W. R. Berkley - 10-Q quarterly report FY

 

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(203) 629-3000

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Number of shares of common stock, $.20 par value, outstanding as of July 30, 2007: 187,269,784.

 

ITEM 1. Financial Statements

1. GENERAL

     The accompanying consolidated financial statements should be read in conjunction with the following notes and with the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements included in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2006. Reclassifications have been made in the 2006 financial statements as originally reported to conform them to the presentation of the 2007 financial statements.

     The income tax provision has been computed based on the Company’s estimated annual effective tax rate, which differs from the federal income tax rate of 35% principally because of tax-exempt investment income.

     The Company presents both basic and diluted earnings per share (EPS) amounts. Basic EPS is calculated by dividing net income by weighted average number of common shares outstanding during the year. Diluted EPS is based upon the weighted average number of common and common equivalent shares outstanding during the year and is calculated using the treasury stock method for stock incentive plans. Common equivalent shares are excluded from the computation in periods in which they have an anti-dilutive effect. Stock options for which the exercise price exceeds the average market price over the period have an anti-dilutive effect on EPS and, accordingly, are excluded from the calculation.

     In the opinion of management, the financial information reflects all adjustments that are necessary for a fair presentation of financial position and results of operations for the interim periods. Seasonal weather variations and natural and man-made catastrophes can have a significant impact on the results of any one or more reporting periods.

     The Company adopted FASB Interpretation 48 (“FIN 48”), Accounting for Uncertainty in Income Taxes” effective January 1, 2007. The adoption of FIN 48 did not have an impact on the Company’s financial condition or results of operations. The Company believes there are no tax positions that would require disclosure under the FIN 48. The federal tax returns for 2003 through 2006 are currently open and subject to examination. Statutes of limitations have not been extended in any significant tax jurisdiction. Tax years remain open in accordance with federal, foreign and local tax statutes.

2. COMPREHENSIVE INCOME

     The following is a reconciliation of comprehensive income (dollars in thousands):

3. INVESTMENTS

     The cost, fair value and carrying value of fixed maturity securities and equity securities are as follows (dollars in thousands):

4. REINSURANCE CEDED

     The Company reinsures a portion of its exposures principally to reduce its net liability on individual risks and to protect against catastrophic losses. Estimated amounts recoverable from reinsurers are net of reserves for uncollectible reinsurance of $2.6 million and $2.5 million as of June 30, 2007 and December 31, 2006, respectively. The following amounts arising under reinsurance ceded contracts have been deducted in arriving at the amounts reflected in the statement of income (dollars in thousands):

5. INDUSTRY SEGMENTS

     The Company’s operations are presently conducted in five segments of the insurance business: specialty lines of insurance, regional property casualty insurance, alternative markets, reinsurance and international.

     Our specialty segment underwrites complex and sophisticated third-party liability risks, principally within the excess and surplus lines. The primary lines of business are premises operations, products liability, commercial automobile, professional liability and property lines. The companies within the segment are divided along the different customer bases and product lines that they serve. The specialty units deliver their products through a variety of distribution channels depending on the customer base and particular risks insured. The customers in this segment are highly diverse.

     Our regional segment provides commercial insurance products to customers primarily in 42 states and the District of Columbia. Key clients of this segment are small-to-mid-sized businesses and state and local governmental entities. The regional subsidiaries are organized geographically, which provides them with the flexibility to adapt quickly to local market conditions. The regional operations are conducted through four geographic regions based on markets served: Midwest, New England, Southern (excluding Florida) and Mid Atlantic.

     Our alternative markets operations specialize in developing, insuring, reinsuring and administering self-insurance programs and other alternative risk transfer mechanisms. Our clients include employers, employer groups, insurers, and alternative market funds seeking less costly, more efficient ways to manage exposure to risks. In addition to providing insurance, the alternative markets segment also provides a wide variety of fee-based services, including consulting and administrative services.

