Ollie's Bargain Outlet - 10-Q quarterly report FY2022 Q2

This Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.  Forward-looking statements can be identified by words such as “could,” “may,” “might,” “will,” “likely,” “anticipates,” “intends,” “plans,” “seeks,” “believes,” “estimates,” “expects,” “continues,” “projects” and similar references to future periods, prospects, financial performance and industry outlook. Forward-looking statements are based on our current expectations and assumptions regarding our business, the economy and other future conditions. Because forward-looking statements relate to the future, by their nature, they are subject to inherent uncertainties, risks and changes in circumstances that are difficult to predict. As a result, our actual results may differ materially from those contemplated by the forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include regional, national or global political, economic, business, competitive, market and regulatory conditions, including, but not limited to, legislation, national trade policy, and the following: our failure to adequately procure and manage our inventory or anticipate consumer demand; changes in consumer confidence and spending; risks associated with our status as a “brick and mortar” only retailer; risks associated with intense competition; our failure to open new profitable stores, or successfully enter new markets, on a timely basis or at all; the risks associated with doing business with international manufacturers and suppliers including, but not limited to, potential increases in tariffs on imported goods; outbreak of viruses or widespread illness, including the continued impact of COVID-19 and continuing or renewed regulatory responses thereto; our inability to operate our stores due to civil unrest and related protests or disturbances; our failure to properly hire and to retain key personnel and other qualified personnel; risks associated with the timely and effective deployment, protection, and defense of computer networks and other electronic systems, including e-mail; our inability to obtain favorable lease terms for our properties; the failure to timely acquire, develop, open and operate, or the loss of, disruption or interruption in the operations of, any of our centralized distribution centers; fluctuations in comparable store sales and results of operations, including on a quarterly basis; risks associated with our lack of operations in the growing online retail marketplace; risks associated with litigation, the expense of defense, and potential for adverse outcomes; our inability to successfully develop or implement our marketing, advertising and promotional efforts; the seasonal nature of our business; risks associated with natural disasters, whether or not caused by climate change; changes in government regulations, procedures and requirements; and our ability to service indebtedness and to comply with our financial covenants together with each of the other factors set forth under “Item 1A - Risk Factors” contained herein and in our filings with the SEC, including our Annual Report. Any forward-looking statement made by us in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made. Factors or events that could cause our actual results to differ may emerge from time to time, and it is not possible for us to predict all of them. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise, except as may be required by law.  You are advised, however, to consult any further disclosures we make on related subjects in our public announcements and SEC filings.

Overview

Ollie’s is a highly differentiated and fast-growing, extreme value retailer of brand name merchandise at drastically reduced prices.  Known for our assortment of products offered as “Good Stuff Cheap,” we offer customers a broad selection of brand name products, including housewares, bed and bath, food, floor coverings, health and beauty aids, books and stationery, toys and electronics.  Our differentiated go-to market strategy is characterized by a unique, fun and engaging treasure hunt shopping experience, compelling customer value proposition and witty, humorous in-store signage and advertising campaigns.

COVID-19 Update

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted the U.S. and global economies, resulting in business slowdowns or shutdowns, reduced economic activity, changes in consumer behavior, and changes in the mindset and availability of the labor force.  We continue to monitor the impact of the pandemic on our business, including on our associates, customers, business partners and supply chain.

We continue to take measures to protect the health and safety of our associates and customers, a primary concern of our management team.  We have also taken measures to support the communities that we serve to address the challenges posed by the pandemic.

Following the onset of the pandemic through the first quarter of 2021, our net sales benefited from increased consumer spending associated with federal stimulus funds for said pandemic.  At this point, there is uncertainty with regard to any additional stimulus measures and, as a result, there may be potential changes in consumer spending behavior or demand.   In addition, we are experiencing labor pressures at both our stores and distribution centers, higher import and trucking costs, and supply chain disruptions due to the impacts of COVID-19 and related measures. We are increasing our hiring efforts in certain impacted markets and working closely with our suppliers and transportation partners to mitigate the impact of the supply chain challenges.  The potential significance and duration of these elevated costs is uncertain, and we will continue to assess and respond to current and evolving conditions.

