCERNING
PROPERTY-CASUALTY INSURANCE OPERATIONS
THREE YEARS ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2003
(IN MILLIONS)
COLUMN A
COLUMN B
COLUMN C
COLUMN D
COLUMN E
COLUMN F
COLUMN G
COLUMN H
COLUMN I
COLUMN J
COLUMN K
AFFILIATIONWITH REGISTRANT
DEFERRED POLICY ACQUISITION COSTS
(a) RESERVES FOR UNPAID CLAIMS AND CLAIMS ADJUSTMENT EXPENSES
(b) DISCOUNT DEDUCTED INCOLUMN C
(c) UNEARNED PREMIUMS
EARNED PREMIUMS
NET INVESTMENT INCOME
CLAIMS AND CLAIM ADJUSTMENT EXPENSES INCURRED RELATED TO
AMORTIZATION OF DEFERRED POLICY ACQUISITION COSTS
PAID CLAIMS AND CLAIM ADJUSTMENT EXPENSES
PREMIUMS WRITTEN
CURRENT YEARS
(d) PRIOR YEARS
CONSOLIDATED PROPERTY-CASUALTY ENTITIES
$237
$26
$1,595
$219
$1,203
$395
$1,238
$251
$25
$1,848
$293
$1,664
$429
$1,688
$307
$1,950
$556
$1,867
(a) Grossed up for reinsurance recoverables of $2,059 and $1,804 at December 31, 2003 and 2002, respectively.
(b) Discounted at approximately 7% in 2003 and 8% in 2002.
(c) Grossed up for prepaid reinsurance premiums of $620 and $679 at December 31, 2003 and 2002, respectively.
(d) Includes amounts recorded in discontinued operations: 2003 - $2 million; 2002 - $2 million; and 2001 - $33 million.
Signatures
Pursuant to the requirements of Section 13 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, American Financial Group, Inc. has duly caused this Report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned, duly authorized.
Signed: March 12, 2004
BY:s/CARL H. LINDNER
Carl H. Lindner
Chairman of the Board and
Chief Executive Officer
______________________________________
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, this Report has been signed below by the following persons on behalf of the Registrant and in the capacities and on the dates indicated:
Signature
Capacity
Date
s/CARL H. LINDNER
Chairman of the Board
March 12, 2004
of Directors
s/THEODORE H. EMMERICH
Director*
Theodore H. Emmerich
s/JAMES E. EVANS
Director
James E. Evans
s/TERRY S. JACOBS
Terry S. Jacobs
s/CARL H. LINDNER III
Carl H. Lindner III
s/S. CRAIG LINDNER
S. Craig Lindner
s/WILLIAM R. MARTIN
William R. Martin
s/WILLIAM A. SCHUTZER
William A. Schutzer
s/WILLIAM W. VERITY
William W. Verity
s/FRED J. RUNK
Senior Vice President and
Fred J. Runk
Treasurer (principal
financial and accounting
officer)
* Member of the Audit Committee
INDEX TO EXHIBITS
Number
Exhibit Description
3(a)
Amended and Restated Articles of
Incorporation, filed as Exhibit 3(a)
to AFG's Form 10-K for 1997.
(*)
3(b)
Code of Regulations, filed as Exhibit 3(b)
Instruments defining the rights of
Registrant has no
security holders.
outstanding debt issues
exceeding 10% of the
assets of Registrant and
consolidated subsidiaries.
Management Contracts:
10(a)
Stock Option Plan, filed as Exhibit 10(a)
to AFG's Form 10-K for 1998.
10(b)
Form of stock option agreements, filed as
Exhibit 10(b) to AFG's Form 10-K for 1998.
10(c)
2003 Annual Bonus Plan, filed as Exhibit 10
to AFG's March 31, 2003 Form 10-Q/A.
Amended and restated Nonqualified Auxiliary RASP.
10(e)
Retirement program for outside directors,
filed as Exhibit 10(e) to AFG's Form 10-K
for 1995.
10(f)
Directors' Compensation Plan,
filed as Exhibit 10(f) to AFG's Form 10-K
10(g)
Deferred Compensation Plan, filed as
Exhibit 10 to AFG's Registration Statement
on Form S-8 on December 2, 1999.
Amended and restated Credit Agreement, dated as
of November 20, 2003, among American Financial
Group, Inc., as Borrower, Fleet National
Bank, Bank of America, N.A. and KeyBank National
Association.
(*) Incorporated herein by reference.
E-1