     Our reinsurance operations specialize in underwriting property casualty reinsurance on both a treaty and a facultative basis. The principal reinsurance units are facultative reinsurance, which writes individual certificates and program facultative business, treaty reinsurance, which functions as a traditional reinsurer in specialty and standard reinsurance lines, and Lloyd’s reinsurance, which writes property and casualty reinsurance through Lloyd’s.

     Our international segment offers professional indemnity and other lines in the U.K. and Spain and commercial and personal property casualty insurance in Argentina and Brazil.

     The accounting policies of the segments are the same as those described in the summary of significant accounting policies in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2006. Income tax expense and benefits are calculated based upon the Company’s effective tax rate.

     Summary financial information about the Company’s operating segments is presented in the following table. Net income by segment consists of revenues less expenses related to the respective segment’s operations, including allocated investment income. Identifiable assets by segment are those assets used in or allocated to the operation of each segment.

5. INDUSTRY SEGMENTS (continued)

5. INDUSTRY SEGMENTS (continued)

     Identifiable assets by segment are as follows (dollars in thousands):

5. INDUSTRY SEGMENTS (continued)

Net premiums earned by major line of business are as follows (dollars in thousands):

6. COMMITMENTS, LITIGATION AND CONTINGENT LIABILITIES

     The Company’s subsidiaries are subject to disputes, including litigation and arbitration, arising in the ordinary course of their insurance and reinsurance businesses. The Company’s estimates of the costs of settling such matters are reflected in its aggregate reserves for losses and loss expenses, and the Company does not believe that the ultimate outcome of such matters will have a material adverse effect on its financial condition or results of operations. However, adverse outcomes are possible and could negatively impact the Company’s financial condition and results of operations.

7. ACQUISITIONS AND DISPOSITIONS

     In January 2007, the Company acquired all the shares of outstanding common stock of Atlantic Aero Holdings, Inc. for $21 million. Atlantic Aero is a fixed base operator located in Greensboro, North Carolina and provides a full range of services to the general aviation market, including fuel and line service, aircraft sales and maintenance, avionics and engineering services and parts fabrication.

     In March 2007, the Company sold its interest in Berkley International Philippines, Inc. and its subsidiaries (BIPI) for $25 million. The Company reported a pre-tax realized gain of $2.0 million from the sale of BIPI. For the year ended December 31, 2006, the Company reported revenues of $21.0 million and pre-tax earnings of $4.5 million from the operations of BIPI.

8. SUBSEQUENT EVENT

     In July 2007, the Company repurchased 5,620,000 shares of its common stock for $174 million.

This is a “Safe Harbor” Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Any forward-looking statements contained herein, including statements related to our outlook for the industry and for our performance for the year 2007 and beyond, are based upon the Company’s historical performance and on current plans, estimates and expectations. The inclusion of this forward-looking information should not be regarded as a representation by us or any other person that the future plans, estimates or expectations contemplated by us will be achieved. They are subject to various risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to, the cyclical nature of the property casualty industry, the long-tail and potentially volatile nature of the insurance and reinsurance business, product demand and pricing, claims development and the process of estimating reserves, the uncertain nature of damage theories and loss amounts, natural and man-made catastrophic losses, including as a result of terrorist activities, the impact of competition, the success of our new ventures or acquisitions and the availability of other opportunities, the availability of reinsurance, exposure as to coverage for terrorist acts, our retention under The Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002, as amended (“TRIA”), and the potential expiration of TRIA, the ability of our reinsurers to pay reinsurance recoverables owed to us, investment risks, including those of our portfolio of fixed maturity securities and investments in equity securities, including merger arbitrage investments, exchange rate and political risks relating to our international operations, legislative and regulatory developments, including those related to alleged anti-competitive or other improper business practices in the insurance or reinsurance industry, changes in the ratings assigned to us by ratings agencies, the availability of dividends from our insurance company subsidiaries, our ability to attract and retain qualified employees, and other risks detailed from time to time in the Company’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These risks could cause actual results of the industry or our actual results for the year 2007 and beyond to differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statement made by or on behalf of the Company. Any projections of growth in the Company’s net premiums written and service fees would not necessarily result in commensurate levels of underwriting and operating profits. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date on which they are made.