As we continue to monitor the COVID-19 pandemic and potentially take actions based on the requirements and recommendations of federal, state and local authorities, we intend to focus on managing the business for future long-term growth.  In certain circumstances, there may be developments outside our control, including resurgences of COVID-19 and, in particular, new and more contagious or vaccine resistant variants, requiring us to refine our operations. As such, given the evolving nature of the pandemic, we cannot reasonably estimate its impact on our financial condition, results of operations or cash flows in the future.  Refer to Part I, Item 1A. Risk Factors of our 2021 Form 10-K for a full discussion of the risks associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

Our Growth Strategy

Since the founding of Ollie’s in 1982, we have grown organically by backfilling existing markets and leveraging our brand awareness, marketing and infrastructure to expand into new markets in contiguous states.  We have expanded to 449 stores located in 29 states as of July 30, 2022.

Our stores are supported by three distribution centers, one each in York, PA, Commerce, GA and Lancaster, TX. We believe our current distribution capabilities can support a range of 500 to 600 stores over the next several years.

We have invested in our associates, infrastructure, distribution network and information systems to allow us to continue to rapidly grow our store footprint, including:

Our business model has produced consistent and predictable store growth over the past several years, during both strong and weaker economic cycles.  We plan to continue to enhance our competitive positioning and drive growth in sales and profitability by executing on the following strategies:

We have a proven portable, flexible and highly profitable store model that has produced consistent financial results and returns.  Our new store model targets a store size between 25,000 to 35,000 square feet and an average initial cash investment of approximately $1.0 million, which includes store fixtures and equipment, store-level and distribution center inventory (net of payables) and pre-opening expenses.  We target new store sales of approximately $4 million in their first full year of operations.

While we are focused on driving comparable store sales and managing our expenses, our revenue and profitability growth will primarily come from opening new stores.  The core elements of our business model are procuring great deals, offering extreme values to our customers and creating consistent, predictable store growth and margins.  In addition, our new stores generally open strong, immediately contributing to the growth in net sales and profitability of our business.  We plan to achieve continued net sales growth, including comparable stores sales, by adding stores to our store base and by continuing to provide quality merchandise at a value for our customers as we scale and gain more access to purchase directly from major manufacturers.  We also plan to leverage and expand our Ollie’s Army database marketing strategies.  In addition, we plan to continue to manage our selling, general and administrative expenses (“SG&A”) by continuing to make process improvements and by maintaining our standard policy of reviewing our operating costs.

Our ability to grow and our results of operations may be impacted by additional factors and uncertainties, such as consumer spending habits, which are subject to macroeconomic conditions and changes in discretionary income.  Our customers’ discretionary income is primarily impacted by gas prices, wages and consumer trends and preferences, which fluctuate depending on the environment. The potential consolidation of our competitors or other changes in our competitive landscape could also impact our results of operations or our ability to grow, even though we compete with a broad range of retailers.

Our key competitive advantage is our direct buying relationships with many major manufacturers, wholesalers, distributors, brokers and retailers for our brand name and closeout products and unbranded goods.  We also augment our product mix with private label brands.  As we continue to grow, we believe our increased scale will provide us with even greater access to brand name and closeout products as major manufacturers seek a single buyer to acquire an entire deal.

How We Assess the Performance of Our Business and Key Line Items

We consider a variety of financial and operating measures in assessing the performance of our business.  The key measures we use are number of new stores, net sales, comparable store sales, gross profit and gross margin, SG&A, pre-opening expenses, operating income, EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA.

Number of New Stores

The number of new stores reflects the number of stores opened during a particular reporting period.  Before we open new stores, we incur pre-opening expenses described below under “Pre-Opening Expenses” and we make an initial investment in inventory.  We also make initial capital investments in fixtures and equipment, which we amortize over time.

We expect new store growth to be the primary driver of our sales growth.  Our initial lease terms are approximately seven years with options to renew for three to five successive five-year periods.  Our portable and predictable real estate model focuses on backfilling existing markets and entering new markets in contiguous states.  Our new stores often open with higher sales levels as a result of greater advertising and promotional spend in connection with grand opening events, but decline shortly thereafter to our new store model levels.