     W. R. Berkley Corporation is an insurance holding company that is among the largest commercial lines writers in the United States and operates in five business segments: specialty insurance, regional property casualty insurance, alternative markets, reinsurance and international. The Company’s primary sources of revenues and earnings are insurance and investments.

     The profitability of the Company’s insurance business is affected primarily by the adequacy of premium rates. The ultimate adequacy of premium rates is not known with certainty at the time a property casualty insurance policy is issued because premiums are determined before claims are reported. The ultimate adequacy of premium rates is affected mainly by the severity and frequency of claims, which are influenced by many factors, including natural and other disasters, regulatory measures and court decisions that define and change the extent of coverage and the effects of economic inflation on the amount of compensation due for injuries or losses. General insurance prices are also influenced by available insurance capacity, i.e., the level of policyholders’ surplus employed in the industry, and the industry’s willingness to deploy that capital.

     The Company’s profitability is also affected by its investment income. The Company’s invested assets, which are derived from its own capital and cash flow from its insurance business, are invested principally in fixed maturity securities. The return on fixed maturity securities is affected primarily by general interest rates and the credit quality and duration of the securities. The Company also invests in equity securities, including equity securities related to merger arbitrage and convertible arbitrage strategies.

     The following presents a discussion of accounting policies and estimates relating to reserves for losses and loss expenses and assumed premiums. Management believes these policies and estimates are the most critical to its operations and require the most difficult, subjective and complex judgments.

     Reserves for Losses and Loss Expenses. To recognize liabilities for unpaid losses, either known or unknown, insurers establish reserves, which is a balance sheet account representing estimates of future amounts needed to pay claims and related expenses with respect to insured events which have occurred. Estimates and assumptions relating to reserves for losses and loss expenses are based on complex and subjective judgments, often including the interplay of specific uncertainties with related accounting and actuarial measurements. Such estimates are also susceptible to change as significant periods of time may elapse between the occurrence of an insured loss, the report of the loss to the insurer, the ultimate determination of the cost of the loss and the insurer’s payment of that loss.

     In general, when a claim is reported, claims personnel establish a “case reserve” for the estimated amount of the ultimate payment. The estimate represents an informed judgment based on general reserving practices and reflects the experience and knowledge of the claims personnel regarding the nature and value of the specific type of claim. Reserves are also established on an aggregate basis to provide for losses incurred but not reported (“IBNR”) to the insurer, potential inadequacy of case reserves and the estimated expenses of settling claims, including legal and other fees and general expenses of administrating the claims adjustment process. Reserves are established based upon the then current legal interpretation of coverage provided.

     In examining reserve adequacy, several factors are considered in addition to the economic value of losses. These factors include historical data, legal developments, changes in social attitudes and economic conditions, including the effects of inflation. The actuarial process relies on the basic assumption that past experience, adjusted judgmentally for the effects of current developments and anticipated trends, is an appropriate basis for predicting future outcomes. Reserve amounts are necessarily based on management’s informed estimates and judgments using currently available data. As additional experience and other data become available and are reviewed, these estimates and judgments may be revised. This may result in reserve increases or decreases that would be reflected in our results in periods in which such estimates and assumptions are changed.

     Reserves do not represent an exact calculation of liability. Rather, reserves represent an estimate of what management expects the ultimate settlement and claim administration will cost. While the methods for establishing the reserves are well tested over time, some of the major assumptions about anticipated loss emergence patterns are subject to unanticipated fluctuation. These estimates, which generally involve actuarial projections, are based on management’s assessment of facts and circumstances then known, as well as estimates of future trends in claims severity and frequency, judicial theories of liability and other factors, including the actions of third parties which are beyond the Company’s control. These variables are affected by internal and external events, such as inflation and economic volatility, judicial and litigation trends, reinsurance coverage and legislative changes, which make it more difficult to accurately predict claim costs. The inherent uncertainties of estimating reserves are greater for certain types of liabilities where long periods of time elapse before a definitive determination of liability is made. Because setting reserves is inherently uncertain, the Company cannot assure that its current reserves will prove adequate in light of subsequent events.

     Loss reserves included in the Company’s financial statements represent management’s best estimates based upon an actuarially derived point estimate and other considerations. The Company uses a variety of actuarial techniques and methods to derive an actuarial point estimate for each operating unit. These methods include paid loss development, incurred loss development, paid and incurred Bornhuetter-Ferguson methods and frequency and severity methods. In circumstances where one actuarial method is considered more credible than the others, that method is used to set the point estimate. For example, the paid loss and incurred loss development methods rely on historical paid and incurred loss data. For new lines of business, where there is insufficient history of paid and incurred claims data, or in circumstances where there have been significant changes in claim practices, the paid and incurred loss development methods would be less credible than other actuarial methods. The actuarial point estimate may also be based on a judgmental weighting of estimates produced from each of the methods considered. Industry loss experience is used to supplement the Company’s own data in selecting “tail factors” and in areas where the Company’s own data is limited. The actuarial data is analyzed by line of business, coverage and accident or policy year, as appropriate, for each operating unit.

     The establishment of the actuarially derived loss reserve point estimate also includes consideration of qualitative factors that may affect the ultimate losses. These qualitative considerations include, among others, the impact of re-underwriting initiatives, changes in the mix of business, changes in distribution sources and changes in policy terms and conditions. Examples of changes in terms and conditions that can have a significant impact on reserve levels are the use of aggregate policy limits, the expansion of coverage exclusions, whether or not defense costs are within policy limits, and changes in deductibles and attachment points.

     The key assumptions used to arrive at the best estimate of loss reserves are the expected loss ratios, rate of loss cost inflation, and reported and paid loss emergence patterns. Expected loss ratios represent management’s expectation of losses at the time the business is written, before any actual claims experience has emerged. This expectation is a significant determinant of the estimate of loss reserves for recently written business where there is little paid or incurred loss data to consider. Expected loss ratios are generally derived from

historical loss ratios adjusted for the impact of rate changes, loss cost trends and known changes in the type of risks underwritten. Expected loss ratios are estimated for each key line of business within each operating unit. Expected loss cost inflation is particularly important for the long-tail lines, such as excess casualty, and claims with a high medical component, such as workers’ compensation. Reported and paid loss emergence patterns are used to project current reported or paid loss amounts to their ultimate settlement value. Loss development factors are based on the historical emergence patterns of paid and incurred losses, and are derived from the Company’s own experience and industry data. The paid loss emergence pattern is also significant to excess and assumed workers’ compensation reserves because those reserves are discounted to their estimated present value based upon such estimated payout patterns. Management believes the estimates and assumptions it makes in the reserving process provide the best estimate of the ultimate cost of settling claims and related expenses with respect to insured events which have occurred; however, different assumptions and variables could lead to significantly different reserve estimates.

     Loss frequency and severity are measures of loss activity that are considered in determining the key assumptions described in our discussion of loss and loss expense reserves, including expected loss ratios, rate of loss cost inflation and reported and paid loss emergence patterns. Loss frequency is a measure of the number of claims per unit of insured exposure, and loss severity is a measure of the average size of claims. Factors affecting loss frequency include the effectiveness of loss controls and safety programs and changes in economic activity or weather patterns. Factors affecting loss severity include changes in policy limits, retentions, rate of inflation and judicial interpretations.