Net Sales

Ollie’s recognizes retail sales in its stores when merchandise is sold and the customer takes possession of the merchandise.  Also included in net sales is revenue allocated to certain redeemed discounts earned via the Ollie’s Army loyalty program and gift card breakage.  Net sales are presented net of returns and sales tax.  Net sales consist of sales from comparable stores and non-comparable stores, described below under “Comparable Store Sales.”  Growth of our net sales is primarily driven by expansion of our store base in existing and new markets.  As we continue to grow, we believe we will have greater access to brand name and closeout merchandise and an increased deal selection, resulting in more potential offerings for our customers.  Net sales are impacted by product mix, merchandise mix and availability, as well as promotional activities and the spending habits of our customers. Our broad selection of offerings across diverse product categories supports growth in net sales by attracting new customers, which results in higher spending levels and frequency of shopping visits from our customers, including Ollie’s Army members.

The spending habits of our customers are subject to macroeconomic conditions and changes in discretionary income.  Our customers’ discretionary income is primarily impacted by gas prices, wages, and consumer trends and preferences, which fluctuate depending on the environment.  However, because we offer a broad selection of merchandise at extreme values, we believe we are less impacted than other retailers by economic cycles that correspond with declines in general consumer spending habits.  We believe we also benefit from periods of increased consumer spending.

Comparable Store Sales

Comparable store sales measure performance of a store during the current reporting period against the performance of the same store in the corresponding period of the previous year.  Comparable store sales consist of net sales from our stores beginning on the first day of the sixteenth full fiscal month following the store’s opening, which is when we believe comparability is achieved.  Comparable store sales are impacted by the same factors that impact net sales.

We define comparable stores to be stores that:

Non-comparable store sales consist of new store sales and sales for stores not open for a full 15 months.  Stores which are closed temporarily, but for more than five days in any fiscal month, are included in non-comparable store sales beginning in the fiscal month in which the temporary closure begins until the first full month of operation once the store re-opens, at which time they are included in comparable store sales.

Opening new stores is the primary component of our growth strategy and as we continue to execute on our growth strategy, we expect a significant portion of our sales growth will be attributable to non-comparable store sales.  Accordingly, comparable store sales are only one measure we use to assess the success of our growth strategy.

Gross Profit and Gross Margin

Gross profit is equal to our net sales less our cost of sales.  Cost of sales includes merchandise costs, inventory markdowns, shrinkage and transportation, distribution and warehousing costs, including depreciation. Gross margin is gross profit as a percentage of our net sales. Gross margin is a measure used by management to indicate whether we are selling merchandise at an appropriate gross profit.

In addition, our gross margin is impacted by product mix, as some products generally provide higher gross margins, by our merchandise mix and availability, and by our merchandise cost, which can vary.

Our gross profit is variable in nature and generally follows changes in net sales.  We regularly analyze the components of gross profit, as well as gross margin.  Specifically, our product margin and merchandise mix is reviewed by our merchant team and senior management, ensuring strict adherence to internal margin goals.  Our disciplined buying approach has produced consistent gross margins and we believe helps to mitigate adverse impacts on gross profit and results of operation.

The components of our cost of sales may not be comparable to the components of cost of sales or similar measures of our competitors and other retailers.  As a result, our gross profit and gross margin may not be comparable to similar data made available by our competitors and other retailers.

Selling, General and Administrative Expenses

SG&A are comprised of payroll and benefits for store, field support and support center associates.  SG&A also include marketing and advertising expense, occupancy costs for stores and the store support center, insurance, corporate infrastructure and other general expenses. The components of our SG&A remain relatively consistent per store and for each new store opening. The components of our SG&A may not be comparable to the components of similar measures of other retailers.  Consolidated SG&A generally increase as we grow our store base and as our net sales increase. A significant portion of our expenses is primarily fixed in nature, and we expect to continue to maintain strict discipline while carefully monitoring SG&A as a percentage of net sales.  We expect that our SG&A will continue to increase in future periods with future growth.

Depreciation and Amortization Expenses

Property and equipment are stated at original cost less accumulated depreciation and amortization. Depreciation and amortization expenses are calculated over the estimated useful lives of the related assets, or in the case of leasehold improvements, the lesser of the useful lives or the remaining term of the lease. Expenditures for additions, renewals, and betterments are capitalized; expenditures for maintenance and repairs are charged to expense as incurred. Depreciation and amortization are computed on the straight-line method for financial reporting purposes. Depreciation as it relates to our distribution centers is included within cost of sales on the condensed consolidated statements of income.