     Another factor affecting estimates of loss frequency and severity is the loss reporting lag, which is the period of time between the occurrence of a loss and the date the loss is reported to the Company. The length of the loss reporting lag affects our ability to accurately predict loss frequency (loss frequencies are more predictable for lines with short reporting lags) as well as the amount of reserves needed for incurred but not reported losses (less IBNR is required for lines with short reporting lags). As a result, loss reserves for lines with short reporting lags are likely to have less variation from initial loss estimates. For lines with short reporting lags, which include commercial automobile, primary workers’ compensation, commercial multi-peril business, other liability (claims-made) and property business, the key assumption is the loss emergence pattern used to project ultimate loss estimates from known losses paid or reported to date. For lines of business with long reporting lags, which include other liability (occurrence), products liability, excess workers’ compensation and liability reinsurance, the key assumption is the expected loss ratio since there is little paid or incurred loss data to consider.

     Historically, the Company has experienced less variation from its initial loss estimates for lines of businesses with short reporting lags than for lines of business with long reporting lags. For example, as of December 31, 2006, initial loss estimates for accident years 1997 through 2005 were increased by an average of 5% for lines with short reporting lags and by an average of 20% for lines with long reporting lags. For the latest accident year ended December 31, 2006, initial loss estimates were $1.6 billion for lines with short reporting lags and $1.3 billion for lines with long reporting lags.

     The key assumptions used in calculating the most recent estimate of the loss reserves are reviewed each quarter and adjusted, to the extent necessary, to reflect historical changes, current trends and other factors observed. For example, in 2006 loss reserves for our commercial automobile business were increased to reflect an observed trend of higher severity losses, and in 2006 loss reserves for our California workers’ compensation business were decreased to reflect an observed trend of lower severity losses following the enactment of legislative reforms.

     If the actual level of loss frequency or severity are higher or lower than expected, the ultimate losses will be different than management’s estimate. The following table reflects the impact of changes (which could be favorable or unfavorable) in frequency and severity on our loss estimate for claims occurring in 2006 (dollars in thousands):

     Our net reserves for losses and loss expenses of $7.4 billion as of June 30, 2007 relate to multiple accident years. Therefore, the impact of changes in frequency or severity for more than one accident year could be higher or lower than the amounts reflected above.

     Approximately $1.8 billion, or 25%, of the Company’s net loss reserves relate to assumed reinsurance business. There is a higher degree of uncertainty and greater variability regarding estimates of assumed reinsurance loss reserves because those estimates are based, in part, upon information received from ceding companies. If information received from ceding companies is not timely or correct, the Company’s estimate of ultimate losses may not be accurate. Furthermore, due to delayed reporting of claim information by ceding companies, the claim settlement tail for assumed reinsurance is extended. Management considers the impact of delayed reporting in its selection of assumed loss development factors.

     Information received from ceding companies is used to set initial expected loss ratios, to establish case reserves and to estimate reserves for incurred but not reported losses on assumed reinsurance business. This information, which is generally provided through reinsurance intermediaries, is gathered through the underwriting process and from periodic claim reports and other correspondence with ceding companies. The Company performs underwriting and claim audits of selected ceding companies to determine the accuracy and completeness of information provided to the Company. The information received from the ceding companies is supplemented by the Company’s own loss development experience with similar lines of business as well as industry loss trends and loss development benchmarks.

     Following is a summary of the Company’s reserves for losses and loss expenses by business segment as of June 30, 2007 and December 31, 2006 (dollars in thousands):

     Following is a summary of the Company’s net reserves for losses and loss expenses by major line of business as of June 30, 2007 and December 31, 2006 (dollars in thousands):

     For the six months ended June 30, 2007, the Company reported losses and loss expenses of $1.4 billion, of which $53 million represented a decrease in estimates for claims occurring in prior years. The estimates for claims occurring in prior years were decreased by $71 million for primary business and increased by $18 million for assumed reinsurance business. On an accident year basis, the change in prior year reserves is comprised of an increase in estimates of $54 million for claims occurring in accident years 2003 and prior, and a decrease in estimates of $107 million for claims occurring in accident years 2004 through 2006.

     Case reserves for primary business increased 8% to $2.1 billion at June 30, 2007 from $1.9 billion at December 31, 2006 as a result of a 3% increase in the number of outstanding claims and a 7% increase in the average case reserve per claim. Reserves for incurred but not reported losses for primary business increased 6% to $3.5 billion at June 30, 2007 from $3.3 billion at December 31, 2006. Prior year reserves decreased by: $38 million for the specialty segment, $18 million for the alternative market segment, $13 million for the regional segment and $2 million for the international segment. By line of business, prior year reserves decreased by $46 million, $19 million and $7 million for general liability, workers’ compensation and property, respectively, and increased by $1 million for commercial automobile.

     Case reserves for reinsurance business increased 7% to $727 million at June 30, 2007 from $680 million at December 31, 2006. Reserves for incurred but not reported losses for reinsurance business increased 2% to $1,107 million at June 30, 2007 from $1,084 million at December 31, 2006. Prior year reserves increased $18 million as losses reported by ceding companies for those years were higher than expected. The Company sets its initial loss estimates based principally upon information obtained during the underwriting process and adjusts these estimates as losses are reported by ceding companies and additional information becomes available.

     Assumed Reinsurance Premiums. The Company estimates the amount of assumed reinsurance premiums that it will receive under treaty reinsurance agreements at the inception of the contracts. These premium estimates are revised as the actual amount of assumed premiums is reported to the Company by the ceding companies. As estimates of assumed premiums are made or revised, the related amount of earned premium, commissions and incurred losses associated with those premiums are recorded. Estimated assumed premiums receivable were approximately $87 million and $139 million at June 30, 2007 and December 31, 2006, respectively. The assumed premium estimates are based upon terms set forth in the reinsurance agreement, information received from ceding companies during the underwriting and negotiation of the agreement, reports received from ceding companies and discussions and correspondence with reinsurance intermediaries. The Company also considers its own view of market conditions, economic trends and experience with similar lines of business. These premium estimates represent management’s best estimate of the ultimate premiums to be received under its assumed reinsurance agreements.

Results of Operations for the Six Months Ended June 30, 2007 and 2006

Business Segment Results

     Following is a summary of gross and net premiums written, premiums earned, loss ratios (losses and loss expenses incurred expressed as a percentage of premiums earned), expense ratios (underwriting expenses expressed as a percentage of premiums earned) and combined ratios (sum of loss ratio and expense ratio) for each of our business segments for the six months ended June 30, 2007 and 2006. The combined ratio represents a measure of underwriting profitability, excluding investment income. A combined ratio in excess of 100 indicates an underwriting loss; a number below 100 indicates an underwriting profit.

          The following table presents the Company’s net income and net income per share for the six months ended June 30, 2007 and 2006 (amounts in thousands, except per share data):

     The increase in net income in 2007 compared with 2006 is primarily attributable to higher investment income as a result of an increase in average invested assets. Underwriting results also improved due to a 2.2 percentage point decrease in the loss ratio (losses and loss expenses incurred expressed as percentage of premiums earned), which was partially offset by a 1.3 percentage point increase in the expense ratio (underwriting expenses experienced as a percentage of premiums earned).

          Gross Premiums Written. Gross premiums written were $2,649 million in 2007, down 4% from 2006. The Company has experienced an increased level of price competition that began in 2004. This trend continued in 2007 with price levels for renewal business declining approximately 4% from the prior year period. A summary of gross premiums written in 2007 compared with 2006 by business segment follows:

          Premiums Earned. Premiums earned decreased 0.3% to $2,327 million from $2,333 million in 2006. Insurance premiums are earned ratably over the policy term, and therefore premiums earned in 2007 are related to policies bound during both 2007 and 2006. The 0.3% decrease in 2007 earned premiums reflects the underlying change in net premiums written in those periods.