Pre-Opening Expenses

Pre-opening expenses consist of expenses of opening new stores and distribution centers, as well as store closing costs.  For opening new stores, pre-opening expenses include grand opening advertising costs, payroll expenses, travel expenses, employee training costs, rent expenses and store setup costs.  Pre-opening expenses for new stores are expensed as they are incurred, which is typically within 30 to 45 days of opening a new store. For opening distribution centers, pre-opening expenses primarily include inventory transportation costs, employee travel expenses and occupancy costs.  Store closing costs primarily consist of insurance deductibles, rent and store payroll.

Operating Income

Operating income is gross profit less SG&A, depreciation and amortization and pre-opening expenses.  Operating income excludes net interest income or expense and income tax expense or benefit.  We use operating income as an indicator of the productivity of our business and our ability to manage expenses.

EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA

EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA are key metrics used by management and our Board to assess our financial performance.  EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA are also frequently used by analysts, investors and other interested parties to evaluate companies in our industry.  We use Adjusted EBITDA to supplement U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”) measures of performance to evaluate the effectiveness of our business strategies, to make budgeting decisions, to evaluate our performance in connection with compensation decisions and to compare our performance against that of other peer companies using similar measures.  Management believes it is useful to investors and analysts to evaluate these non-GAAP measures on the same basis as management uses to evaluate the Company’s operating results.  We believe that excluding items from operating income, net income and net income per diluted share that may not be indicative of, or are unrelated to, our core operating results, and that may vary in frequency or magnitude, enhances the comparability of our results and provides a better baseline for analyzing trends in our business.

We define EBITDA as net income before net interest income or expense, depreciation and amortization expenses and income taxes.  Adjusted EBITDA represents EBITDA as further adjusted for non-cash stock-based compensation expense.  EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA are non-GAAP measures and may not be comparable to similar measures reported by other companies.  EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA have limitations as analytical tools, and you should not consider them in isolation or as a substitute for analysis of our results as reported under GAAP. In the future we may incur expenses or charges such as those added back to calculate Adjusted EBITDA. Our presentation of Adjusted EBITDA should not be construed as an inference that our future results will be unaffected by these items. For further discussion of EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA and for reconciliations of net income, the most directly comparable GAAP measure, to EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA, see “Results of Operations.”

Factors Affecting the Comparability of our Results of Operations

Our results over the past two years have been affected by the following factors, which must be understood in order to assess the comparability of our period-to-period financial performance and condition.

Historical results are not necessarily indicative of the results to be expected for any future period.

We opened 11 and 12 new stores in the second quarters of fiscal 2022 and fiscal 2021, respectively. In connection with these store openings, we incurred expenses of $3.0 million and $2.5 million for the second quarters of fiscal 2022 and fiscal 2021, respectively. We opened 20 new stores and closed two stores, one in connection with a relocation, in the twenty-six weeks ended July 30, 2022 and opened 23 new stores, including two relocated stores, in the twenty-six weeks ended July 31, 2021. In connection with these store openings and closings, we incurred expenses of $5.7 million and $5.1 million for the twenty-six weeks ended July 30, 2022 and July 31, 2021, respectively.

Our business is seasonal in nature and demand is generally the highest in our fourth fiscal quarter due to the holiday sales season.  To prepare for the holiday sales season, we must order and keep in stock more merchandise than we carry during other times of the year and generally engage in additional marketing efforts.  We expect inventory levels, along with accounts payable and accrued expenses, to reach their highest levels in our third and fourth fiscal quarters in anticipation of increased net sales during the holiday sales season.  As a result of this seasonality, and generally because of variation in consumer spending habits, we experience fluctuations in net sales and working capital requirements during the year.  Because we offer a broad selection of merchandise at extreme values, we believe we are less impacted than other retailers by economic cycles which correspond with declines in general consumer spending habits and we believe we still benefit from periods of increased consumer spending.

Results of Operations

The following tables summarize key components of our results of operations for the periods indicated, both in dollars and as a percentage of our net sales.

We derived the condensed consolidated statements of income for the thirteen and twenty-six weeks ended July 30, 2022 and July 31, 2021 from our unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements and related notes.  Our historical results are not necessarily indicative of the results that may be expected in the future.