          Net Investment Income. Following is a summary of net investment income for the six months ended June 30, 2007 and 2006 (dollars in thousands):

          Net investment income increased 21% to $334 million in 2007 from $277 million in 2006. Average invested assets (including cash and cash equivalents) increased 16% to $12.3 billion in 2007 compared with $10.9 billion in 2006. The increase was primarily a result of cash flow from operations. The average annualized gross yield on investments increased to 5.5% in 2007 from 5.3% in 2006 due primarily to higher returns on partnerships and affiliates.

          Insurance Service Fees. The alternative markets segment offers fee-based services to help clients develop and administer self-insurance programs, primarily for workers’ compensation coverage. Service fees were $51 million in 2007, down from $54 million in 2006, primarily as a result of a decline in fees for managing assigned risk plans.

          Realized Investment Gains. Realized investment gains result primarily from sales of securities, as well as from provisions for other than temporary impairment in securities. Realized investment gains were $13 million in 2007 compared with $2 million in 2006. Realized gains in 2007 include a gain of $2 million from the sale of the Company’s business in the Philippines.

          The Company buys and sells securities on a regular basis in order to maximize the total return on investments. Decisions to sell securities are based on management’s view of the underlying fundamentals of specific securities as well as management’s expectations regarding interest rates, credit spreads, currency values and general economic conditions.

          Other Revenues. Other revenues increased to $21 million in 2007 from $0.7 million in 2006. Most of the other revenues in 2007 was derived from an aviation business that the Company acquired in January 2007. The aviation business provides services to the general aviation market, including fuel and line service, aircraft sales and maintenance, avionics and engineering services and parts fabrication.

          Losses and Loss Expenses. Losses and loss expenses decreased 4% to $1,389 million in 2007 from $1,443 million in 2006. The consolidated loss ratio decreased to 59.7% in 2007 from 61.9% in 2006 primarily as a result of favorable loss reserve development of $53 million in 2007 compared with unfavorable loss reserve development of $14 million in 2006. On an accident year basis, the estimated loss ratio for the first six months of 2007 was approximately five points higher than the developed loss ratio for all of 2006 due to the effects of lower premium rates and estimated loss cost inflation. A summary of loss ratios in 2007 compared with 2006 by business segment follows:

          Underwriting expenses are primarily comprised of commissions paid to agents and brokers, premium taxes and other assessments and internal underwriting costs. The consolidated expense ratio (underwriting expenses expressed as a percentage of premiums earned) increased to 28.0% in 2007 from 26.7% in 2006 primarily as a result of an increase in both commissions and internal costs.

          Service company expenses, which represent the costs associated with the alternative markets’ fee-based business, increased 4% to $47 million primarily as a result of an increase in costs associated with the servicing of assigned risk plan business.

          Aviation company expenses, which represent operating expenses related to the aviation business described above, were $18 million in 2007.

          Other costs and expenses, which represent primarily general and administrative expenses for the parent company, increased 30% to $59 million primarily as a result of higher incentive compensation costs, including costs for restricted stock units and other long-term incentive plans.

          Interest Expense. Interest expense decreased 7% to $43 million as a result of the redemption of $210 million 8.197% junior subordinated debentures in December 2006, which was partially offset by the issuance of $250 million 6.25% senior notes in February 2007.

          Income taxes. The effective income tax rate was 29% in 2007 and 2006. The effective tax rate differs from the federal income tax rate of 35% primarily because of tax-exempt investment income.

Results of Operations for The Three Months Ended June 30, 2007 and 2006

Business Segment Results

     Following is a summary of gross and net premiums written, premiums earned, loss ratios (losses and loss expenses incurred expressed as a percentage of premiums earned), expense ratios (underwriting expenses expressed as a percentage of premiums earned) and combined ratios (sum of loss ratio and expense ratio) for each of our business segments for the three months ended June 30, 2007 and 2006. The combined ratio represents a measure of underwriting profitability, excluding investment income. A combined ratio in excess of 100 indicates an underwriting loss; a number below 100 indicates an underwriting profit.